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671. International Cooperation in Counterterrorism: Redefining the Threat and the Requirement

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
It is far easier to talk about international cooperation in fighting terrorism than it is to achieve it. The world has made real progress in recent years – at both the formal and informal levels. At the same time, national differences still pose serious limits to what can be achieved and the threat is changing. Even if one only focuses on the “greater Middle East,” the threat now involves far more than terrorism per se and non-state actors. Cooperation in counter terrorism must deal with these changes and with the fact that there are no clear boundaries between terrorism and insurgency, and that terrorism is only a symptom of a far broader ideological struggle.
Topic:
Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East

672. From the Ferghana Valley to South Waziristan: The Evolving Threat of Central Asian Jihadists

Author:
Thomas M. Sanderson, Daniel Kimmage, and David A. Gordon
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
When Admiral Dennis Blair, the U.S. director of national intelligence, delivered the intelligence community's annual threat assessment to Congress in February 2009, he painted a bleak picture of post-Soviet Central Asia. Describing Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan as a morass of “highly personalized politics, weak institutions, and growing inequalities,” Blair argued that they are “ill-equipped to deal with the challenges posed by Islamic violent extremism, poor economic development, and problems associated with energy, water, and food distribution.”
Topic:
Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Soviet Union

673. A Growing Terrorist Threat? Assessing "Homegrown" Extremism in the United States

Author:
Rick "Ozzie" Nelson and Ben Bodurian
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Five events during the fall of 2009 thrust concerns over “homegrown” terrorism—or extremist violence perpetrated by U.S. legal residents and citizens —into public view: September 19: Najibullah Zazi, an Afghan citizen and U.S. legal resident, was arrested on charges of conspiracy to use weapons of mass destruction. Zazi later admitted to traveling to Pakistan to receive explosives and weapons training and to planning an attack in the United States. October 27: Federal authorities charged U.S. citizen David Coleman Headley with planning to attack a Danish newspaper. In December, revelations surfaced that Headley may have conspired with operatives of Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistani terrorist group, in the 2008 Mumbai attacks. November 5: Major Nidal Malik Hasan, U.S. Army, allegedly killed 13 and wounded 30 at Fort Hood Army Base, outside Killeen, Texas. Early reports revealed that Hasan had previously communicated with a radical Yemeni cleric connected to al Qaeda. November 23: Federal officials unsealed indictments against eight people charged in connection with the alleged recruitment of approximately two dozen Somali Americans to fight with an insurgent group in Somalia. December 9: Five young Northern Virginia men were arrested in Sargodha, Pakistan. U.S. and Pakistani authorities claim that the group traveled there to fight alongside Taliban militants in Afghanistan.
Topic:
Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, America, Somalia, and Virginia

674. Turkey's Geopolitical Assertiveness: Re-evaluating the balance of power in terms of political and economic leverage in Southeastern Europe, the Middle East, and the Caspian Region

Author:
Dimitris Rapidis
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
After 9/11 and the War on Terror, Turkey has progressively and substantially started to re-evaluate its geopolitical assets through a series of active and multi-faceted regional diplomacy and mobilization initiatives. The widening of its sphere of influence and issue entanglement has taken serious proportions, which can be explained in the eyes of an external observer from the acknowledgement of the country's vital geopolitical position, political influence and efficiency, and economic potential and dynamics. As a matter of fact, this shift has been materialized through a series of events that started from the noncompliance of the Turkish government to provide its facility services (i.e. military airports) for the needs of the NATO aircraft troops' expedition in Iraq in 2003, stepping to the advancement of the country's mediating role in the Arab-Israeli Conflict, passing from the enhancement of bilateral relations with Russia, and ending up with the wide and extrovert skepticism over the acquisition of the EU full membership status. Given these facts, Turkey seems to behave more confidently in the regional chessboard by balancing different interests while solidifying its voice and role as a pivotal power. This Policy Brief examines the way Turkey has achieved to re-assert its geopolitical role and aims to put a light on eventual steps that can set the country as an equal interlocutor along with the US, Russia, and the EU, addressing the current global economic crisis and giving possible solutions to the major issues involved in its backyard.
Topic:
NATO and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Turkey

