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132. Russia’s Rising Influence in Africa
- Author:
- Agnieszka Legucka and Jędrzej Czerep
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Russia’s increasing presence in Africa is motivated by global political ambitions and economic goals. To expand its influence, Russia is involved in local conflicts and fuels anti-Western sentiment. Competing with EU and U.S. countries, it is simultaneously becoming an important security partner for many African governments. An obstacle to Russia further increasing its presence in Africa is its weak economic condition, which not only limits the possibility of economic expansion on the continent but also its interference in internal political processes in African countries.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Soft Power
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, and African Union
133. The Political Situation in Iraq in Light of Mass Protests
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In October, mass protests over poor living conditions and Iran’s influence on the country’s internal policy erupted in Iraq. Brutal attempts to quell the demonstrations led to the escalation of violence. On 30 November, Prime Minister Adil Abd al-Mahdi resigned, which was one of the demands of the demonstrators supported by the prominent Shiite spiritual leader in Iraq Ali al-Sistani. The PM’s resignation, the proposal of reforms put forward by the president of Iraq, and the UN plan to stabilise the country backed by Sistani indicate the possibility of abolishing the model of consensual democracy prevailing in Iraq.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Politics, Elections, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
134. The Paths of Political Change in Argentina
- Author:
- Bartlomiej Znojek
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 10 December, Alberto Fernández from the centre-left Everyone’s Front took over as the president of Argentina. His main challenge will be to end the economic crisis. His government will give up on the pro-market policies of its predecessors and try to renegotiate the foreign debt terms and attract investors. Argentina’s position on regional cooperation may lead to tension, in particular, within Mercosur. While the new government will seek stronger cooperation with the EU, its scepticism of the EU-Mercosur agreement may complicate the document’s ratification in Argentina.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and South America
135. What Drives Religious Politicking?
- Author:
- Amy Erica Smith and Emma Rosenberg
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- In the last decade, scholars have begun to elaborate the diverse ways religion manifests in democracies. We draw on theories related to modernization, secularism, and religious competition, as well as survey data from the Comparative National Elections Project, to explain individual-level and country-level variation in religious politicking—religious leaders’ and organizations’ engagement in electoral campaigns. At the country level, though human development depresses the rate at which citizens receive political messages from religious organizations and clergy, both secularism and religious pluralism boost it. At the individual level, “civilizational” differences across religious groups are muted and inconsistent. However, across the globe, citizens with higher levels of education are consistently more likely to receive political messages—an effect that is stronger where religious politicking is more common. A case study of Mozambique further confirms the insights obtained when we unpack modernization and secularization theories.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, Politics, Religion, Developing World, Democracy, Citizenship, and Human Development
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mozambique, Global Focus, and Global South
136. Dictators and Leadership: Lessons from Stalin and Mao
- Author:
- Graeme Gill
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The accepted wisdom about dictators is that they rule their political systems in an essentially arbitrary and willful manner. Their leadership colleagues are said to live in constant fear of the dictator, always vulnerable to his will and always looking to defend themselves against him. The leadership is shown as a Hobbesian “war of all against all” as the leader rules with no real restraint. This paper challenges that view. It will explain why such a view of leadership politics in authoritarian systems is inadequate, and will illustrate this by looking at two of the most egregious dictators of the twentieth century, Joseph Stalin and Mao Zedong.
- Topic:
- Communism, Democratization, Politics, Governance, Institutions, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia
137. Shared Class as an Electoral Heuristic in Brazil’s Local Elections
- Author:
- Peter G. Johannessen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Do voters use a candidate’s class as an electoral heuristic? And if so, how? Drawing on observational and experimental evidence from Brazil’s local elections (2004–2016), I provide evidence that voters use shared class to draw inferences about a candidate’s type: candidates from different classes receive similar overall levels of support, but receive disproportionate support from voters who share their class. The mechanisms driving this finding vary by a voter’s relative class position: upper-class voters use shared class to draw inferences about a candidate’s quality, trustworthiness, and distributive commitments, but lower-class voters only use shared class to draw inferences about a candidate’s trustworthiness and distributive commitments.
- Topic:
- Politics, Poverty, Democracy, Inequality, Citizenship, and Identities
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, and Latin America
138. Protectionism under Trump: The China Shock, Intolerance, and the "First White President"
- Author:
- Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In 2016, the United States elected an avowedly protectionist president. This paper uses US county-level electoral data to examine this outcome. The hypothesis that support for protectionism was purely a response to globalization is rejected. Exposure to trade competition encouraged a shift to the Republican candidate, but this effect is mediated by race, diversity, education, and age. If the turn toward protectionism is due to economic dislocation, then public policy interventions could mitigate the impact and support the reestablishment of a political consensus for open trade. If, however, the drivers are identity or cultural values, then the scope for constructive policy intervention is unclear.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, Donald Trump, and Protectionism
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
139. Who are the Candidates in Tunisia’s 2019 Presidential Elections?
- Author:
- Souha Drissi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- With the death of President Beji Caid Essebsi on 25 July, Tunisia’s presidential elections were moved up and will be held on 15 September 2019. By the end of the eight-day process of accepting nominations – from 2 to 9 August – the Independent High Authority for Elections (IHAE) had received 971 requests for nomination which include 75 independents and 11 female candidates. On 31 August, the IHAE released the final list of candidates for the presidential race, accepting 26 nominees, including two women, and rejecting 71 applications for failing to meet candidacy requirements. The IHAE is considered one of the achievements of the 2011 Revolution. It is a nine-member permanent body based in Tunis which enjoys administrative and financial independence. Its mission is to “ensure democratic, pluralistic, fair and transparent elections and referendums”2 and supervise and oversee all related processes. The election campaigns started on 2 September and will continue until 13 September, with 17 September as the deadline for the announcement of the preliminary election results and 21 October for the announcement of the final results. In case of no absolute majority vote, a second round will be held after two weeks.3
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Democracy, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Africa, Tunisia, and Tunis
140. Who are the Candidates in Tunisia’s 2019 Presidential Elections?
- Author:
- Souha Drissi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- With the death of President Beji Caid Essebsi on 25 July, Tunisia’s presidential elections were moved up and will be held on 15 September 2019. By the end of the eight-day process of accepting nominations – from 2 to 9 August – the Independent High Authority for Elections (IHAE) had received 971 requests for nomination which include 75 independents and 11 female candidates. On 31 August, the IHAE released the final list of candidates for the presidential race, accepting 26 nominees, including two women, and rejecting 71 applications for failing to meet candidacy requirements. The IHAE is considered one of the achievements of the 2011 Revolution. It is a nine-member permanent body based in Tunis which enjoys administrative and financial independence. Its mission is to “ensure democratic, pluralistic, fair and transparent elections and referendums”2 and supervise and oversee all related processes. The election campaigns started on 2 September and will continue until 13 September, with 17 September as the deadline for the announcement of the preliminary election results and 21 October for the announcement of the final results. In case of no absolute majority vote, a second round will be held after two weeks.3
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Democracy, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Africa, Tunisia, and Tunis