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931. The Uncertain Politics behind Iraq's Election: Political Controversies and the Formation of a Viable Government

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Elena Derby
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Although Iraq has made political progress over the past few years it still falls far short of the level of political accommodation it needs to control its ethnic and sectarian divisions, ensure adequate representation for all ethno-religious groups, and create the conditions for effective governance. Despite the success of the national elections in March 2010, when over two thirds of the population defied threats of violence to cast their ballots—with a particularly strong turnout among Sunnis and Kurds—it is still unclear whether Iraq can form a stable ―national coalition government. If Iraq is successful, it will still take years for the new elected and appointed officials to develop the capacity they need to govern effectively.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

932. Briefing on the Crisis in Thailand on Capitol Hill for Congressional Staff

Author:
Ernest Z. Bower
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Five-point plan 1.Respect for the monarchy 2.To resolve fundamental problems of social injustice. 3.To ensure that the media operate constructively 4.To establish facts about violent incidents 5.To establish mutually acceptable political rules
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Thailand

933. Iraq: Creating a Strategic Partnership

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Iraq is changing rapidly, although the outcomes of many of these changes remain unclear. The country faces major challenges in many areas—ranging from quelling the ongoing violence to achieving political accommodation and economic stability. Each of these challenges is critical to the future security and stability of Iraq: Defeat the threat posed by the remnants of the Sunni insurgency, neo-Ba'athists, and Shi'ite militias. Deal with the risk of new forms of ethnic and sectarian violence——especially ethnic conflict between Arab, Kurd, and other minorities in the North. Create effective Iraqi security forces that can fully replace U.S. forces, defeat or reduce the various insurgent and terrorist groups to acceptable levels of activity, enforce the rule of law, and grow strong enough to ensure Iraq's security from threats or pressure from neighboring states. Restructure the Iraqi government to both reflect the results of the 2010 Parliamentary elections and create a level of effective governance that can bring together all of the nation's major factions. Accelerate the slow pace of political accommodation and meet the need for stable political compromises between each major faction so as to rebuild full national unity over time. Find a new balance between central, provincial, and local governance that effectively serves the needs of the Iraqi people, aids political accommodation, builds capacity, reduces corruption, and shifts the climate from one dominated by counterinsurgency to one focused on the rule of law. Cope with the challenges of poverty, unemployment, and underemployment; poor distribution of income; and key problems in the agricultural, industrial, and service sectors than affect large portions of the population. Move Iraq toward economic development in ways that deal with the complex heritage of nearly 30 years of war and internal conflict; massive population growth; and the need to create a competitive economy. Put Iraq's budget on a stable path toward developing effective Iraqi security forces and government services; helping fund economic reconstruction and development; dealing with the near phaseout of international aid and continuing foreign debt and reparations issues; and reducing the dependence of the government on uncertain levels of oil export earnings for the majority of its revenues.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Arabia, and Kurdistan

934. A Regional Power Promoting Democracy? India's Involvement in Nepal (2005-2008)

Author:
Sandra Destradi
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
According to the theory of “democratic peace,” India, as the largest democracy in the world and as South Asia's predominant regional power, should be expected to promote democracy in neighboring countries. However, New Delhi lacks any official democracy‐ promotion policy, and its past record on democracy in the region is mixed at best. Against this background, the paper analyzes the substantial role India came to play in the peace and democratization process in Nepal in the years 2005–2008, asking whether this constitutes a departure from New Delhi's traditional policy of noninterference in its neighbors' internal affairs and a move towards a more assertive approach to democracy promotion. The analysis shows that India's involvement in Nepal was the product of short‐term stability concerns rather than being an indicator of a long‐term change in strategy with the intention of becoming an active player in international democracy promotion.
Topic:
Democratization and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, New Delhi, and Nepal

935. Measuring and Comparing Party Ideology in Nonindustrialized Societies: Taking Party Manifesto Research to Africa

Author:
Sebastian Elischer
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Despite a growing interest in African political parties, no comparative analyses of political ideology in Africa have been undertaken to date. This study addresses this shortcoming by applying the Manifesto Research Group's (MRG) coding scheme to a complete set of African party manifestos in three African countries. The study's main aim is to determine whether a research tool that has been seminal in the study of Western politics can be used to study political parties in nonindustrialized societies. In a first step the study examines the extent to which African manifestos advance programmatic ideas. Although most parties fail to do so, results indicate drastic differences between parties. The study subsequently investigates how African parties position themselves on a right–left spectrum. Most parties show a bias towards the political Left. Finally, the study examines the stance of individual parties on specific policy issues such as democracy and human rights, education, corruption, youth and women, and intercommunal relations. The study argues that although the MRG scheme has been designed against the historical background of European politics, it can be applied to advance the study of African parties.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

