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871. Azerbaijan: Vulnerable Stability

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Ilham Aliyev's presidency has been marked by stabilisation of the political life of the country and economic growth driven by oil exports. This stability, however, has come with the consolidation of authoritarian rule, greater suppression of freedoms and an increased reliance by elites on corruption and patronage networks to dominate virtually all aspects of public life. With a marginalised and demoralised opposition, little independent media and rent-seeking elites who have vested interests in the preservation of his power, Ilham Aliyev has a level of control over society that his father never possessed. The international community has little leverage with which to pressure the regime, but it should do more to persuade the leadership to see that even its own self-interests lie in gradual but genuine liberalisation.
Topic:
Corruption, Government, Human Rights, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Azerbaijan

872. International Relations in Australia: Michael Lindsay, Martin Wight, and the first Department at the Australian National University

Author:
James Cotton
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
Although he was an original member from 1951 of the Department of International Relations at the Australian National University (ANU), Michael Lindsay's contribution to the discipline and to the ANU is rarely acknowledged. He is probably best known from the brief account given in the official ANU history of the second appointment to the chair. The candidate in question was Martin Wight, then reader at the London School of Economics. Having accepted the position, Wight later withdrew in controversial circumstances. In the official history it is claimed that Lindsay 'wrote to him in terms that scared him away'. In the contemporary international relations discipline, Wight, by contrast, is regarded as one of the most influential figures of his generation. For those with any awareness of this episode, Lindsay's role as, apparently, the person responsible for this path not taken is generally regarded as negative. The account offered in the official history has obscured two important points. First, setting aside issues of personality, it can be shown that Lindsay's correspondence with Wight and any differences they might have had were based upon a coherent view on Lindsay's part of the discipline and also of the work that was most appropriate to the new institution. Second, the record shows that, as he was the acting head of the Department for much of the 1950s, Lindsay played a large role in establishing its character, and was indeed immensely active, despite his junior status, in fostering interest in the discipline in the ANU and the wider community. This paper shows Lindsay to have played a strong and creative role in the discipline, one which should be more remembered and celebrated today.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, International Political Economy, Politics, and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Australia

873. The Meaning of Left-Right in Latin America: A Comparative View

Author:
Nina Wiesehomeier
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
During recent years the so-called left turn across the Latin American continent has stimulated research seeking to explain this resurgence, accompanied by a lively debate about distinct variants of the left, broadly conceived as “good” and “bad,” social democratic and populist. This paper goes beyond this simplistic distinction: It explores the substantive policy content of left and right in Latin American countries using original expert survey data of policy positions of political parties and presidents in 18 countries and furthermore compares these left-right estimates with results from elite surveys. The examples discussed underscore the need to take policy positions on particular policy dimensions into account and show that caution is recommended in the use of the general left-right axis.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Latin America

874. How Presidents Legislate: Agenda Control and Policy Success in Costa Rica

Author:
Leslie A. Schwindt-Bayer
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Presidents around the world have access to a wide range of legislative powers—veto power, decree power, and exclusive bill introduction powers, for example—that they can use to promote and defend their policy program. An important but often overlooked power is the ability to control the legislative agenda during extraordinary sessions where the president decides which bills the legislature will consider. Does agenda-control power make it easier for presidents to get their policies passed? In this paper, I examine whether the president's ability to set the legislative agenda increases the probability that his or her bills become law using the case of Costa Rica, where agenda control is one of the few legislative powers available to the president. I control for other factors that affect bill passage, including the partisan powers of the president, whether the president is a lame duck, the amount of time in the congressional session after sponsorship, the popularity of the president, and the type of bill. I examine this with data from three legislative sessions—1994–1998, 1998–2002, and 2002–2006—and find that agenda control, which increases the likelihood that they will successfully implement their policy agenda, is an important power for presidents.
Topic:
Politics and Governance
Political Geography:
Latin America and Costa Rica

875. The Vote Share of New and Young Parties

Author:
Carlos Gervasoni, Scott Mainwaring, and Annabella España-Nájera
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
In this paper, we analyze the remarkable differences in the electoral success of new and young parties in fifty-eight countries in the Post World War II period. We hope to make three contributions. First, we present and test a new theoretical argument about the electoral success of new parties, or conversely about the “frozenness” of party systems, in competitive political regimes. In the short to medium term, poor performance by governing parties facilitates the electoral success of new contenders. In the long term, new parties have more opportunities for garnering votes in post-1978 democracies because of the sequencing of party building and opportunities created by modern mass media, especially television. Second, we introduce the concepts of extra-system volatility (or the vote share of new parties) and the vote share of young parties. These concepts are useful complements to the established focus on total electoral volatility. Two countries with similar levels of total volatility can have very different levels of extra-system volatility, signaling divergences in voters' willingness to flee from existing parties and different levels of dissatisfaction with the existing parties. Third, we present information on volatility, extra-system volatility, the vote share of young parties, and within-system volatility in 58 countries for an extended period of time. The historic and geographic scope of the dataset is useful for an empirical mapping and for testing our theoretical arguments about the variance in the “frozenness” of party systems or, conversely, about the electoral success of new and young parties.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, and Governance

