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11. Stormclouds and Solutions: Anticipating and Preparing for Climate Change and Security Risks in the Caribbean

Author:
Shiloh Fetzek and Oliver Leighton-Barrett
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
A region long-tested by both extreme weather events and illicit economic activity, the Caribbean has developed abundant expertise in climate science and disaster resilience. It also has many underlying governance and security challenges which may amplify each other as climate impacts intensify. In this policy brief authors Shiloh Fetzek and Lt. Commander US Navy (ret.) Oliver Leighton-Barrett identify the key regional security risks exacerbated by climate change, which include: 1. economic contraction, violence and criminal activity; 2. disaster impacts and political repercussions; 3. food and water insecurity, damage to livelihoods and social unrest; and 4. Central and South American security deterioration impacting on the Caribbean. Anticipating and addressing these challenges by integrating security cooperation and climate resilience initiatives could support existing risk management structures and advance long-term economic and socio-political stability in the Caribbean.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Economy, and Resilience
Political Geography:
South America, Central America, and Caribbean

12. Weathering the Storm: Weather Shocks and International Migrants from the Philippines

Author:
Marjorie Pajaron
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The growing literature on environmental migration presents conflicting results. While some find that natural disasters induce international migration, others discover a dampening effect. We aim to reconcile these differences by using a comprehensive list of weather shocks from the Philippines, a country prone to natural disasters and a major exporter of labor. We constructed a longitudinal provincial dataset (2005–2015) from an assemblage of administrative and survey datasets and tested linear, quadratic, and lagged models. Our fixed-effects results are consistent with both strands in the literature with caveats. First, Filipinos are more likely to work abroad when they experience less-intense tropical cyclones and storm warning signal but are more likely to stay with a more damaging storm warning signal. Second, differential effects of weather shocks on international migration contingent on agriculture exists. Third, non-environmental factors such as economic (unemployment rate) and infrastructure (number of high schools) also push Filipinos abroad.
Topic:
Agriculture, Environment, Migration, Natural Disasters, and Weather
Political Geography:
Philippines and Asia-Pacific

13. Recognizing Natural Disasters as a Concern for Transitional Justice

Author:
Megan Bradley
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
Abstract:
Grave and systematic human rights violations in disaster situations should be recognized as a concern for the field of transitional justice. Transitional justice mechanisms such as truth commissions, memorials, restitution and compensation programs and trials may, in some cases, make significant contributions to redressing abuses in disaster situations. Victims' perspectives and priorities should guide discussions on the relevance and application of particular transitional justice mechanisms.
Topic:
Human Rights, Natural Disasters, and Transitional Justice
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14. Unregulated Population Migration and Other Future Drivers of Instability in the Pacific

Author:
Rita Parker
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Potential drivers of unregulated population migration in the Pacific Islands require attention from regional governments including Australia. The challenges of unregulated population migration in the Pacific Islands region are the result of several push-pull factors and can lead to instability and insecurity in the region. Unregulated population migration in the Pacific Islands region has implications for more than one nation state and civil society and the balance of security and domestic stability can be disrupted. The challenge for policymakers is to recognise that drivers of unregulated population migration, including political or economic uncertainty, natural disasters, pandemics, climatic or environmental change, food or water scarcity, civil conflict, or organised crime, do not occur in isolation.
Topic:
Security, Government, Migration, Natural Disasters, Immigration, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Australia and Asia-Pacific

15. Caribbean Economies and the Year Ahead 2018

Author:
Scott MacDonald
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Caribbean economies face 2018 with mixed prospects. While overall trends are positive for most countries, a number of economies are still struggling from the damage sustained during last year’s hurricane season. The positive forces at work are a stronger global economic expansion, improving prospects for tourism, development of the oil industry in the Guiana Shield, and a strengthening in commodity prices. On the negative side are the costs of reconstruction, ongoing fiscal pressures in a handful of states, and the increasing negative consequences of an imploding Venezuela. Significant questions continue to exist as to U.S. policy in the region, spillover of Brexit, Chinese Caribbean policy, and a rising level of Russian engagement in some countries. In all of this, the Caribbean remains vulnerable to events external to the region and increasingly needs to focus on digital technology and how it can be applied to make local economies more competitive. During much of 2017, growth prospects were generally positive, helped along by a stronger expansion in the advanced economies, stabilization in commodity prices, and a higher level of remittances from the Caribbean diaspora. The Dominican Republic led the way, though at a slower pace than the year prior due to efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit. Better tourist numbers also lifted growth prospects in much of the Eastern Caribbean and Jamaica. The laggards were Puerto Rico (with a $72 billion debt crisis), the U.S. Virgin Islands (dealing with acute fiscal pressures), Barbados (struggling with deteriorating public finances and reduced capital market access), and commodity exporters Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago. While most Caribbean countries and dependencies were fortunate to avoid massive destruction during the 2017 hurricane season, storms Irma and Maria brought considerable disruption to Barbuda, Dominica, St. Martin (both the French and Dutch sides), the British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgins Islands. Category 5 Hurricane Maria in September was the worst natural disaster on record in Dominica and certainly ranks in the top 10 for Puerto Rico. Indeed, both Dominica and Puerto Rico were left effectively without economies.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Disasters, Tourism, Digital Economy, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Caribbean, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Barbados, and Puerto Rico

