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142. Time to Move from Tactics to Strategy on Iran
- Publication Date:
- 04-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- President Barack Obama faces a relatively short timeframe in which to peacefully address the most significant near-term foreign policy and security challenge for his second term. Due to Iran's persistent nuclear advances, Obama's repeated pledge that the United States would stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons could well be tested in the coming months, requiring intensified diplomatic engagement and careful calculation of the repercussions (regionally and globally) of a military response.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Atlantic Ocean
143. Enablers of the Syrian Conflict
- Publication Date:
- 02-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- The Syrian conflict is a human rights catastrophe. Over the past two years, nearly 70,000 people have died, mostly civilians, including more than 3,700 children, and nearly one million refugees have fled the country. Although both sides of the conflict are responsible for atrocities, the regime of President Bashar al-Assad is responsible for the vast majority. The regime's security forces have used indiscriminate bombings, intentional mass killings, rape, and torture to kill and brutalize civilians. There is no end in sight.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
144. Iranian nuclear weapons: a self-fulfilling prophecy?
- Author:
- Mariano Aguirre
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- The debate about the Iranian nuclear programme has heated up over recent months, with the danger that the situation could get out of control and violence may erupt. Currently, the main threatis an escalation of violence between Iran and the U.S. Strategically, an attack will further decrease U.S. legitimacy in a region already in turmoil and will isolate Israel even further. The consequencesof these processes are both serious and unpredictable.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, and Israel
145. Stall Speed: Assessing Delay of the Iranian Nuclear Program via Israeli Military Strike
- Author:
- Austin Long
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- The possibility of Israeli military action against the Iranian nuclear program has existed since at least 2002. However, beginning in the fall of 2011, Israeli rhetoric and international concerns about military action against Iran have reached unprecedented levels. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak began to proclaim that Iran was nearing a “zone of immunity” to Israeli attack and therefore Israel would have to act soon. In contrast, former heads of Israel's foreign and domestic intelligence services question the utility of such an attack.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, and Israel
146. Iran's Nuclear Ambitions and Future Prospects
- Author:
- Olli Heinonen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- International diplomacy efforts dealing with Iran's nuclear program continue to fill the daily news headlines. The efforts of P5+1, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) have tried, in various formats, to encourage and enforce Iran to comply with the provisions of the Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) and its Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA) to ensure that Iran's nuclear program is not used as a cover for the development of nuclear weapons. The challenge of discovering what has taken place as well as currently with Iran's nuclear ambitions is difficult not only because of Tehran's obstructionism, but also because the same nuclear technologies, particularly uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing, can be used for both civilian and military purposes.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iran
147. Antiproliferation: Tackling Proliferation by Engaging the Private Sector
- Author:
- Ian J. Stewart
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This paper exploits the concept of antiproliferation to analyze the potential for mobilizing the private sector in countering the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Illicit trade from the international marketplace plays a direct role in sustaining the nuclear and missile programs of several countries, including Iran, in defiance of UN sanctions. These programs also profit indirectly from trade-enabling services, such as insurance, financing, and shipping. It is argued that almost all firms will work to avoid direct involvement with proliferation for a variety of reasons, but that firms often lack the systems, expertise, and information required to identify illicit proliferation-related trade.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Sanctions
148. The Myanmar Economy: Tough Choices
- Author:
- Lex Rieffel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The new Government of Myanmar has astonished the world since it took office at the end of March 2011 by the pace and scope of policy changes it has introduced in a country that has underperformed most other Asian countries for decades. Not a single analyst inside or outside Myanmar before President Thein Sein’s inaugural address predicted the changes that many now label “breathtaking.” The global policy community and the media have focused heavily on the political changes and challenges, giving less attention to the economic changes and challenges than they probably deserve. This paper focuses on 21 high-priority economic issues facing the Thein Sein administration in mid-2012.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia and Myanmar
149. Ending 50 years of military rule? Prospects for peace, democracy and development in Burma
- Author:
- Tom Kramer
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Burma has been under military rule since 1962. However, in 2011 a new political system was introduced and a new military-backed government inaugurated that has reached out to the democratic opposition and armed ethnic opposition groups seeking more autonomy. Both of these groups reject the new constitution, which seeks to entrench the army's power.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Political Economy, Poverty, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Burma
150. Oil sanctions on Iran: Cracking under pressure?
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- In 2012 Western sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran's oil and gas industry, aimed at putting economic pressure on it to change its nuclear policy, have reached an unprecedented level. Since the Iranian revolution in 1979, Iran has been in a state of hostility with the US, and has had cool relations, at best, with most European states. Sanctions against official Iranian financial institutions, individuals associated with the Islamic Republic and organisations suspected of being involved in nuclear proliferation activities have been mounting for some time. However, it is only recently that Iran's oil and gas sector has been specifically targeted by both the US and the EU in such a co-ordinated manner. Importantly, this marks the first time since the foundation of the Islamic Republic of Iran that the EU member states have collectively put in place sanctions on the export of Iranian crude oil—until now an action that, with a few exceptions, had only been taken by the US. The stakes have therefore been raised in Iran's confrontation with Western powers over the nuclear issue.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, Oil, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East