Search

Begin New Search Topic Labor Issues Publication Year within 25 Years

691. A State-Dependent Model for Inflation Forecasting

Author:
Andrea Stella and James H. Stock
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We develop a parsimonious bivariate model of inflation and unemployment that allows for persistent variation in trend inflation and in the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. The model, which consists of five unobserved components including the trends) with stochastic volatility, implies a time-varying vector autoregression model for changes in the rates of inflation and unemployment. The implied backwards-looking Phillips curve has a time-varying slope that is steeper in the 1970s than in the 1990s. Pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiments indicate improvements upon univariate benchmarks. Since 2008, the implied Phillips curve has become steeper and the the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment has increased.
Topic:
Development, Labor Issues, Inflation, State Building, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

692. Constraints on the demand for youth labour in Zambia

Author:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR), Grayson Koyi, Gibson Masumbu, and Albert Halwampa
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Zambia is one of many developing countries struggling to create adequate employment opportunities for its people, especially in the formal economy. Unemployment is highest among youths (15–24 years old) and particularly affects those without skills. Unless the challenge of youth unemployment is met, Zambia could face rising poverty levels in the future. Based on a survey of firms in the mining and quarrying, manufacturing, and construction industries, this study analyses constraints on the demand for youth labour and identifies five broad policy areas in which the government could help make it easier for firms to absorb more young people.
Topic:
Development, Labor Issues, Youth, Mining, Manufacturing, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

693. Understanding youth labour demand constraints in Zambia: The mining, manufacturing and construction sectors

Author:
Grayson Koyi, Gibson Masumbu, and Albert Halwampa
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Zambia is among many developing countries struggling to create adequate employment opportunities for its people, especially in the formal economy. There is high youth unemployment, especially in urban areas where it has surged to 40.4% for females and 35.6% for males (CSO 2011, 95). Sender et al. (2005) attribute the high youth unemployment rates in Zambia to the socio-economic crisis of the past two decades and the young and increasing population that is producing an ever bigger youth labour force. Mayaka and Moyo (1999) further observe that youth unemployment mainly affects those without skills. A new challenge is the revised minimum wage legislation, which could influence youth employment levels if formal sector employers opt to lay off excess labour in order to contain labour-related costs of production. Unless the challenge of youth unemployment is met, Zambia could face rising poverty levels in the future. The new government has made pronouncements about expanding employment opportunities for youths, but without good data and information about labour demand dynamics, the government’s good intentions are likely to face severe challenges. Closing this knowledge gap is a necessary step in identifying corrective policy measures.
Topic:
Development, Labor Issues, Youth, Mining, Manufacturing, Unemployment, and Construction
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

694. A Generalized Fact and Model of Long-Run Economic Growth: Kaldor Fact as a Special Case

Author:
Daniel Danxia Xie
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
This paper provides new evidence on the long-run relationship between economic growth and labor's share in national income, based on a comprehensive panel data set for 123 countries from 1950 to 2004. Xie's primary finding is that labor's share follows a cubic relationship with real GDP per capita over the long process of development. At the beginning of the modern economic growth process, the share of labor in national income first decreases until an initial threshold is reached. After that, labor's share keeps increasing until the country's GDP per capita reaches a second threshold before falling again. Xie argues that these dynamics apply not only to the less developed countries in the postwar years, but also to the advanced countries like the United States and the United Kingdom during their early economic take-offs, starting in the late 18th and 19th century, respectively. Finally, he proposes a two-sector constant elasticity of substitution (CES)-type growth model and simulate the model to replicate and explain the possible mechanism behind such a nonlinear pattern of movements in labor's share.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Labor Issues, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States and United Kingdom

695. The Evolving Structure of the American Economy and the Employment Challenge

Author:
Michael Spence and Sandile Hlatshwayo
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
This paper examines the evolving structure of the American economy, specifically, the trends in employment, value added, and value added per employee from 1990 to 2008. These trends are closely connected with complementary trends in the size and structure of the global economy, particularly in the major emerging economies. Employing historical time series data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. industries are separated into internationally tradable and nontradable components, allowing for employment and value-added trends at both the industry and the aggregate level to be examined. Value added grew across the economy, but almost all of the incremental employment increase of 27.3 million jobs was on the nontradable side. On the nontradable side, government and health care are the largest employers and provided the largest increments (an additional 10.4 million jobs) over the past two decades. There are obvious questions about whether those trends can continue; without fast job creation in the nontradable sector, the United States would already have faced a major employment challenge.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and America