16. Protection for Those Who Need It Most: Sustainable Property Insurance in High-risk Areas

Author:
Jason Thistlethwaite and Daniel Henstra
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Private property insurance is an efficient, resilient and legitimate approach to disaster recovery, but flood insurance premiums in high-risk areas are too expensive for many property owners to afford. Comparing flood insurance regimes in other states demonstrates the difficult balance between ensuring coverage is available and keeping it affordable for policyholders. Sustaining property insurance in high-risk areas in Canada requires a partnership whereby governments invest strategically in risk reduction and inform Canadians about the location of high-risk areas, while insurers provide coverage and adjust premiums to reward community-level actions that reduce risk.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Maritime, and Insurance
Political Geography:
Canada

17. Flood Risk Mapping in Canada: Moving Forward on a National Priority

Author:
Daniel Henstra and Jason Thistlethwaite
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
To improve public awareness of flood risk and meet its commitment to the United Nations Sendai Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction, Canada must develop up-to-date flood risk maps and make them publicly available. Effective flood maps improve risk perception, ensure information is accessible and stimulate risk reduction. Good flood maps provide: information to personalize the experience of flooding; local and historical context; a legend; legible flood extents; definitions of scientific and technical terminology; transparency on uncertainty and limitations; data on all forms of flooding; and risk reduction advice. Until a more coordinated map development process can occur, the Government of Canada should create a national online repository where existing maps are collected and made publicly accessible.
Topic:
Science and Technology, United Nations, Natural Disasters, Maritime, Flood, and Maping
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

18. Toward an Effective Indigenous Knowledge Protection Regime: Case Study of South Africa

Author:
Margo A. Bagley
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
South Africa has a rich tradition of Indigenous knowledge covering uses of the country’s abundant natural resources. South Africa’s development of a multi-faceted framework for cultural and genetic resource protection in relation to Indigenous knowledge is a promising source of fruitful insights on the challenges and benefits of implementing such protections. As the first in a series of case studies featuring various models of traditional knowledge implementation in domestic legislation, this paper provides an overview of how South Africa is approaching the protection of traditional or Indigenous knowledge. A central aim of this series is to provide objective evidence and insight into national experiences that could serve to inform and support effective policy development in the field, without endorsing any particular national approach.
Topic:
Nationalism, Natural Disasters, and Indigenous
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

19. Selective Mortality and the Long-term Effects of Early-life Exposure to Natural Disasters

Author:
Margaret Triyana and Xing Xia
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
We analyze the effects of early-life shocks with varying degrees of severity on mortality and human capital outcomes in the Philippines. We exploit variations in typhoon exposure and the introduction of a short-term post-disaster relief policy. Severe typhoons are associated with increased mortality and adverse long-term outcomes. Before the disaster relief policy, mortality from in utero exposure to severe typhoons was 10 percent, and survivors exhibited similar levels of human capital as the unaffected. Once implemented, the policy appears to have mitigated the mortality effect of severe typhoons, and survivors have lower human capital in the long term.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Natural Disasters, Human Capital, and Mortality
Political Geography:
Philippines

20. Assessing the Post-Disaster Needs in Agriculture Sector

Author:
Naresh Singh
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
The great majority of communities affected by disasters in developing countries are directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. Climate change has been linked to a significant increase in the frequency and severity of disasters in the recent past, leading to natural hazardous events that have had several negative repercussions on the agriculture sector and sub-sectors (i.e. crops, livestock, fishery and aquaculture) and on the life of the people depending on them. This paper will firstly review the commonly used methods of assessing the damages and losses to the agriculture sector and its sub-sectors, with particular emphasis on the strengths and limitations of the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) methodology. After that, it will consider the financial implications of disasters and discuss the necessity of developing follow-up mechanisms to assess the proportion of disbursed funds required to implement response interventions. This will involve an analysis of the extent to which agriculture assistance is usually prioritized in the formal and informal sector, and the typology of targeted and assisted beneficiaries with an emphasis on the gender dimension. The paper concludes with recommendations aiming at improving the current standardized processes of assessing the impacts and effects of disasters, in order to enhance the effectiveness of needs assessment towards resource mobilization and recovery processes.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:
Global Focus