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3052. Report of the Fact-Finding Mission to Lebanon inquiring into the causes, circumstances and consequences of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri
- Author:
- Peter FitzGerald
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- On 14 February 2005, an explosion in downtown Beirut killed twenty persons, among them the former Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri. The United Nations' Secretary-General dispatched a Fact-Finding Mission to Beirut to inquire into the causes, the circumstances and the consequences of this assassination. Since it arrived in Beirut on 25 February, the Mission met with a large number of Lebanese officials and representatives of different political groups, performed a thorough review of the Lebanese investigation and legal proceedings, examined the crime scene and the evidence collected by the local police, collected and analyzed samples from the crime scene, and interviewed some witnesses in relation to the crime. The specific 'causes' for the assassination of Mr. Hariri cannot be reliably asserted until after the perpetrators of this crime are brought to justice. However, it is clear that the assassination took place in a political and security context marked by an acute polarization around the Syrian influence in Lebanon and a failure of the Lebanese State to provide adequate protection for its citizens. Regarding the circumstances, the Mission is of the view that the explosion was caused by a TNT charge of about 1000 KG placed most likely above the ground. The review of the investigation indicates that there was a distinct lack of commitment on the part of the Lebanese authorities to investigate the crime effectively, and that this investigation was not carried out in accordance with acceptable international standards. The Mission is also of the view that the Lebanese investigation lacks the confidence of the population necessary for its results to be accepted. The consequences of the assassination could be far-reaching. It seems to have unlocked the gates of political upheavals that were simmering throughout the last year. Accusations and counter-accusations are rife and aggravate the ongoing political polarization. Some accuse the Syrian security services and leadership of assassinating Mr. Hariri because he became an insurmountable obstacle to their influence in Lebanon. Syrian supporters maintain that he was assassinated by "the enemies of Syria"; those who wanted to create international pressure on the Syrian leadership in order to accelerate the demise of its influence in Lebanon and/or start a chain of reactions that would eventually force a 'regime change' inside Syria itself. Lebanese politicians from different backgrounds expressed to the Mission their fear that Lebanon could be caught in a possible showdown between Syria and the international community, with devastating consequences for Lebanese peace and security. After gathering the available facts, the Mission concluded that the Lebanese security services and the Syrian Military Intelligence bear the primary responsibility for the lack of security, protection, law and order in Lebanon. The Lebanese security services have demonstrated serious and systematic negligence in carrying out the duties usually performed by a professional national security apparatus. In doing so, they have severely failed to provide the citizens of Lebanon with an acceptable level of security and, therefore, have contributed to the propagation of a culture of intimidation and impunity. The Syrian Military Intelligence shares this responsibility to the extent of its involvement in running the security services in Lebanon. It is also the Mission's conclusion that the Government of Syria bears primary responsibility for the political tension that preceded the assassination of former Prime Minister Mr. Hariri. The Government of Syria clearly exerted influence that goes beyond the reasonable exercise of cooperative or neighborly relations. It interfered with the details of governance in Lebanon in a heavy-handed and inflexible manner that was the primary reason for the political polarization that ensued. Without prejudice to the results of the investigation, it is obvious that this atmosphere provided the backdrop for the assassination of Mr. Hariri. It became clear to the Mission that the Lebanese investigation process suffers from serious flaws and has neither the capacity nor the commitment to reach a satisfactory and credible conclusion. To find the truth, it would be necessary to entrust the investigation to an international independent commission, comprising the different fields of expertise that are usually involved in carrying out similarly large investigations in national systems, with the necessary executive authority to carry out interrogations, searches, and other relevant tasks. Furthermore, it is more than doubtful that such an international commission could carry out its tasks satisfactorily - and receives the necessary active cooperation from local authorities - while the current leadership of the Lebanese security services remains in office. It is the Mission's conclusion that the restoration of the integrity and credibility of the Lebanese security apparatus is of vital importance to the security and stability of the country. A sustained effort to restructure, reform and retrain the Lebanese security services will be necessary to achieve this end, and will certainly require assistance and active engagement on the part of the international community. Finally, it is the Mission's view that international and regional political support will be necessary to safeguard Lebanon's national unity and to shield its fragile polity from unwarranted pressure. Improving the prospects of peace and security in the region would offer a more solid ground for restoring normalcy in Lebanon.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
3053. Is the European Economy a Patient and the Union its Doctor? On Jobs and Growth in Europe
- Author:
- Sjef Ederveen, Albert van der Hoorst, and Paul Tang
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- A stronger focus on jobs and growth is part of an effort to renew the Lisbon strategy. Yet the view that economic expansion contributes to maintaining Lisbon's other goals of social cohesion as well as the environment is somewhat optimistic. First, there are structural trade-offs among the central elements of the Lisbon strategy. Escaping these trade-offs temporarily is sometimes possible but requires policy changes. Second, higher productivity (growth) may not provide more structural room for governments to manoeuvre. It leads to higher tax receipts but also to higher public expenditures since public sector wages and social security benefits are linked to productivity. In contrast, more employment (jobs) is associated with a smaller public sector. But to engineer the increase in employment, changes in welfare state arrangements are needed. In other words, focussing solely on the sick child will probably harm the other children.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Economics, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Lisbon
