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11. 2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

Author:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Corruption, Migration, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Partnerships, Weapons, Xi Jinping, Strategic Competition, Logistics, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Middle East, Asia, Arctic, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

12. Analysing the German construction industry’s supply chains

Author:
Johanna Neuhoff, Hannah Zick, and Andy Logan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The supply chain disruptions triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, the blockade of the Suez Canal, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were historically unique for Germany’s construction sector. Our research showed how these supply chain disruptions affected construction companies in various ways and identified strategies to help overcome them. The dominant effects were higher purchase prices, longer waiting times, and increased resources devoted towards planning. These longer waiting times meant greater difficulties in processing existing orders and a consequent need to forego new orders, which in turn led to a loss of turnover. Our research also found its supply chain was more globally intertwined than previously understood: the sector generates 40% of gross value added via imported services. Thirteen of the 57 imported intermediate inputs were found to be highly vulnerable. Other industry-specific characteristics include a high level of manufacturing complexity, which leads to a large number of required products. Meanwhile warehousing is often difficult, meaning supply chain interruptions have a direct impact on production capacity. Our recommendations to the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs, and Spatial Development were that companies should: Control their supply chains as completely as possible with digital technologies —from procurement and logistics to delivery to the construction site; Use digitalisation to detect disruptions at an earlier stage and react to them; Secure greater supply of raw materials through domestic production; Replace fossil energy sources with renewable energies; Select their suppliers in a diversified manner as far as possible; and Promote innovation for new future technologies.
Topic:
Manufacturing, Renewable Energy, Fossil Fuels, COVID-19, Logistics, Supply Chains, Production, Construction, Russia-Ukraine War, Digital Technologies, and Warehousing
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

13. China’s strategic relevance to the port of Rotterdam

Author:
Xiaoxue Martin and Frans-Paul van der Putten
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This report analyses whether recent, current and expected China-related developments may threaten the strategic position of the port of Rotterdam in terms of freight flows and how this might play out. This report is based on research conducted on behalf of the Port of Rotterdam Authority. The report comprises four sections covering the following topics, respectively: Changes in Chinese government policy and Chinese corporate strategies towards European seaports, and specifically the Rotterdam port area. Changing attitudes of the EU and the Netherlands towards Chinese influence in European seaports due to geopolitical factors. Chinese interests and ownership in the port of Rotterdam, including the (future) development of Chinese FDI and freight flow. Sanction scenarios and changing freight flows.
Topic:
Development, Geopolitics, Logistics, and Ports
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Netherlands, and Rotterdam

14. Towards Enhanced Connectivity and Sustainability in the Mediterranean Transport and Logistics Sector. Trends in Trade, Maritime Transport, and Sustainability

Author:
Enric Ticó, Ghazi Ben Ahmed, Paul Tourret, Maite Roman, and Jordi Torrent
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The Mediterranean Sea has currently become one of the main centres of international transport through which large quantities of goods are moved every year. Its position as a strategic transit area for a large amount of goods, especially transported by sea, makes it a logistical node of capital importance. According to the report of the Spanish Short Sea Shipping Statistical Observatory (SSS) for the year 2021, overall SSS traffic on the Mediterranean coast increased by 26.9%, exceeding the pre-pandemic figures. The Mediterranean geographical area is characterised, among other things, by the great heterogeneity of countries and actors that are present in the institutional, political, economic, and even social spheres, as it is the meeting point of three continents. This means that, although the movement of goods is a very active sector, there is still much room for improvement in the development of trade among actors of such an area (it has more strength as a logistic node than as a commerce centre itself). The strengthening of trade relations between all countries of the Mediterranean area should have a positive impact on a global level, facilitating the joint development of all those countries. However, the aforementioned existing heterogeneity at the political and economic level sometimes acts as a brake or blocking factor in the development and commercial collaboration among the parties. The first, or simplest, analysis of the applicable regimes or the nature of transactions would be that of a North-South division. This makes sense due to the fact that the majority of the northern front countries are members of the European Union (EU) and, consequently, of the Customs Territory of the Union (CTU), while the remaining are sovereign and independent countries with a very heterogeneous profile, including political or cultural issues. This makes difficult the establishment of stable and long-lasting relations among the parties. We are therefore far from being able to consider that there is a trade regime specific to the Mediterranean Sea, or to companies in such area, apt for the facilitation of international transactions. The current situation represents a historic opportunity for this commercial development: the pandemic has led to a change in production patterns, bringing them closer to the areas of consumption and, therefore, to the Mediterranean Sea itself. Certain supply chains will shift from global to regional, so the improvement of the area’s supply chain is key.
Topic:
Transportation, Sustainability, Logistics, and Connectivity
Political Geography:
Mediterranean

15. Russia’s War in Ukraine: Russian Military Logistics

Author:
Ronald Ti
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
In the third brief of the series, Dr Ronald Ti examines Russia’s failures in planning and executing logistics operations for its war in Ukraine. In large part, these failures can be attributed to systemic weaknesses such as its ‘push’ (rather than ‘pull’) approach to expeditionary logistics, overly centralised command, a lack of non-commissioned officers, and a culture of bullying and corruption. Ronald Ti, PhD candidate at War Studies Department of King’s College London, cautions that Baltic and other planners should not assume that the Russian military will repeat their poor performance in Ukraine against other adversaries in the future, but also notes that Russia’s military culture is highly resilient and therefore difficult to change.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Logistics, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Baltic States