696. Refugees and IDPs after Conflict: Why They Do Not Go Home

Author:
Patricia Weiss Fagan
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Programs to return refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) to their homes after conflict, implemented by national authorities with international support, frequently leave far too many without viable futures. The measures are often inadequate for three reasons: a widely shared but flawed assumption that the need to create a future for returnees is satisfied by restoring them to their prior lives; a lack of long-term engagement by implementing authorities; and a focus on rural reintegration when many refugees and IDPs are returning to urban areas. These arguments are illustrated in four country cases—Bosnia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Burundi. In each case, the places that refugees and IDPs were forced to flee have been greatly reshaped. They often lack security and economic opportunities; governance is weak and services are inadequate. Returnees have made choices about their futures in large part on the basis of these factors. While reclaiming land or receiving compensation for losses is important, the challenge for many returnees is to settle where they can maintain sustainable livelihoods; find peaceful living conditions; have access to health care, education, and employment opportunities; and enjoy full rights of citizenship. This may mean a move from rural to urban areas and a change in the source of income generation that has to be accounted for in the design of reintegration programs. Returning refugees and IDPs should be assisted for a sufficient amount of time to determine which location and livelihood will suit them best. For international organizations, this may involve greater creativity and flexibility in supporting returnees in urban settings. To accommodate inflows of returnees and their general mobility, national and local governments should develop urban planning strategies to manage the growth of their cities, coupled with regional development plans in rural areas that may involve investment in commercial agriculture. Linking rural and urban areas by strengthening government institutions can also provide returnees with more livelihood options and promote development.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Refugee Issues, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Bosnia, Middle East, Balkans, and Burundi

697. DoD Workforce Cost Realism Assessment

Author:
David J. Berteau, Guy Ben-Ari, Joachim Hofbauer, Gregory Kiley, and Jesse Ellman
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Over the past decade, federal spending on service contracts more than doubled in constant terms, from $164 billion in 2000 to $343 billion in 2010. Policymakers have recently attempted to reduce or even reverse this increase, emphasizing instead what is now called the “insourcing” of services contracts. Conversions from contractors to government civilians, as well as other actions to expand the federal workforce, are being undertaken for political and cost savings reasons. In this study, CSIS looks into recent developments of these insourcing efforts within one executive department: the Department of Defense (DoD). DoD is the largest government department in terms of demand for services. In 2010, it awarded $161 billion worth of service contracts, up from $67 billion in 2000. This report reviews the analytical validity of the current policy and practices and proposes an alternative methodology for conducting better sourcing decisions between private and public providers.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Government, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States

698. Labour Immigration Policy in the EU: A Renewed Agenda for Europe 2020

Author:
Sergio Carrera, Elspeth Guild, Anaïs Faure Atger, and Dora Kostakopoulou
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The EU's capacity for a legitimate, coherent and migrants' rights compliant policy on labour immigration is now more than ever at a test in light of the political priorities set in the EU's 2020 Strategy and the effects of the revolutions and war in North African states during the last four months. This Policy Brief examines the incoherencies characterising the current generation of EU's labour immigration policies and the challenges towards ensuring a global rights-based approach to migration. The analysis carried out in this paper is accompanied by a synthesis of the main policy recommendations discussed at the Workshop on “The Next Phase of EU Labour Immigration Policy: Enhancing Policy Coherence and Advancing a Rights-Based Approach” organised in the context of the Conference “State of the Union: Brussels Think Tank Dialogue 2011” in January 2011.
Topic:
Labor Issues and Immigration
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

699. Globalization and Unemployment

Author:
Michael Spence
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Jobs growth was slow in May, renewing pessimism about the U.S. economy. Spence, a Nobel Prize-winning economist writes that economic growth and employment in the United States have started to diverge, increasing income inequality and reducing jobs for less-educated workers.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Poverty, and Labor Issues

700. Globalization, Wages, and Working Conditions: A Case Study of Cambodian Garment Factories

Author:
Cael Warren and Raymond Robertson
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
We use a comprehensive data set of working conditions and wage compliance in Cambodia's exporting garment factories to explore (1) the impact of foreign ownership on wages and working conditions, (2) whether the relationship between wages and working conditions within these exporting factories more closely resembles efficiency wage or compensating differential theory, and (3) whether the wage-working conditions relationship differs between domestically owned and foreign-owned firms. We find that foreign ownership increases compliance on both wages and working conditions, contradicting the contention that higher wages in foreign-owned firms compensate workers for worse working conditions. In addition, we find a robust positive relationship between wages and working conditions in the sample as a whole, suggesting that efficiency wages or a similar theory more accurately explains the behavior of these exporting firms than compensating differentials.
Topic:
Development, Industrial Policy, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Cambodia and Southeast Asia