675. When Should We Talk to Terrorists?

Author:
Audrey Kurth Cronin
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The longer a terrorist group has been in existence, the more likely it is to engage in negotiations. Even so, only about 18 percent of terrorist groups engage in talks on strategic issues at all. When groups do enter talks, the most common pattern is for negotiations to drag on, with the conflict occupying a middle ground between a stable cease-fire and high levels of violence. Negotiations do not necessarily result in a cessation of the violence: about half of the groups that have entered negotiations in recent years have continued to be active in their violence as the talks unfolded, typically at a lower level of intensity or frequency. A wide range of variables can determine the efficacy of negotiations. A crucial element in the success or failure of such talks is the ability of policy makers to devise a plan in advance for what will happen when violence does again occur. Those policymakers who are able to unite with their non state negotiating partners in condemning violence are more likely to sustain talks and make progress. Talks with some global affiliates of al-Qaeda, as well as some smaller factions of the Taliban, may hold promise. Talks should not be seen as a “silver bullet” but rather as a way to manage and channel the violence over the long term, a process that often contributes to the decline of groups or their demise, along with other factors.
Topic:
Terrorism
Political Geography:
Taliban

676. A New Approach? Deradicalization Programs and Counterterrorism

Author:
Ellie B. Hearne and Nur Laiq
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Counterterrorism has, in the last ten years, come to the fore of international relations, and remains in the news almost daily. This is due in large part to the ongoing conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan, which in turn have also prompted something of a backlash against such military or “hard” approaches to countering terrorism. Partly in response, states and civil society have sought out softer, often preventive, measures to deal with violent extremism, many of which have been deemed more successful than military approaches and less likely to foment a new generation of violent extremists. However, problems remain.
Topic:
Civil Society, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iraq

677. Values Promotion and Security Management in Euro-Mediterranean Relations: 'Making Democracy Work' or 'Good-Enough Governance'?

Author:
Fabrizio Tassinari and Ulla Holm
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
EU policy towards the southern Mediterranean remains painfully fragmented across different lines: member state initiatives vs. EU initiatives; bilateral EU policies vs. multilateral frameworks. Underpinning these tensions is an ongoing 'securitization' of the Mediterranean debate which centres on threats emanating from the South, including Islamic fundamentalism, terrorism and immigration–or on challenges such as energy. On the other hand, the stated European goal in the region remains the advancement of EU norms and values–to be attained primarily through governance reforms aimed at improving the rule of law. This article will exemplify these discourses by focusing on the case of Italy's Mediterranean policy. In conclusion it sets out two competing scenarios for the future development of Euro-Mediterranean discourse: one based in normative logic termed 'making democracy work'; the other rooted in security logic and termed 'good enough governance'.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe

678. Preparing For A Second Nuclear Age

Author:
Ian Johnstone, Christine Wing, Bruce Jones, Elsina Wainwright, and Fiona Simpson
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
At the time of finalizing this report, the US and Russia have signed an agreement on a replacement to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), just days before the opening of a high-level Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, D.C. After years of divisiveness and lack of progress, it is tempting to conclude that the nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament regime is on the upswing.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia and Washington

679. The Cybersecurity Agenda: Mobilizing for International Action

Author:
Kamlesh Bajaj
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Cyberspace comprises IT networks, computer resources, and all the fixed and mobile devices connected to the global Internet. A nation's cyberspace is part of the global cyberspace; it cannot be isolated to define its boundaries since cyberspace is borderless. This is what makes cyberspace unique. Unlike the physical world that is limited by geographical boundaries in space—land, sea, river waters, and air—cyberspace can and is continuing to expand. Increased Internet penetration is leading to growth of cyberspace, since its size is proportional to the activities that are carried through it.
Topic:
Crime, Globalization, Science and Technology, and Terrorism

680. Central Asian Security: Two Recommendations for International Action

Author:
Jacqueline McLaren Miller
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
An Experts' Group on Euro-Atlantic Security, convened by the East West Institute as part of a larger Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative, is pleased to offer its first series of policy recommendations—an international Central Asian security initiative. Given the Kazakh chair-in-office of the OSCE, this is an opportune time to engage in concrete issues in the region.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe and Central Asia