3054. A European Balkans?
- Author:
- Daniel Serwer, Jacques Rupnik, and Boris Shmelev
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The Chairman recalled the reasons for holding this particular session. On the one hand, at the Thessaloniki meeting of the European Council (June 2003), the prospect was laid out of the Balkans being included, over time, within the European Union; hence, the title of the session. How that vision is to be fulfilled is obviously very much open to question, which is indeed one of reasons underlying the work of the new International Commission on the Balkans chaired by former Italian Prime Minister Giuliano Amato. On the other hand, short-term events are going to put the Balkans at the centre of European concerns over the coming months in the run-up to the final status discussions in mid-2005: the Macedonian referendum in early November, the deployment of European Union forces in Bosnia-Herzegovina (operation Altea) in December and the rising expectations of Kosovar Albanians following the October 2004 elections. To introduce the session three papers were presented.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Macedonia
3055. Transforming National Armed Forces in South East Europe - from the Social to the Military Challenge - 9th Workshop of the PfP Consortium Study Group "Regional Stability in South East Europe"
- Author:
- Predrag Jureković, Ernst M. Felberbauer, and Plamen Pantev
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Austrian National Defence Academy
- Abstract:
- The major security problems of our time are international terrorism, failed states and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. These are challenges on a global scale.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States
3056. From Revolution to Reform - Georgia's Struggle with Democratic Institution Building and Security Sector Reform
- Author:
- Eden Cole and Philipp H. Fluri
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Austrian National Defence Academy
- Abstract:
- The theme of this book is 'Georgian Security Sector Governance after the 'Rose Revolution''. After the downfall of Shevardnadze's authoritarian regime, apostrophied by many Western observers as 'mild', and therefore worthy of support, there have been definite changes in how security is perceived. 'Good governance' means introducing fundamental political changes according to the principles and practices of democracy. Although the countries that we recognize as democratic do not have completely identical political mechanisms, methods and procedures for governance, it is not difficult to determine whether a political system is democratic or not. For Georgia, as for all transition countries, the first important matter on the reform agenda was setting up the structure of governance, that is, writing constitutions and laws, erecting political institutions, and making them work. External experts who assess how well security sector governance functions in those countries designated as 'new democracies' sometimes neglect to take into account the fact that they indeed are new; that they have not had the many years, even many centuries, that the Western countries have had to develop the ways and means, the habits and customs, of their Executives and Legislatures.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, International Organization, Non-Governmental Organization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Balkans and Georgia
3057. After Intervention: Public Security Management in Post-Conflict Societies - From Intervention to Sustainable Local Ownership
- Author:
- Anja H. Ebnöther and Philipp H. Fluri
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Austrian National Defence Academy
- Abstract:
- The transition from interventionist (military) peace-keeping to local (civilian) ownership of public security management has proved not only to be a severe challenge for most peace-keeping operations and their civilian administrators, but also a reason for such operations being prolonged at tremendous cost. In many cases, peace-keeping operations and/or other international agents rapidly became part of the local economy, and thus contributed to the preservation of the status quo rather than to a sustainable process leading toward local governance; meanwhile local police organs - often remnants of the winning force in the antecedent conflict - remained tribal or clannish in their approaches and interests. They could thus hardly be seen as enforcement agencies of a law which remains equally applied to all citizens.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, International Organization, and War
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Balkans
3058. Defence Institutions Building - 2005 Partnership Action Plan on Defence Institution Building - Regional Conference
- Author:
- Eden Cole and Philipp H. Fluri
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Austrian National Defence Academy
- Abstract:
- At their meeting in Istanbul, Allied Heads of State and Government launched the Partnership Action Plan on Defence Institution Building (PAP-DIB). EAPC Heads of State and Government also endorsed this initiative. PAP-DIB reflects Allies' and Partners' common views on modern and democratically responsible defence institutions. It provides an EAPC definition of defence reform and a framework for common reflection and exchange of experience on related problems. It is to help interested Partners to reform and re structure their defence institutions to meet their needs and international commitments.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Democratization, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, and Istanbul
3059. The Defense Monitor: Dear Friends Colleagues
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- Many of you are aware of CDI's 30-year history of research and commentary on U.S. defense topics. You may also have noticed the expanding breadth of our international projects and activities, such as our ground-breaking China Security Bulletin featuring contributions from a retired Chinese general, and a forthcoming report on Russia's defense spending by a Russian scholar who heads our Moscow office. To better reflect our global scope and project diversity, we have created the World Security Institute — which can be thought of as our “holding company.” We felt that this title better describes all of our activities that now encompass a wider definition of “security.”
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Disaster Relief, Government, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and Moscow
3060. Nontraditional Security Threats in the U.S.-Mexico Bilateral Relationship: Overview and Recommendations
- Author:
- John Bailey
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- Before September 11, 2001, security—primarily, anti-drug trafficking efforts—ranked among the top two or three issues in Mexico-U.S. relations. Since that day, security has dominated the U.S. policy agenda in foreign affairs, including the bilateral agenda. Mexico, which had put more emphasis on migration reform, has accepted the new reality as defined by the United States. This background paper identifies some of the more pressing nontraditional security threats in the U.S.-Mexico bilateral relationship and suggests recommendations to address them. Inevitably somewhat U.S.-centric, my approach is to cover a good deal of ground in broad-brush strokes, providing only enough detail to buttress the main points and illustrate the recommendations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States and Mexico