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42. Choosing our Geography: 12 Points to Restore Meaning to the Eastern Partnership
- Author:
- Elzbieta Kaca, Roderick Parkes, and Anita Emőke Sobják
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The EU is inevitably a geopolitical player, but it seeks to avoid fulfilling this role by all means. This has resulted in increased instability in the Eastern Partnership (EaP) region. In order to bring healthy political choices to its troubled eastern neighbourhood, the EU should follow a 12-point plan focusing on a more nuanced policy towards Russia, stronger regional ties between Eastern partners, tailored EU conditionalities and an integration approach better suited to EaP countries, as well as improving EU political capacities in the region.
- Topic:
- Self Determination, European Union, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
43. Russia's Counterinsurgency in North Caucasus: Performance and Consequence
- Author:
- Ariel Dr. Cohen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The North Caucasus region has been a source of instability for the past several centuries. Most recently, Chechen aspirations to achieve full independence after the break-up of the Soviet Union led to two disastrous wars. While the active phase of the Chechen conflict ended in 2000 – more than a decade ago—the underlying social, economic, and political issues of the region remain. A low-level insurgency continues to persist in the North Caucasus region, with occasional terrorist attacks in the Russian heartland. There are few reasons to expect any substantial improvement in the situation for years to come. Chechnya functions as a de facto independent entity; Islamist influence in Dagestan is growing, terror attacks continue, and the rest of the North Caucasus requires massive presence of Russian security services to keep the situation under control. Preventing the North Caucasus from slipping back into greater instability requires tackling corruption, cronyism, discrimination, and unemployment—something the Kremlin has so far not been very willing to do. “Small wars” in the Caucasus resonated as far away as Boston, MA, and more international attention and cooperation is necessary to prevent the region from blowing up.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Politics, War, International Security, Self Determination, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Soviet Union, Chechnya, and North Caucasus
44. The West and the Muslim Brotherhood After the Arab Spring
- Author:
- Lorenzo Vidino
- Publication Date:
- 02-2013
- Content Type:
- Book
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
- Abstract:
- Few observers foresaw the Arab Spring, but it should not have surprised anyone that the Islamist movements - the most organized movements in the Arab world - became the main beneficiaries of the turmoil that ensued. Islamism, in its gradualist and pragmatic approach embodied by the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots worldwide, seems ready to reap the rewards of its three decades-old decision to abandon violence and focus on grassroots activities. This monumental change has created many concerns among liberals, religious minorities and, more generally, all non-Islamists in the countries where Islamists have won. In addition, Arab states ruled by non-Islamist regimes have expressed concern. The former worry that Islamist ideology - even in its more contemporary, pragmatic form - remains deeply divisive and anti-democratic, often at odds with their values and interests. The latter believe that on foreign policy issues, most of the positions of various Brotherhood-inspired parties are on a collision course with the policies of established regimes in the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Islam, Self Determination, Political Activism, Elections, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Egypt
45. Central Asia's Crisis of Governance
- Author:
- Philip Shishkin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- Located in a strategically important neighborhood amid China, Russia, Afghanistan, and Iran, and sitting atop vast deposits of oil, gas, gold, and uranium, post-Soviet Central Asia is home to some 50 million people living in five countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan . For centuries, the region has drawn the attention of the world's superpowers as they seek leverage over their foes, access to natural resources, or a base from which to influence adjacent regions . For just as long, the societies of Central Asia have been beset by lackluster and often abusive rule, first by warring and insular feudal chiefs, then by colonial conquerors from Russia, and then by their Soviet successors .Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union 20 years ago, the five Central Asian republics have struggled to find viable governance models and to place their economies, long moored to Moscow, on stable footing.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Development, Human Rights, Islam, Governance, and Self Determination
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, China, Iran, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan
46. Simmering Discontent in the Western Sahara
- Author:
- Anouar Boukhars
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Western Sahara, a former Spanish territory annexed by Morocco despite Algerian objections, is a critical region that could quickly become part of the criminal and terrorist networks threatening North Africa and the Sahel. The undergoverned areas abutting the territory are becoming major hubs for drug trafficking, contraband smuggling, and weapons circulation. And Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is extending its reach in the region. The potential for destabilization is real.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Terrorism, and Self Determination