876. Federation of Bosnia And Herzegovina – A Parallel Crisis

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), the larger of Bosnia and Herzegovina's two entities, is in crisis. Disputes among and between Bosniak and Croat leaders and a dysfunctional administrative system have paralysed decision-making, put the entity on the verge of bankruptcy and triggered social unrest. Much focus has been on the conflict that pits the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska (RS) against the Federation, but the parallel crisis within the Federation also deserves attention. The need for overhaul of the FBiH has been ignored because of belief that state-wide constitutional reform would solve most of its problems, but any state-level reform seems far off. Bosnia's challenges all have echoes at Federation level, though in simpler form. Reform in the Federation, starting with establishment of a parliamentary commission, is achievable and could give impetus to state-level reform, while improving the livelihoods of the people in Bosnia's larger entity. If it does not happen, Bosnia, which was wracked by three and a half years of war in the 1990s, may well slide toward new political and economic ungovernability.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Balkans

877. Cautious Optimism for Peace in Colombia

Author:
Virginia M. Bouvier
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The new Colombian administration that took office in early August faces a unique set of peacemaking challenges and opportunities related to the country's internal armed conflict. Following a spate of tensions with neighboring countries regarding the presence of illegal armed groups along Colombia's border areas, newly-inaugurated President Juan Manuel Santos moved quickly to create new mechanisms with his neighbors to ensure that contentious regional issues are addressed before they reach the boiling point. In a surprising video released just before the president-elect was inaugurated, the top leader of the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces-People's Army (FARC-EP), called on Santos to enter a dialogue without preconditions, thereby opening a new window of opportunities to pursue peace. President Santos responded that “the door to dialogue is not locked,” insisting however that the guerrillas must lay down their weapons and meet a series of other pre-conditions before talks could occur. Former mediators differ over whether such preconditions will pose an obstacle to talks. In the final days of August, Brazil and Ecuador rejected a FARC-EP request for meeting with the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) to discuss a political solution to Colombia's conflict. UNASUR leaders said they would not engage in mediating the conflict in the absence of an express invitation from the Colombian government. The Colombian government has rejected UNASUR mediation and underscored its preference to negotiate directly with the FARC-EP once the latter meets the government's preconditions. Concrete good faith efforts—both public and private—will be required from the government and the guerrillas to build confidence, address the legacy of distrust created by decades of violence and set the stage for future talks.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
Brazil, Colombia, and Latin America

878. Iran's Youth: Agents of Change

Author:
Tara Nesvaderani
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Iran has the most politically active youth among the 57 nations of the Islamic world. As the most restive segment of their society, Iranian youth also represent one of the greatest longterm threats to the current form of theocratic rule. Young activists have heavily influenced the Islamic Republic's political agenda over the past 13 years. After the 2009 presidential election, youth and women were the two biggest blocs behind the region's first sustained “people power” movement for democratic change, creating a new political model in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic has forcibly regained control over the most rebellious sector of society through mass detentions of young activists, expulsions from universities and widening the powers of its own young paramilitary forces. Nevertheless, the demands from young people have not changed over the past year, and their anger is boiling just beneath the surface. The regime also remains vulnerable because it has failed to address basic socioeconomic problems among youth. The impact of Iran's youth on the political, economic and social agenda of the country over the next 25 years is important for U.S. policymakers to consider when facing complex decisions in balancing Iran's nuclear program and its internal political turmoil.
Topic:
Islam, Politics, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

879. Power and the Past: Collective Memory and International Relations

Author:
Eric Langenbacher (ed) and Yossi Shain (ed)
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Georgetown University Press
Abstract:
Collective memories have long influenced domestic politics and especially international affairs—a fact most recently exemplified by the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001. The events and the memories resulting from them became powerful motivating forces for Americans almost overnight. At home, an infrastructure of commemoration quickly arose—in films like United 93 ( 2006 ); memorials including one unveiled at the Pentagon in September 2008 and the Tribute World Trade Center Visitor Center opened in 2006; and even in political campaign discourse, as at the 2008 Republican National Convention. 1 Yet, as with other collective memories worldwide, there is no consensus as to the overall meaning and lessons of September 11 over time. Instead, the continued vehemence of discussions about 9 / 11 reveals still-unresolved struggles over the construction, content, and power of the memory. What degree of prominence should this memory have in American political culture? What historical narratives are offered as explanations? Most importantly, what values and policy implications—both domestically and abroad—ought to follow?
Topic:
International Relations, Human Rights, Politics, Political Theory, and History
Political Geography:
Europe

880. Lundquist: The Temple of Jerusalem: Past, Present, and Future

Author:
Mick Dumper
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Palestine Studies
Institution:
Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:
The Temple of Jerusalem: Past, Present, and Future, by John M. Lundquist. London and Westport, CT: Praeger, 2008. xviii + 231 pages. Notes to p. 264. Bibliography to p. 286. Index to p. 298. $49.95 cloth. Mick Dumper is professor of Middle East politics at Exeter University. He is the author of The Future of the Palestinian Refugees: Towards Equity and Peace (Lynne Rienner, 2007) and The Politics of Sacred Space: The Old City of Jerusalem and the Middle East Conflict (Lynne Rienner, 2001).
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, London, Palestine, and Jerusalem