936. Elections in Afghanistan

Author:
Yalım Eralp
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
Elections are being held in Afghanistan. The result will not change Afghan political landscape. As Obama said, the war was not one of choice but of necessity. Yet the Western project of building a unified Afghan nation and creating a modern state was a matter of choice. It has a very slim chance of succeeding. Today, it is better understood.
Topic:
Politics and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Taliban

937. Towards a Better Life: How to Improve the State of Democracy in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Abdallah Shalaby, Salah al-Din al-Jurshi, Mostafa El-Nabaraway, Moheb Zaki, Qays Jawad Azzawi, and Antoine Nasri Messarra
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
The situation in the Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries concerning the state of the democracy has been on top of the agendas of not only political entities, but also civil society organizations, academia and the international media, with an intensifying frequency for the past decade. While the citizens of respective MENA countries deserve and demand better political, social, and economic conditions, the current state of affairs in many MENA countries is unfortunately far from ideal in terms of civic rights, freedoms, and other socio-political conditions.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Middle East

938. Improving Natural Resource Management in Sudan: A Strategy for Effective State Building and Conflict Resolution

Author:
Paul J. Sullivan and Natalie Nasrallah
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Most experts view secession as the most likely outcome of the 2011 referendum on southern Sudan's potential secession. While this scenario may lead to some stability in the long run, effective secession immediately after the referendum may prove difficult. There is significant concern about preparedness for the referendum at the national, regional, and community levels. While postponing the vote may provide some breathing room, it heightens the risk of uncertainty and instability. Each plausible scenario—unity, secession, or a delay to the referendum—holds great uncertainty and risk regarding the potential impacts on oil, land, and water. The effects of each scenario could drastically change if the political and economic situations on the ground become more fragile. Management of petroleum resources is one of the most serious challenges facing Sudan's leaders. Petroleum is the largest foreign exchange earner and the biggest contributor to fiscal revenues for both north and south. Potential flash points include revenue transparency and equitable sharing formulas, as well as financing for exploration, production, new infrastructure development, and maintenance of existing infrastructure. There are insufficient data on, and attention to, use and potential of land and water. The management of both resources poses serious challenges that could derail statehood and precipitate violence. If oil, water, and land are not managed and developed properly and sustainably, both north and south Sudan could be facing a much more uncertain and violent future.
Topic:
Economics and Politics
Political Geography:
Sudan

939. Iran's Youth: The Protests Are Not Over

Author:
Tara Nesvaderani
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Iran has the most politically active youth among the 57 nations of the Islamic world. As the most restive segment of their society, Iranian youth also represent one of the greatest longterm threats to the current form of theocratic rule. Young activists have heavily influenced the Islamic Republic's political agenda over the past 13 years. After the 2009 presidential election, youth and women were the two biggest blocs behind the region's first sustained “people power” movement for democratic change, creating a new political model in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic has forcibly regained control over the most rebellious sector of society through mass detentions of young activists, expulsions from universities and widening the powers of its own young paramilitary forces. Nevertheless, the demands from young people have not changed over the past year, and their anger is boiling just beneath the surface. The regime also remains vulnerable because it has failed to address basic socioeconomic problems among youth. The impact of Iran's youth on the political, economic and social agenda of the country over the next 25 years is important for U.S. policymakers to consider when facing complex decisions in balancing Iran's nuclear program and its internal political turmoil.
Topic:
Economics and Politics
Political Geography:
Iran

940. Mediating Peace with Proscribed Armed Groups

Author:
Veronique Dudouet
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Reforms to antiterrorism legislation are required to improve its effectiveness and fairness and make it possible to engage diplomatically with proscribed armed groups. The legal bases for proscription should be clarified and the criteria for delisting published. Listing and delisting instruments should be more nuanced and flexible. In addition, a separate legal and political component should facilitate engagement with proscribed groups in peace processes and humanitarian work. Political engagement with proscribed armed groups is possible and desirable when, first, the conflict parties (state and non state alike) are interested in exploring political solutions to a conflict; second, the parties are seen as legitimate representatives of social, political, or cultural interests by their community; third, parties have the capacity to deliver a ceasefire or peace agreement; fourth, engagement could generate significant behavioral change on the part of the actors involved; and fifth, strategic national interests favor engagement, or there is a strong demand by allies or the conflict victims to engage politically. Potential mediators working with proscribed groups should be aware of the risks of conferring legitimacy to a violent group, undermining moderates, and possibly extending the conflict if parties use negotiations to buy time or strengthen themselves militarily. Engagement also is not recommended when the position and demands of an armed group are so radical and outrageous that there is no possibility of finding an acceptable common ground. To enhance the chances of effective negotiations, mediators should thoroughly analyze the situation, set realistic expectations, and regularly evaluate the process and outcome of engagement. Various state and non state interveners should collaborate and divide labor among themselves. All significant armed groups and unarmed stakeholders should be involved in negotiations through multiple forms and tactics of engagement, recognizing that all conflict parties are entitled to continue pursuing their goals through nonviolent political means.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Politics, and Peacekeeping