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51. Rising Food Prices: Drivers and Implications for Development

Author:
Alex Evans
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Global food prices have risen 83 per cent over the last three years. The increases have been driven by high income growth in emerging economies (probably the single most significant factor), use of crops for biofuels, the relative inelasticity of supply, historically low stock levels and some speculative investment. More recently, national concerns over inflation and prices have led some countries to reduce exports and others to try to build up stocks – creating a feedback loop that feeds on itself to drive prices up still further. In the medium to longer term, 'scarcity trends' – climate change, the cost of energy inputs, scarcity of land and water – could limit the supply-side response. In the immediate term, the priority is to increase both the volume and the quality of humanitarian assistance available to poor people, including by moving away from in-kind food aid and towards cash transfers or voucher systems – although it is important to be clear that there are outstanding questions about how these social protection systems will work, and they should not be seen as a panacea. The issue of compensatory financing may also arise for some countries facing balanceof- payments difficulties. In the longer term, the key challenge is to increase the supply of food: the World Bank estimates that demand for food will rise by 50 per cent by 2030, as a result of rising affluence and growing world population. Achieving this challenge will require something close to a revolution, and a massive investment in agriculture in developing countries. If supply fails to keep pace with rising demand, then the question of 'fair shares' is likely to emerge as a significant global issue. Already, the effect of a burgeoning global middle class switching to diets with more meat and dairy products – both relatively inefficient in terms of grain use – has been to reduce the affordability of staple foods for poorer consumers.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance, World Bank, and Population

52. Mission Not Yet Accomplished: Managing Water Resources in the Nile River Basin

Author:
Ashok Swain
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:
River runoff is widely accepted as one of the most important sources of avaiable fresh water for human consumption. Worldwide, there are 263 major river systems that cross national boundaries and are responsible for 85 percent of the earth's runoff. When two or more countries are dependent on the same river system, upstream withdrawal, pollution or management can lead not only to upstream-downstream conflict but also to cooperation. In recent years, policymaking and research communities have been engaged in exploring various means to transform conflict into riparian cooperation in these international river basins. The following analysis explores this notion through a closer look at the Nile River, which has long been considered the longest international river in the world. Many analysts have considered that the Nile River has a high potential to induce interstate conflict. At least for the greater part of the 20th century, the Nile River has been the source of political tension among three of its major riparian countries—Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia. In the face of potential armed conflict and regional instability, the Nile basin countries, in cooperation with the international community, have recently begun working for basin-wide cooperative solutions. The main aim of this paper is to suggest policy measures that riparian countries, as well as the international community, might be in a position to adopt, which could further reduce tension over scarce water resources and facilitating effective and lasting cooperation in the Nile basin. It is crucial not only for the region, but also for global peace and development, to achieve success in bringing the countries together in the basin for efficient benefit sharing of resources of this important river.
Topic:
Population
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Ethiopia, and Egypt

53. Crimes Against Humanity: Directing Attacks Against A Civilian Population

Author:
Chile Eboe-Osuji
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal of Legal Studies
Institution:
The Africa Law Institute
Abstract:
In international criminal law, to sustain a charge of crimes against humanity, the Prosecution must prove, among other elements, that the perpetrator was involved in an attack directed against a civilian population. In Prosecutor v Fofana and Kondewa, the Special Court for Sierra Leone found that the Prosecution failed to prove, beyond a reasonable doubt, that the civilian population was the 'primary object' of the attack and acquitted the accused on the counts of murder and other inhumane acts as crimes against humanity. The Appeals Chamber accepted this view. However, it reversed Trial Chamber I on the ground that the Prosecution evidence did establish that the civilian population had been the primary, as opposed to incidental, target of the attack. The author suggests that this is an error resulting from the undue jurisprudential pre-occupation with the meaning of 'primary' in relation to the notion of attack against a civilian population. Instead, the inquiry should focus on whether the civilian population was 'intentionally' targeted in the attack, notwithstanding that it may not have been the primary object of the attack. He submits that this approach would be consistent with the classic theory of mens rea in criminal law.
Topic:
Population

54. PolicyWatch #1259: AFRICOM: A New American Military Command

Author:
Gabe Scheinmann
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This month, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates will appoint a commander for the newly created U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM). Set to launch sometime this fall and become fully operational with 1,000 American personnel by September 2008, AFRICOM will be responsible for all African countries except Egypt. Although no African state poses a direct threat to the United States, Washington is concerned about the growth of al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups throughout the continent. Africa has the fastest population growth rate in the world, and several of its countries, such as Nigeria, Angola, Libya, and Sudan, are important sources of crude oil.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Population
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Sudan, Libya, and Angola

