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1141. Cardiff: Birthplace of a new Transatlantic Narrative?

Author:
Jo Coelmont
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Cardiff has the potential to turn into a "great meeting", if the focus is on forging a new and attractive narrative to underpin a solid transatlantic security relationship, in which NATO finds its place. But Europeans must become serious on defence-and not only because the US asks for it. Otherwise, the EU and for sure the European States will become strategic bystanders and even objects of great power competition. That would be a real game-changer. That is why, in Cardiff, "we" ought to be ambitious enough to deal with the real issues, including the relationship between NATO and the CSDP.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

1142. Divided Stands the Visegrad? The V4 have been united towards the Ukraine crisis but remain split concerning Russia

Author:
András Rácz
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The destabilization of Ukraine and the possible escalation of the crisis have presented a direct security risk to the Visegrad countries - Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary - particularly concerning military security, the potential interruption of energy transit, and the possible influx of refugees. These factors have forced the Visegrad states to show unprecedented unity and activism in addressing the crisis. However, regarding the possibility of sanctioning Russia, the Visegrad Group is unable to take a joint position. The main reason for this is that Russia does not pose a direct military threat to the region. Consequently the individual policies of the Visegrad countries towards Russia are defined by a constellation of geopolitical concerns, normative motivations, business interests and domestic political ambitions, which are decidedly different in all four cases. Domestic political motivations, such as the will to increase domestic legitimacy, and concerns over the economic effects of sanctions, obviously influence the foreign policy actions of the Visegrad governments. However, Viktor Orbán of Hungary was the only one to break the Visegrad solidarity on Ukraine with his domestically-motivated remarks in May 2014 and demanding autonomy for Hungarians living in the Trans-Carpathian region. As most normative, business and domestic political motivations are of a lasting strategic nature, it is highly likely that the general incoherence of the Visegrad region regarding Russia will prevail.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and International Security
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Poland

1143. Peacebuilding and Postconflict Recovery: What Works and What Does Not?

Author:
Robert Muggah and Christian Altpeter
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The fourth International Expert Forum (IEF), "Peacebuilding and Postconflict Recovery: What Works and What Does Not?" was focused squarely on the challenges of rebuilding peace in countries and societies emerging from conflict and the role of external actors in supporting these processes. The IEF was held at the International Peace Institute (IPI) on May 23, 2013, and participants considered the track record of peacebuilding, political and economic transition processes, as well as rule of law and transitional justice. The goal was to distill insights and identify policy implications. This IEF was the fourth meeting in a series of high-level seminars dealing with the conflict cycle. Previous forums considered conflict prevention, the mitigation of consequences of conflict, and peacekeeping. The IEF serves as an informal platform for exchange and dialogue among researchers, practitioners, and decision makers on issues related to conflict prevention, peacemaking, and peacebuilding. The IEF convenes one-day workshops at IPI in New York and is a joint initiative by IPI, the Folke Bernadotte Academy (FBA), the SecDev Foundation, and the Center for International Peace Operations (ZIF).
Topic:
Security, Peace Studies, War, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
New York

1144. Libyan Arms and Regional Instability

Author:
Francesco Strazzari
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
As security continues to be a primary challenge in post-Qadhafi Libya, the availability of weapons to nearby opposition groups and armed insurgencies is a source of major concern for Libya's neighbours and the international community. Uncontrolled weapons proliferation and the rise of new armed groups have gone hand in hand across various conflict fronts. While what is known about weapons acquisition dynamics does not make it possible to establish a strict causal relationship, by observing variations in the various contexts, critical factors can be identified, such as the emergence of a protection market, the multiplication of tactical options and splintering processes, which facilitate comprehension of how greater circulation of weapons is related to regional volatility and destabilisation.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Libya

1145. Supporting the Transitions in North Africa: The Case for a Joined-Up Approach

Author:
Eduard Soler i Lecha, Hélène Michou, and José Ignacio
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The EU's response to the Arab Spring is seen as one of its biggest missed opportunities. It has been unable to bring together its different tools of foreign, development and security policy into a strategic joined-up approach. The interconnectedness of the socio-economic and political demands of the popular uprisings across the north of Africa represented a unique opportunity to implement such a joined-up approach. The EU's ambitious rhetoric and pledges to promote 'deep democracy' have not been matched at policy level in the fields of money, market or mobility. Whilst certain member states have sought to overcome the different operating logics of the development, diplomatic and security communities in their regional Arab Partnership programmes, a number of structural and circumstantial factors limit the effectiveness of these attempts, at both the EU and member state level.
Topic:
Security and Development
Political Geography:
North Africa

