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1081. Analyzing Iran's Domestic Political Landscape

Author:
Kelly Campbell
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The results of Iran's March 14, 2008 parliamentary elections-a 70 percent victory for conservatives within Iran-came as little surprise. The ruling elite disqualified approximately 1,700 reformist candidates before the elections, minimizing the risk of a conservative defeat. However, the results revealed a growing divide between conservatives allied with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and a "third way" movement led by pragmatic conservatives who, though loyal to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei, are critical of Ahmadinejad's economic policies and confrontational rhetoric with the West. The surprising electoral success of these pragmatic conservatives may pose a significant challenge to Ahmadinejad in Iran's 2009 presidential elections.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

1082. Opposition Alliances and Democratization in Egypt

Author:
Hesham Sallam
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
What is the future of democracy in Egypt? What are the prospects for cooperation between the country's Islamist and non-Islamist political opposition groups? How can such cooperation be strengthened? These questions were at the forefront of discussions at the Second Annual Wasat Generation Dialogue, held in Cairo Egypt May 27-29, 2008 and hosted by USIP, the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, and Georgetown University's Center for Democracy and Civil Society. An outgrowth of USIP's Arab Political Oppositions Project (APOP), this not-for-attribution dialogue brought together a select group of Egyptian political leaders, American academics and U.S. democracy-promoters. The conference provided a unique venue to explore the prospects for enhancing political cooperation across the ideological/religious divide in the Egyptian political arena. It also highlighted the potential to build bridges of cooperation among a new generation of political activists.
Topic:
Government, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:
Egypt

1083. Revisiting the Self: Researching Minorities in Turkey

Author:
Kerem Karaosmanoğlu
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Minorities have always been the subject of academic, journalistic and popular research in Turkey. The general trend of most of these analyses is to conceive of minorities as part of a wider international political structure, be it the international system, imperialism or an anti-national conspiracy against ethnic Turks. Within such pictures, a member of a minority group can hardly be recognized as an individual self with a sense of subjectivity. Thus, what is missing in most minority research in Turkey is an analysis of the self. This article argues that cultural studies can provide resources and inspiration for a new research paradigm for the study of minorities in Turkey through its use of qualitative anthropological methods such as participant observation, in-depth interviews and focus groups. Only then can the minority self have a chance to say something of his/her own, breaking the shield of silence and the stigma of conspiracy discourse.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey

1084. Democracy, Parties and Political Finance in Latin America

Author:
Eduardo Posada-Carbó
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper tries to link the topic of political finance to the wider question of democracy and political parties in Latin America. By doing so, it aims at providing a conceptual framework within which the subject of political finance could acquire some centrality, hitherto missing in both the academic literature and current debates. The first section examines the extent to which, in spite of renewed democratic developments in Latin America during the last two decades, dominant views of democracy in the region continue to neglect and even undermine the significance of political parties and elections in the workings of democracy. This is followed by a discussion of how prevalent concepts of democracy can impinge on the course of political reform. Admittedly any attempt at establishing such a link is fraught with difficulties, and I only venture a few suggestions by looking at the debate among opinion makers and legislators regarding the prospects for political reform in a single country: Colombia. In the last section, I discuss how public funding—a trend visible in most Latin American countries, apparently adopted to fight corruption and to guarantee equality—may be affecting political parties and party systems in the region. A central, underlying assumption of this paper is that ideas are paramount in shaping the course of policy making, thus conditioning any process of political reform.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America

1085. Political Catholicism in Revolutionary Mexico, 1900–1926

Author:
Robert Curley
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper argues that the Mexican revolution played a formative role in the construction of modern Mexican Catholicism, while Catholic politics fundamentally shaped the outcome of the 1910 revolution. The argument analyzes several distinct but related moments and their constitutive movements. Catholic social and political movements sought to 1) restore religion to secular society, 2) govern, 3) protest revolutionary fiat, 4) confront anticlericalism, 5) mobilize emerging civil society in an era of mass politics through organized labor, and 6) ultimately channel this legacy of religious-based identity through defense leagues that opted for armed conflict over political negotiation. Catholic lay associations included the Guadalupan Workers, a vanguard movement of provincial intellectuals that operated between 1909 and 1914; the National Catholic Party, which competed electorally and governed in western Mexico between 1911 and 1914; sustained parish-based movements of protest, boycott, and civil disobedience in the western Mexican state of Jalisco between 1917 and 1919; a Catholic labor confederation, which organized urban and rural working people in competition with pro-government unions between 1920 and 1925; the Popular Union, a decentralized religious defense league that operated between 1924 and 1927; and the National League in Defense of Religious Liberty, which attempted to provide leadership for Catholic armed rebellion as of 1925 and beyond. The main conclusions concern the political grounding of religiosity, the weight of state-Church conflict, and the broader historical process of secularization as a main organizing concept for interpreting the Mexican revolution. In the end, I demonstrate how Catholic militants were central to the construction of a modern state in Mexico, a state that, ironically, would be defined by their exclusion as a political group.
Topic:
Civil Society, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Mexico