55. Hegemonic Project or Survival Strategy? Language Rights in the Former Soviet Space

Author:
Kitty Lam
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The Soviet Union's collapse brought to surface a complex ethno-political situation in the territory it formerly spanned. Changes in interstate boundaries separated various ethnic populations from their perceived homelands. This post-Soviet landscape has created policy dilemmas for the Russian government, as some 25 million Russians found themselves living outside the borders of the Russian Federation. How Russian leaders have dealt with issues pertaining to its 'compatriots' in the non-Russian Soviet successor states has become a subject of interest to Western observers. In particular, Western analysts have been observing the expression of 'ethnic diaspora' issues in Russian foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Development, and Population
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia

56. Shrinking and Growing Metropolitan Areas - Asymmetric Real Estate Price Reactions?

Author:
Lisa Dust and Wolfgang Maennig
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
The population of Germany will be one of the first in the western hemisphere to undergo considerable permanent shrinkage. In view of the relatively low elasticities of supply and demand significant negative price reactions might be expected. This work supplements existing studies by estimating real estate prices for single-family homes on the disaggregate level of Germany’s metropolitan areas. It highlights asymmetric price reactions: growth in population numbers has no significant price effects, whereas declining population numbers lead to significant negative price effects.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, Population, Real Estate, and Price
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

57. Can Rich Countries Afford to Grow Old?

Author:
Gary Burtless
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Observers in many industrialized countries believe population aging represents a serious economic threat. Increases in the percentage of the population past retirement age may impose unsustainable burdens on future workers. Either taxes or government debt will have to rise substantially to pay for old-age income support. This paper considers the extent of these burdens and corrects the widespread impression that the burdens are unsupportable. Population aging means that contributions needed to support the retired elderly must rise. But this extra burden will be at least partly offset by a reduced need to support the dependent young, who will become relatively less numerous. The extra burden of an aging population would be smaller still if labor force participation rates among the working-age and elderly populations increased. Indeed, employment rates among the nonaged have risen in nearly all the industrialized countries as a growing percentage of women has entered the work force. Many countries, including the United States, have adopted policies to encourage work among people past the traditional retirement age.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Economics, Government, and Population
Political Geography:
United States

58. Measuring the Economic Impact of an EU–GCC Free Trade Agreement

Author:
David Kernohan and Dean A. DeRosa
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Economic growth rates in the Gulf region have languished in recent years and need to be raised to accommodate the rapidly growing populations and social aspirations of the region. Using a simple model of world trade, this report investigates the economic impacts of the new customs union of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the proposed free trade agreement (FTA) between the GCC and European Union. The quantitative results suggest that the new customs union and proposed EU-GCC free trade agreement both appreciably expand trade and improve economic welfare in the GCC countries, with little significant economic impact on the EU. As expected, the FTA results in larger GCC economic gains than the customs union because it affords GCC consumers greater opportunity to enjoy imports at internationally competitive prices. Although welfare gains under the proposed FTA closely approximate those under open regionalism (concerted trade liberalisation on a most favoured nation basis), reducing the 5% GCC common external tariff to about 3% as part of the FTA negotiations would not only ensure near-maximum trade performance and welfare gains but also add further to the attractiveness of the GCC countries as a location for foreign direct investment.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Treaties and Agreements, and Population
Political Geography:
Europe

59. The Choice for Russia: Compete or Fail

Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Russia is at a crossroads. Current levels of national economic growth cannot be sustained without significantly restructuring the country's economic system. If economic growth is not sustained, financing for important social reforms will face serious strains, and expectations that have been built up among the Russian population over the past five years will go unrealized. As a result, the political system and the population's long - term well being will be put at risk. To counter this danger, Russia needs to change its national consciousness away from social paternalism and towards competitiveness. This needs to be implemented in a way that Russian citizens, politicians and business people can understand and support. Russia can only meet its expectations of long - term growth and a higher overall standard of living by increasing levels of competitiveness across sectors and delivering tangible and positive results to its citizens.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Population, and Reform
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

60. Sustainability Values, Attitudes, and Behaviors: A Review of Multi-national and Global Trends

Author:
Anthony A. Leiserowitz, Robert W. Kates, and Thomas M. Parris
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This review analyzes five efforts to define sustainability values, including the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the Earth Charter, the UN Millennium Declaration, and the Global Scenario Group. It then summarizes empirical trends in sustainability values, attitudes, and behaviors, as measured by multi-national and global-scale surveys, related to human and economic development, the environment, and driving forces (population, affluence, technology, and entitlements). The review also summarizes empirical trends related to the values identified by the Millennium Declaration as essential to international relations (e.g., freedom and democracy, equality and shared responsibility), and broader contextual values (e.g., capitalism, globalization, institutional trust, and social change) that have sustainability implications. It then identifies several important attitude-behavior gaps and barriers. Finally this review draws several conclusions regarding future research needs and the value, attitude, and behavioral change needed to achieve sustainability.
Topic:
Environment, Poverty, Science and Technology, Population, Sustainable Development Goals, and Survey
Political Geography:
Global Focus