1146. System Dynamics as a Tool for Security Research

Author:
Jakub Drmola
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Obrana a strategie (Defence & Strategy)
Institution:
University of Defence
Abstract:
This article aims to introduce system dynamics as a new methodology or an analytical framework for research in the field of security and strategic studies and to shed some light upon its basic principles and building blocks. It offers a tool which can describe and model conflicts, actors, threats and even whole security concepts in a new manner and discover new causalities or even predict future states in the process. Even though the origins of system dynamics can be found in an entirely different disciplines, it recently found its place even in the domain of security research, where it is being used to model current threats. Apart from dissecting merits of this method, this article should also provide sufficient information to allow the reader to understand any other paper using system dynamics as its primary methodology.
Topic:
Security

1147. Critical Comments on Current Research Agenda in Cyber Security

Author:
Nikola Schmidt
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Obrana a strategie (Defence & Strategy)
Institution:
University of Defence
Abstract:
The following article presents an alternative critical perspective of the cyber security research agenda. The article opens with criticism of the securitization discourse that uses analogies of historical events with events in cyber space. The author argues that such an approach is inappropriate, and that events of such impact are very unlikely to take place. The events that have already shaped our way of thinking - such as the Estonian attacks - caused significant damage to the respective country; nevertheless, the very same attack today would not do the same harm, thanks to the different level of critical infrastructure in Estonia. Another example, Stuxnet, is also an event of high impact, but with a low probability of happening in the future. Due to the complexity of the supporting operation of the attack, it would not lead to a cyber world war. The future will bring more complex, less visible, completely covered and precise operations that will take advantage of all cyber space features, rather than a cybergeddon comparable to some historical event or a nuclear scenario. The author proposes three directions of desired research agenda in the cyber security field. Firstly, the development of normative framework aimed at a better understanding of cyber events; secondly, a thorough research of cyber space leading to appropriate space conceptualization; and thirdly, the reevaluation of cyber warfare concept in the light of the cyber space novelty.
Topic:
Security

1148. The Security Question in the post-Mubarak Egypt: The Security Void in Sinai

Author:
Helena Burgrová
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Obrana a strategie (Defence & Strategy)
Institution:
University of Defence
Abstract:
The article deals with the security situation in Egypt after the ousting of Mubarak's government in 2011. It addresses implications of the security void in the Sinai Peninsula, which are closely related to the failure of the Egyptian security forces to ensure security in this area. The focus is turned at the growth of violent attacks against security personnel and cross-border attacks aimed at Israeli targets. By comparing three periods - before the 2011 uprising; between the 2011 uprising and 2013 Mursi's deposition; and the period after Mursi's deposition on July 3, 2013 - the article maps changes in the pattern of violent conduct. It documents a significant rise of violence and intensification of Jihadist activities in the region after the uprising of 2011. Mursi's deposition triggered further intensification of violence in the region, as well as novel patterns of violence such as the use of sophisticated weaponry and methods of combat (e.g. suicide attacks). This change is linked to the expansion of the Jihadist agenda and the greater involvement of the Jihadist groups in the battle against the Egyptian security forces. The article suggests that the core of the security crisis is closely linked to negligence and marginalization of the local population by the government. Therefore, as long as Sinai is approached merely through firm security measures that fail to address the developmental needs of the locals, the security of the region cannot be guaranteed.
Topic:
Security and Government
Political Geography:
Egypt and Sinai Peninsula

1149. Israeli Conceptualization of the Border´s Defensibility: Time for Change?

Author:
Libor Kutěj
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Obrana a strategie (Defence & Strategy)
Institution:
University of Defence
Abstract:
The article deals with important aspects determining the defensibility of the State of Israel borderlines and its current conditions. It outlines trends and tendencies in Israeli approach to this burning issue and depicts important political and military - strategic factors concerning Israeli concept for countering military and paramilitary (i.e. terrorist, insurgent etc.) threats in border region. Particular focus is dedicated to the new regional security situation after the outbreak of the Arab Spring and its impact on securing the Israeli sovereignty. Furthermore, it depicts the question whether current unsatisfied security situation in surrounding Arab countries could eventually turn into an outbreak of conventional military conflict and/or whether the State of Israel could possibly face concentrated strain of radical Islamic groups operating in the border area. Last but not least, the article concludes an outline of Israeli doctrinal approaches and examines the impact of budgetary restraints into the development of IDF.
Topic:
Security and Islam
Political Geography:
Israel

1150. Secrets and Leaks: The Dilemma of State Secrecy

Author:
Geoffrey R. Stone
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
Talk about good timing. In his new book, Rahul Sagar examines all of the issues now roiling the nation in the Edward Snowden controversy. Sagar explores the fundamental question: is there any way we can know that claims of state secrecy are in fact being used to protect the national security rather than to conceal the abuse of authority? As Sagar notes, that challenge has been with us from the Founding, but it is more acute now than ever because of the changing nature of the threats our nation faces and because of the complex nature of the sources and methods we need to employ if we are to respond effectively to those threats in the modern world.
Topic:
Security and Government