1086. The Durability of Constitutions in Changing Environments: Explaining Constitutional Replacements in Latin America

Author:
Gabriel L. Negretto
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Given the costs entailed in replacing a constitution, most works on political institutions assume that constitutions are a stable set of rules that become self-enforcing over time. The durability of constitutions is, however, subject to variation. I argue that this variation depends on specific institutions and on the relative stability of the political environment that the constitution is supposed to regulate. Using a duration analysis of constitutions in eighteen Latin American countries between 1946 and 2000, this paper finds that while the lifespan of constitutions is negatively affected by political and social instability, institutions that diffuse power and make possible the flexible adaptation of the constitution to changing circumstances decrease the risk of constitutional replacement. It also shows that for the Latin American region, the durability of constitutions tends to decrease rather than increase over time.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Latin America

1087. Joe Biden: A Realist Cold War Liberal

Author:
Nuh Yilmaz
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Joe Biden was selected as Barack Obama's vice presidential candidate largely because of his expertise in foreign policy. Traditionally, in U.S. politics, Dick Cheney-like strong vice presidents are exception, not the rule. It is wiser to focus on Obama's foreign policy outlook rather than Biden's, which would benefit Turkey in the long run with its realistic tendencies. Biden's voting pattern, as it is displayed in three different issues (Cyprus- Armenian Issue-Iraq) does not seem friendly to the Turkish position. However, Biden as a statesman would not create extra problems for Turkey at the expense of U.S national interests. In all of these issues, the person that should be watched carefully is Obama, not Biden. Spending more energy to analyze Obama's geopolitical priorities can benefit Turkey in the long run.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Turkey, Armenia, and Balkans

1088. Indonesia: Pre-Election Anxieties in Aceh

Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Three years after the 15 August 2005 signing of the Helsinki Memorandum of Understanding between the Indonesian government and the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM), Aceh is politically vibrant but on edge. The sources of unease are several. As preparations get underway for the April 2009 parliamentary elections with 44 parties – six local, 38 national – in contention, the military is worried about Partai Aceh, the GAM party, winning control of local legislatures and challenging Jakarta's authority. Partai Aceh is worried about overt or covert interference from Jakarta, and smaller parties are worried about intimidation by Partai Aceh. Election officials are concerned a dispute between Jakarta and Aceh over candidate requirements could delay the polls, and other struggles with the central government are brewing. Everyone is worried about the health of Governor Irwandi Yusuf, a GAM leader with unparalleled ability to manage competing demands in post-conflict Aceh, who suffered a sudden illness – officially undisclosed but widely reported as a slight stroke – in August.
Topic:
Political Violence and Politics
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia

1089. Political Economy of Government Responsiveness: Policy Choices and Rural Incorporation

Author:
Haroon Ullah
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The literature of political development has long advocated the importance of integrating the rural countryside into mainstream political institutions. This paper argues that rural incorporation is best understood within the context of pro-peasant policy innovations targeting specific constituencies in an electorate. While there are important preconditions that set the stage for rural incorporation (legitimacy of the political party, party organization), rural incorporation is fostered when credible commitments are made to voter blocs. Combining case-study analysis and formal modeling, this paper focuses on the reasons pro-peasant policies lead to rural incorporation but not necessarily regime durability. Insights derived center on the importance of credible commitments to party dynamics, the path dependence of early elections, and the decision parameters of constituencies with limited information.
Topic:
Political Economy, Politics, and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, South Asia, and Asia

1090. The Evolution of Cleavages in the Indonesian Party System

Author:
Andreas Ufen
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The basic patterns of the initial Indonesian party system have reemerged after more than four decades of authoritarianism. The cleavage model by Lipset and Rokkan is well-suited to analyzing the genesis of and the most salient features of this party system. However, in applying the approach, some adjustments have to be made. For instance, the national and industrial revolutions have to be conceived of differently. Moreover, it is useful to distinguish critical phases in the formation of parties. The four cleavages have to be reinterpreted and additional ones need to be identified. In Indonesia, economic cleavages are hardly significant in conflicts between political parties (especially the “capital” versus “labour” cleavage) or are expressed in terms of religion or allegiance to political leaders based in a specific region (“urban” versus “rural”). In addition, in comparison with 1999 and particularly with the 1950s, today's cleavages are less marked. Thus, the Lipset Rokkan model has to be combined with other approaches which underline the importance of clientelism and the dealignment of parties.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia