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11041. Estimating Illicit Flows of Capital via Trade Mispricing: A Forensic Analysis of Data on Switzerland

Author:
Alex Cobham, Petr Janský, and Alex Prats
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper assesses the role of Switzerland as the leading hub for global commodities trading, in terms of the patterns of prices received by original exporting countries and subsequently by Switzerland and other jurisdictions. We find support for the hypotheses that (i) the average prices for commodity exports from developing countries to Switzerland are lower than those to other jurisdictions; and that (ii) Switzerland declares higher (re-)export prices for those commodities than do other jurisdictions. This pattern implies a potential capital loss for commodity exporting developing countries and we provide a range of estimates of that loss - each of which suggests the scale is substantial (the most conservative is around $8 billion a year) and that the issue merits greater research and policy attention. An important first step would be a Swiss commitment to meet international norms of trade transparency.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Developing World
Political Geography:
Europe and Switzerland

11042. Results-Based Payments Reduce the Real Costs of Corruption in Foreign Aid

Author:
Charles Kenny and William Savedoff
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Why don't foreign aid programs simply pay recipients for attaining agreed upon results? The idea has been around for decades, but it continues to meet resistance. Some donors worry that programs that pay for outputs or outcomes would not be able to control how funds are used and would thus be vulnerable to corruption. This brief explains why results-based payment systems are actually likely to be less vulnerable to corruption than traditional input-tracking approaches by making the effects of corruption-the failure of programs to deliver results-more visible.
Topic:
Corruption, Development, and Foreign Aid

11043. Afghanistan: the view from Russia

Author:
Józef Lang
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Russia's current and foreseeable policy towards Afghanistan is multi-vectored, complex and shows, at times, signs of incoherence. Russia views developments in Afghanistan as a strategic challenge and is expressing growing concern over the country's prospects for stability after the withdrawal of ISAF forces by the end of 2014. Russian decision-makers fear that a security vacuum emerging after the withdrawal could destabilise Central Asia and have a negative impact on Russia itself. At the same time, Moscow is concerned with Western military presence in the region, which it regards as interference in its neighbourhood. At tactical level, Russia also sees the situation in Afghanistan as an opportunity to secure its interests both regionally (consolidating its influence in Central Asia) and more widely (in terms of its relations with NATO).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, and Central Asia

11044. Sochi: games with frontiers

Author:
Gerald Stang
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Russia is often seen as a land of extremes – and the narratives for this month's Winter Olympics in Sochi reflect that view. From the record-length 65,000 km Olympic torch run (which included trips to outer space, the north pole and the bottom of the world's deepest lake) to the incredible $51 billion price tag and the Ian Flemingesque threat of attacks from black widow terrorists, the Sochi games have a distinctly Russian flavour. The Kremlin appears to have envisioned the games as a national triumph, not unlike the 2008 Beijing Olympics, with organisational, architectural and sporting successes that could unite the country. However, with global headlines dominated by stories of corruption, human rights abuses, anti-gay laws and the very real threat of terrorist attacks, one might be forgiven for wondering whether the Russian government regrets its decision to bid for the games.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Political Violence, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

11045. EU-Russia: overcoming stagnation

Author:
Nicu Popescu
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
For the best part of the last two decades, EU-Russia summits have alternated between being upbeat events where new grand integration initiatives were launched – the creation of four common spaces in 2005, the partnership for modernisation in 2010 – and rather unfriendly encounters where success was seemingly measured on how impolite the partners could be to one another.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

11046. Japan's new approach to national security

Author:
Elena Atanassova-Cornelis
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
December 2013 marked an important turning point in Japan's evolving security and defence policies. While the debate about Japan's so-called security 'normalisation' has been going on now for more than a decade, by releasing three national security-related documents the conservative government led by Shinzo Abe since 2012 has dissipated any doubts that may still linger regarding the 'why, what and how' of Japan's national security.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Japan and East Asia

11047. Quenching India's thirst for energy

Author:
Costanza Caputi
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
India's impressive economic growth and rapidly expanding population are fuelling the country's demand for energy, and increasingly, shaping India's external relations and foreign policy. In addition to altering regional dynamics in South Asia, this shift will have significant implications for global energy governance, as well as for climate change discussions.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
India

11048. Gezi Park Revolts: For or Against Democracy?

Author:
Atilla Yayla
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The anti-government protests in Turkey emerged as a legitimate and even necessary reaction against police brutality to evolved into violent revolts targeting Prime Minister ErdoÄŸan. Since the initial protests, commentators sought to make sense of the phenomenon with reference to the Gezi youth. A closer examination, however, would reveal the Leftist-Kemalist aura of the protests that came under the tutelage of Taksim Solidarity, an umbrella organization of left-wing associations, and the Republican People's Party. Meanwhile, the general public kept its distance from the violent demonstrations. Not only AK Party supporters but also many liberals and secular-minded democrats found the developments alarming. While the protests marks a step forward for Turkey's once-apathetic opposition groups, their failure prevented a revival of authoritarianism.
Topic:
Development, Environment, and Government
Political Geography:
Turkey

11049. Political Culture and National Identity in Conceptualising the Gezi Park Movement

Author:
Tahir Abbas
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
This essay interprets the Gezi Park protests that began as a local resistance to government plans to level a public park but quickly escalated into a national outburst against government policies. How did the local events receive endorsements from different communities with otherwise ideological and cultural conflicts? This paper argues that political disenfranchisement intersected with society's aspirations with regard to dichotomies between conservatism and secularism, localisation and globalisation, and nationalism and majoritarianism.
Topic:
Globalization, Government, Islam, and Culture
Political Geography:
Turkey

11050. Ergenekon: An Illegitimate Form of Government

Author:
Markar Esayan
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
On August 5th, 2013, an Istanbul court reached its verdict in the Ergenekon coup plot trial, handing down various prison sentences to 247 defendants, including the former Chief of Military Staff and several high-ranking members of the military's command. Although the Supreme Court of Appeals has yet to make a final decision on the 6-year legal battle, the Ergenekon trial has already become part of the country's history as a sign that anti-democratic forces, many of whom date back to the final years of the Ottoman Empire, no longer have free reign. Notwithstanding its limited scope and other shortcomings, the court's decision marks but a humble beginning for Turkey's acknowledgement of the dark chapters in its history, as well as a challenging struggle to replace the laws of rulers with the rule of law.
Topic:
Government and Law
Political Geography:
Turkey