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1202. PolicyWatch #1266: Jordanian Islamists and Municipal Elections: Confirmation of a Problematic Trend?
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 07-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Jordanians go to the polls tomorrow to elect nearly 1,000 local representatives and 92 mayors. On their own, these elections are of minimal interest to Washington: municipalities have small budgets, limited responsibilities, and scant independence from the central government. But the voting comes just a month after the Hamas takeover of Gaza, during a spike in the violence in Iraq, and a week after a landslide victory for the Islamist-leaning Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the Turkish national elections. Adding to the significance of the Jordanian ballot is the fact that, after boycotting the 2003 contest, the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood's political party, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), will participate in this year's elections. A potential IAF victory highlights growing concern that Islamists are on a political roll throughout the Middle East, and that Jordan may be vulnerable.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, Islam, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Gaza, and Jordan
1203. PolicyWatch #1262: How Supreme Is Iran's Supreme Leader?
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson and Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 07-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Reports that Ayatollah Ali Meshkini has either died or is on the brink of death shed light on the nature of power in Iran. Meshkini is speaker of the Assembly of Experts -- a body that, despite its traditionally minor role in Iranian politics, is constitutionally empowered to not only elect a new Supreme Leader if the post becomes vacant, but also to dismiss a sitting leader. Current Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei cannot be pleased that this body may now be headed by deputy speaker Ali Akbar Rafsanjani, a former president known to be a wily comeback artist. Although Khamenei has taken full advantage of the constitution to make the Supreme Leader the ultimate arbiter of Iranian politics, that could change depending on his health and Rafsanjani's scheming.
- Topic:
- Government, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
1204. PolicyWatch #1257: Upcoming Turkish Elections: Issues and Winners
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 07-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On June 19, the Turkish Supreme Elections Board, an independent body that monitors the elections process, finalized the candidate lists for the July 22 early parliamentary polls. The outcome at the polls should be easier to estimate now that the electorate can judge the parties as well as their candidates. Will the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) win? How will the other major parties fare? And what issues will dominate, among them the Constitutional Court's decision yesterday to overturn President Ahmet Sezer's veto of the AKP's proposal for direct presidential elections?
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, Islam, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
1205. From Patronage to Program: The Emergence of Party-Oriented Legislators in Brazil
- Author:
- Frances Hagopian, Carlos Gervasoni, and Juan Andres Moraes
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper explains the unanticipated emergence of party - oriented legislators and rising party discipline in Brazil since the early 1990s. We contend that deputies in Brazil have become increasingly party - oriented because the utilities of party - programmatic and patronage - based electoral strategies shifted with market reforms, which created a programmatic cleavage in Brazilian politics and diminished the resource base for state patronage. Based on an original survey of the Brazilian Congress, we introduce new measures of partisan campaigns, party polarization, and the values legislators attach to party program and voter loyalty. Regression analysis confirms that deputies who believe voters value party program run partisan, programmatic campaigns, and those in polarized parties and those who believe voters are loyal to the party are willing to delegate authority to party leaders and do not switch parties. Party polarization and the proximity of deputies' policy preferences to their party's mean explain discipline on 236 roll - call votes in the 51st legislature (1999 – 2001).
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
1206. Creating Competition: Patronage Politics and the PRI's Demise
- Author:
- Kenneth F. Greene
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Why do dominant parties persist in power for decades and under what conditions do challengers expand enough to beat them at the polls, thus transforming these systems into fully competitive democracies with turnover? Unlike in one - party regimes, the world's sixteen dominant party systems feature meaningful electoral competition; however, dominant parties have persisted despite enough social cleavages, permissive electoral institutions, negative retrospective evaluations of the incumbent's performance, and sufficient ideological space for challengers to occupy. I craft a resource theory of single - dominance that focuses on the incumbent's ability to divert public resources for partisan use. Using formal theory, I show how asymmetric resources and costs of participation force challengers to form as non - centrist and under - competitive parties. Only when these asymmetries decline do opposition parties expand. I test the theory's predictions using survey data of party elites in Mexico. I also extend the argument to Malaysia and Italy using aggregate data.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Malaysia, Asia, Italy, and Mexico
1207. Prestando acuerdo: El Senado frente a los nombramientos del Poder Judicial en la Argentina democrá¡tica (1983-2006)
- Author:
- Mariana Llanos and Constanza Figueroa Schibber
- Publication Date:
- 07-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Este trabajo intenta evaluar en que medida el Senado argentino cumplio su papel consti-tucional de contralor del Poder Ejecutivo en torno a los nombramientos del poder judicial entre 1983 y 2007, como tambien los factores que afectaron el cumplimiento de este rol. Para ello, se analiza el tramite parlamentario de los pliegos girados por el Ejecutivo para el nombramiento de todos los jueces federales, los pertenecientes a la llamada "Justicia Na-cional" de la Capital Federal y los miembros del Ministerio Publico. A partir de los mis-mos se concluye que los poderes del Senado dependen de varios factores, a saber, los re-cursos institucionales de los presidentes al interior de esta camara (medidos no solo a par¬tir de las mayorias legislativas sino tambien de su poder en la Comision de Acuerdos), la categoria del cargo a ser ocupado (si se trata de miembros de la Corte Suprema o de otros tribunales), las ambiciones presidenciales en otras areas de politica (como la reeleccion al cargo) y las reglas que regulan la selection y confirmation de candidatos (como el secreto o la publicidad del tramite legislativo).
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and South America
1208. Bernard Schwartz Fellow Sadanand Dhume on Political Islam and Indonesia
- Author:
- Nermeen Shaikh
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- Sadanand Dhume, a Bernard Schwartz Fellow at Asia Society, is a journalist and writer with a long-standing interest in Asia. He has recently completed a book on the rise of radical Islam in Indonesia. As a former Indonesia correspondent of the Far Eastern Economic Review and The Asian Wall Street Journal in Jakarta, Sadanand covered Indonesia's economic, political, security and social scene. Before that he was the New Delhi bureau chief of FEER.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Asia, New Delhi, and Southeast Asia
1209. AsiaSource Interview with Zahid Hussain
- Author:
- Nermeen Shaikh
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- Zahid Hussain is the Pakistan correspondent for the Times of London, the Wall Street Journal, and Newsweek. He is also the political correspondent for the Karachi-based monthly Newsline. According to Ahmed Rashid, one of the foremost experts on Afghanistan and author of several books on the region, Zahid Hussain's new book, Frontline Pakistan: The Struggle with Militant Islam "is the first serious exposure of the rise and continuation of Islamic extremism in Pakistan. Zahid Hussain shows the links between the major jihadi groups of Pakistan, Al Qaeda, and the ISI with a degree of detail not seen in any Western writing on the subject."
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and London
1210. Exclusive AsiaSource Interview with Ambassador Javad Zarif, Iranian Permanent Representative to the UN
- Author:
- Nermeen Shaikh
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- Ambassador Javad Zarif presented his credentials as the Permanent Representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran on 5 August 2002 to the Secretary-General of the United Nations. Dr. Zarif is a career diplomat and has served in different senior positions in the Iranian Foreign Ministry and at various international organizations. His responsibility from 1992 until his appointment as Permanent Represetative was Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East