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852. Setback for Iran's Opposition: Khamenei's Hardline Reinforced
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A few hours after the official demonstration marking the February 11 anniversary of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stated, "Was the presence of tens of millions of motivated and aware people in the festival of the thirty-first anniversary of revolution enough to awaken [to their mistakes] the internal enemies and deceived individuals who sometimes hypocritically speak of 'the people'?" Khamenei had spent months worrying that the opposition Green Movement would hijack the anniversary. Yesterday, he seemed to regain his self-confidence by proving that he could manage Tehran's streets. In light of this development, how will the Supreme Leader deal with both Iran's political crisis and the nuclear dossier?
- Topic:
- Democratization, Islam, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
853. How to Assess Political Fissures in Iran
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji, David Cvach, and Ali Alfoneh
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The means for assessing political fissures in Iran are by nature very limited and have become even more so since the June 12, 2009, election. Independent studies and data on the Iranian public, such as opinion polling, are sparse and not useful, and the Iranian press follows very strict red lines in discussing politics. Western diplomats in Iran are also restrained from understanding the political environment due to the oppressively formal nature of relations with Iranian officials, who rarely discuss sensitive issues with their Western counterparts. The latter are thus forced to gather information anecdotally, in private meetings with business leaders, cultural elites, and journalists -- hardly a sufficient sample of Iranian society.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Washington, and Middle East
854. The morning after: Where is Ukraine headed under president Yanukovich?
- Author:
- Igor Torbakov
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The past five tumultuous years of the Viktor Yushchenko presidency laid bare Ukraine's gravest problem—its seeming inability to govern itself properly. Following the victory at the polls, the new Ukrainian leadership will inevitably be seeking to consolidate power, correct the country's flawed constitutional design and establish a strong government. This is a tall order indeed, given the anarchic state of Ukraine's political system and the weakness of most of its public institutions. Ukraine's dismal economic situation and the limited set of international options will severely constrain the president-elect in pursuing domestic and foreign policies. For the new leader, the job ahead will be a balancing act, at home and abroad. To see Kiev succeed in its attempts at stabilization and reform, the European Union needs to re-engage Ukraine. Disillusionment and frustration should give way to patience and perseverance. Focusing on step-by-step integration will be a good way to revitalize the troubled relationship.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
855. Medvedev's take on the power vertical: Are the rules of the game changing in Russia?
- Author:
- Katri Pynnöniemi and Sinikukka Saari
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The political system that Vladimir Putin established during the first decade of the 2000s is often referred to as 'the power vertical'. The term suggests a stable, streamlined and effective centre-led system. Yet, this image does not quite correspond with Russian reality. The system creates inefficiency, encourages corruption and is hostile towards bottom-up political initiative. The current leadership acknowledges that Russian stability is on shaky ground and therefore the system is in need of modernization. The economy is clearly a priority for the leadership: it believes that the political system's modernization should emerge gradually and in a highly controlled fashion from economic achievements. The current system in Russia is hostile to innovation and prone to corruption and therefore Medvedev's modernization plan is unlikely to succeed unless transparency and open competition within the system are considerably enhanced. This will be difficult to achieve because the elite benefits from the current corrupt and non-transparent system where the lines of responsibility are unclear. The West should not expect dramatic changes and radical liberal reforms in Russia. Western actors should, nevertheless, actively support and encourage economic and political reforms in the country and engage with it through international cooperation on specific issues such as anti-corruption policy. By stepping up its engagement with Russia, the West can demonstrate that a prosperous, competitive and modern Russia is also in the interests of the West.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Politics, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
856. Scientific Misconduct: The Manipulation of Evidence for Political Advocacy in Health Care and Climate Policy
- Author:
- George Avery
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Science is increasingly being manipulated by those who try to use it to justify political choices based on their ethical preferences and who are willing to suppress evidence of conflict between those preferences and the underlying reality. This problem is clearly seen in two policy domains, health care and climate policy.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Health, Politics, and Science and Technology
857. Where was united Africa in the climate change negotiations?
- Author:
- Jean-Christophe Hoste
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- A political commitment was reached in Copenhagen between five countries: US, China, India Brazil and South Africa. The rest of the conference simply “took note of it”, most with resignation, many with anger. This policy brief will have a closer look at the climate change negotiations from an African perspective. It will try to answer three questions to see whether the outcome of the negotiations was as unacceptable as South Africa said it was. First, what was the African Common Position and what were some of their demands? Second, how did the negotiating strategy to defend the African Common Position on climate change evolve? Third, why did South Africa call the agreement it negotiated with the US, China and India unacceptable but did it not decline to be part of that deal?
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Globalization, International Cooperation, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil
858. ¿Es el crecimiento económico suficiente para apoyar la democracia? Lecciones del caso chileno
- Author:
- Pedro Aravena Lavin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- This article analyzes the support for democracy in Chile from an economic, institutional and political perspective. It uses data from Latinobarómetro for the period 1996–2007 and a statistical method of estimation, “ordered logit,” in order to answer the question of why support for Chilean democracy is not connected with economic growth. The analysis generates three key results of interest. First, regardless of the fact that GDP per capita does not have any effect on the level of support for democracy, it does affect individuals' perceptions of economic performance, since the variable “economic situation” is one of the most explanatory variable of the model. Second, the analysis demonstrates the importance of the degree of confidence in the Congress at the moment that perceptions of democracy are evaluated. Third, “political ideology” is the most useful variable in explaining support for democracy, a fact which suggests that the adherents of the right wing do not support the democratic system. This is the most reliable reason for the moderate level of support for democracy in Chile.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Chile
859. Arming Hizballah? U.S. Military Assistance to Lebanon
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The August 3 fatal shooting of an Israel Defense Forces officer by a Lebanese Armed Forces soldier has sparked debate regarding the utility and wisdom of the U.S. military assistance program to Lebanon. Although such assistance is not new, the program's scope dramatically increased after the 2005 Cedar Revolution ended Syria's thirty-year occupation and swept the Arab world's only pro-Western, democratically elected government to power. In recent months, however, Syrian influence has returned, while Hizballah has secured enough political power to effectively reverse many of the revolution's gains. Even before the August 3 incident, these changes on the ground prompted Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA), chair of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, to place a hold on the 2011 assistance package.
- Topic:
- Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Lebanon, and Syria
860. Ahmadinezhad's Bomb Rhetoric: Opportunities for U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On July 31, according to Iran's semiofficial Mehr News Agency, presidential chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim Mashai claimed that the West had raised no objections to President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad's open proclamation that the Islamic Republic could build a nuclear bomb. How should this surprising claim be interpreted? And what implications might it hold for Iran's domestic politics, especially when viewed alongside Ahmadinezhad's history of confrontational rhetoric?
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Politics, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iran