16. Navigating an uncertain future: An exploration of China’s influence on the Netherlands’ future maritime logistics hub function

Author:
Frans-Paul van der Putten and Xiaoxue Martin
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The maritime logistics hub function is of strategic importance to the Netherlands as a trading country. The Netherlands positions itself as the ‘Gateway to Europe’ thanks to its advanced logistics network and plays an important role in the global economy. This position nevertheless faces an uncertain future: there is no guarantee that the Netherlands will remain a leader in the years ahead. Geopolitics, and particularly the influence of China, will have a major impact on the Dutch maritime logistics hub function. On behalf of the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, this report examines China’s influence on the Netherlands’ maritime logistics hub function. The main question posed in the study is: How is China’s influence on the central position of the Netherlands’ maritime logistics hub function likely to evolve in the decades ahead and what possible actions could the Dutch government take in response to it? The purpose of this study is to assess scenarios as a basis for possible actions by the Dutch government and the Dutch maritime logistics sector, particularly with regard to the Netherlands’ central position and strategic autonomy as a maritime logistics hub.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Maritime, and Logistics
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Netherlands

17. Modernizing Ukraine’s Transport and Logistics Infrastructure

Author:
Romina Bandura, Janina Staguhn, and Benjamin Jensen
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine is yielding devastating human and material costs. But with the destruction comes a rare opportunity to modernize Ukraine’s economy by building state-of-the-art infrastructure. Rebuilding hospitals, schools, and housing will be critical to bringing refugees back, while constructing new roads and rail networks alongside ports and airfields could catalyze the economic reconstruction and link the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to global supply chains and markets. Infrastructure investments can achieve a rare combination of political and economic objectives, connecting Ukraine to Europe while helping its large industrial base and educated workforce reach global markets. In other words, rebuilding the transportation and logistics infrastructure in Ukraine provides an opportunity for democratic leaders to realize the vision of the Group of Seven (G7) Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII). A successful reconstruction would include a Ukraine that is connected to and firmly embedded in the Euro-Atlantic community. Ukraine has a large industrial base, with a well-educated and skilled population that has the potential to build a highly competitive manufacturing sector to complement the European Union. However, to unlock this potential, Ukraine needs to build quality transport and logistics infrastructure (i.e., civilian airports, roads, bridges, ports, and railways) connected to the West. Over the next 10 years, the transport and logistics infrastructure sector will require significant financing, prioritization, and coordination among the Ukrainian government and international actors (bilateral partners, multilateral institutions, and the private sector). Foreign direct investment (FDI), including through long-term public-private partnership and concession contracts financed by the private sector, will also be critical for funding large-scale projects and providing know-how so there is a world-class infrastructure base in Ukraine. International donors and foreign investors need to assess how to best support Ukraine’s future economic and trade recovery, specifically regarding its transport and logistics infrastructure. Ukraine can also be the country where the PGII conducts its first project, testing its capabilities and providing a demonstration for other investors.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Modernization, Transportation, and Logistics
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

18. Belt and Road Initiative vs. Baltic Sea Region. The perspectives of the container transport market in Poland

Author:
Aleksandra Bartosiewicz and Paulina Szterlik
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
Poland is a key element of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It is also an active container shipping participant in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR). The aim of the article is to determine whether further development of the BRI is a threat for the Polish BSR container shipping, and vice versa. The main tools used to achieve the objectives mentioned above include a literature review, logical reasoning and statistical analysis. The results of a survey on the importance of chosen factors for the further development of the BRI in Poland, as well as the SWOT analysis of these factors are also part of the proposed study. The performed research shows that such factors as expansion of deep water infrastructure, the increase of seaport transhipment potential or competitiveness of the BSR are among biggest threats to the future of the BRI in Poland. At the same time, it seems that in the near future, the further development of the BRI will not significantly affect the container shipping in the BSR.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Maritime, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Transportation, and Logistics
Political Geography:
China, Baltic Sea, and Baltic States

19. China Maritime Report No. 21: Civilian Shipping and Maritime Militia: The Logistics Backbone of a Taiwan Invasion

Author:
Lonnie D. Henley
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
Most analysts looking at the Chinese military threat to Taiwan conclude that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is incapable of invading the island because it lacks the landing ships to transport adequate quantities of troops and equipment across the Taiwan Strait. This report challenges that conventional wisdom, arguing that the PLA intends to meet these requirements by requisitioning civilian vessels operated by members of China’s maritime militia (海上民兵). Since the early 2000s, the Chinese government and military have taken steps to strengthen the national defense mobilization system to ensure the military has ample quantities of trained militia forces to support a cross-strait invasion. Despite ongoing challenges—including poor data management, inconsistent training quality, and gaps in the regulatory system—and uncertainties associated with foreign-flagged Chinese ships, this concept of operations could prove good enough to enable a large-scale amphibious assault.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Armed Forces, Militias, Logistics, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Invasion
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

20. Shifting Mindsets | Section 3: Systems for greater flexibility

Author:
Alice Obrecht
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:
This standalone section of the ALNAP study 'Shifting mindsets: creating a more flexible humanitarian response' focuses on organisational systems to support flexibility. This is one of the three pillars that flexibility relies upon according to this research and also one of the starting points to make humanitarian responses more flexible. It covers flexible approaches in: logistics, supply chain and procurement systems; programme design and programme cycle management; and monitoring of these systems.
Topic:
Procurement, Logistics, Supply Chains, Monitoring, Humanitarian Response, and Flexibility
Political Geography:
Global Focus