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United States
47. Learning from Sudan's 2011 Referendum
- Author:
- Jon Temin and Lawerence Woocher
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Numerous predictions asserted that the referendum on the secession of southern Sudan would lead to renewed civil war. Despite ongoing violence in many parts of Sudan and South Sudan, the referendum process was largely peaceful. This unanticipated result may prove a relatively rare instance of documented success in conflict prevention. Warnings of impending violence came from many sources. They were timely but tended to be vague. Whether they were overly dire because of faulty assumptions about the conflict dynamics deserves scrutiny. Two prominent narratives explain why the referendum process was peaceful: one that emphasizes domestic factors and another that focuses on international intervention by Africans and westerners. It is highly likely that both contain important explanations for the peaceful referendum. People in Sudan and South Sudan tend to emphasize the domestic narrative; members of the international community tend to focus on international engagement. Several lessons for global conflict prevention can be drawn from the Sudan referendum experience: Preventing conflict in what seems like dire circumstances is possible. Coordinated outside actions should support local conflict-mitigating dynamics. Technical actions, such as election or referendum logistics, can have a significant positive impact on political processes. International actors need to be receptive to taking preventive action. Focusing on successes, as well as failures, is critical.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Ethnic Conflict, Territorial Disputes, and Self Determination
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan
48. Iraq After US Withdrawal: US Policy and the Iraqi Search for Security and Stability
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Sam Khazai
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Iraq is in an ongoing struggle to establish a new national identity, and one that can bridge across the deep sectarian divisions between its Shi'ite s and Sunnis and the ethnic division s between its Arabs and its Kurds and other minorities. At the same time, it must build a new structure of governance, economic, and social order after a period of dictatorship, war, sanctions, occupation and civil conflict that began in 1979 and has continued ever since. It must cope with a steadily growing population, and diversify an economy that is so dependent on petroleum exports that they provide some 95% of its government revenues. This struggle can still end in a new round of serious civil conflict and even in the division of the country. At the same time, Iraq does have great potential and its political divisions and ongoing low - level violence do not mean it cannot succeed in establishing stability, security, and a better life for its people.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Peace Studies, War, Counterinsurgency, and Self Determination
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
49. Self-Determination and National Minorities: the Difficulties of 'Making' a Referendum in Schleswig-Holstein and why to think Twice in Kosovo
- Author:
- Tove H. Malloy
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
- Abstract:
- The unofficial, non-binding referendum in Northern Kosovo and the ongoing debate in the international community about solutions for the Serbian minority bring the problem of self-determination for national minorities back to the fore. The right to vote on national allegiance and sovereign borders has never been a simple matter in European inter-state relations, let alone in international law. such a referendum is not respected unless it holds international backing, even if it is considered a domestic matter. And a referendum on sovereign international borders is usually the result of long and often drawn out geo-political processes, including tediously negotiated settlements after major bellicose conflicts. It is not something national minorities can unilaterally decide to undertake independently. This is at least one of the lessons that European history has taught us. Thus, the case of Northern Kosovo is not likely to be any different than past referenda on national allegiance and sovereign borders. Drawing on the experience of the 1920 referendum in the Danish-German border region, this Issue Brief will put the problem of self-determination for the Serbs in Northern Kosovo in an historical perspective as a basis for a contemporary analysis.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, Self Determination, Minorities, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
50. Toward a Sovereign Afghanistan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- The Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination at Princeton University (LISD) convened the conference, “Toward a Sovereign Afghanistan,” October 20-22, 2011, in the Cecilienhof Castle of Potsdam near Berlin, Germany. More than 40 leading experts from Afghanistan and 14 other states participated in the private, off-the-record conference. The colloquium was opened by Ambassador Staffan de Mistura, Special Envoy for Afghanistan of the UN Secretary-General; Dr. Rangin Spanta, Afghanistan National Security Advisor; Ambassador Michael Steiner, Special Representative of the Germany for Afghanistan and Pakistan; and Ambassador Vygaudas Ušackas, Special Representative and Head of Mission of the EU's Mission for Afghanistan. Wolfgang Danspeckgruber, LISD Director, chaired the colloquium.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil Society, Economics, Islam, Peace Studies, and Self Determination
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Germany