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842. Myanmar: White elephant or new tiger economy?
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The new government in Myanmar has made a series of liberalising gestures over the past year, raising hopes that it is serious about meaningful political reform. Coming after national elections in November 2010, the release from house-arrest of the pro-democracy icon, Aung San Suu Kyi, and by-elections in 2012, many observers are concluding that Myanmar is finally embarking on a process of genuine democratisation. Aung San Suu Kyi is among those who have expressed optimism over future changes in the country, with her confidence bolstered by the release of hundreds of political prisoners in recent months. As ties with Western governments slowly thaw, there is now a high probability that sanctions and other restrictions on trade and investment will be lifted over the next year or so, and foreign investors are taking note of the opportunities that could soon present themselves.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Asia
843. Boatloads of Growth: Recapturing America's Share of Asia-Pacific Trade
- Author:
- Ed Gerwin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Third Way
- Abstract:
- By 2020, the Asia-Pacific's $10 trillion import market will present vast opportunities to support U.S. economic growth and wider prosperity for America's Middle Class. But, over the past decade, the U.S. share of key Asia-Pacific markets has actually plummeted–by over 40%. Retaking America's share of these rapidly expanding economies—beginning with trade deals like the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP)—could pay huge dividends: over a half trillion dollars in additional U.S. exports, supporting millions of good American jobs.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Asia
844. The Economy Is Slowing, But Perhaps Not For Long
- Author:
- Irwin M. Stelzer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Slow, slower, and may be even stop. That's a quick summary of how Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke sees the US economy. The economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5% last year, 1.9% in the first quarter of this year, "and available indicators point to a still-smaller gain in the second quarter" he advised congress last week. Household spending is slowing down because "confidence remains relatively low" (at its lowest level since December); numerous factors (a supply overhang, unavailability of credit) "impede growth" in the housing sector; manufacturing production has slowed; business investment has "decelerated"; there is "further weakness ahead" for investment demand; and "reduction in the unemployment rate seems likely to be frustratingly slow."
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States
845. Fear Athens Less and Washington More
- Author:
- Irwin M. Stelzer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- There comes a tide in the affairs of men And the one sweeping from Greece, across Europe and into the United States is washing away support for austerity, in some cases reinforcing opposition to it, largely from the Left. President Obama is delighted at this support for his refusal to cut spending in the face of mounting deficits, and the Republicans are feeling beleaguered at what they see as the disinterment of the body of works of John Maynard Keynes. No longer must the President sit at G8 meetings (in this weekend's case, G7 since Vladimir Putin finds it necessary to stay at home to deal with an unpleasant spate of dissent) and hear only the voice of Germany's iron Chancellor, Angela Merkel, extolling the virtues of thrift, austerity and balanced budgets. Now he has France's new socialist President, François Hollande, to preach the virtues of spending, "the indispensable stimulation of the economy", and, even better, high taxes-- up to 75% on incomes in excess of $1.35 million per year, which makes the team of Buffett and Obama mere pikers at the soak-the-rich game. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed the administration's delight at Hollande's "different political approach Different voices may be louder on growth than they have been It's been our view that there needed to be adjustments to austerity, so that there could be growth, both for economic reasons and for political reasons President Obama and our economic team have been saying for some time that growth had to factor into a European recovery." Take that, Mrs. Merkel and all you Republicans who want to cut entitlement spending and retain the Bush tax cuts that benefit "millionaires and billionaires", Obama shorthand for families earning more than $250,000 per year.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Budget
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Washington, Greece, and France
846. Future Marketplace: Free and Fair
- Author:
- Hanns Kuttner
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- In any market, buyers seek out the seller who offers the lowest prices and best terms. Government can distort markets by decreasing or increasing prices through subsidies, taxes or regulation. Compared to a free market, distortion means different sellers get the sale and at different prices.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Science and Technology
847. How Safe Is the U.S. Safe Haven?
- Author:
- Irwin M. Stelzer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- This version of the glorious sonnet composed by Emma Lazarus in 1883, and later engraved on a bronze plaque installed on the Statue of Liberty, calling the world's huddled masses to our shores, captures what it means these days to be a safe haven. Just as America proved to be such a safe haven for immigrants in the latter 19th and early 20th centuries, it is now seen as a safe haven for wealth attempting to escape Europe's tax collectors and financial chaos and recession in Europe, and for foreign central banks newly enamored of the dollar.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Immigration, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Germany
848. A Rapidly Changing Energy World, Or Perhaps Not
- Author:
- Irwin M. Stelzer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Slow growth here and in China, and recession in Europe are reducing demand for oil. Inventories in the U.S. are at a 22-year high. The Federal Reserve Board's QEs that pumped paper money into the economy and drove up the nominal price of oil have come to an end. And the twelve OPEC oil cartelists, who between them supply 40% of the world's oil, are producing 1.6 million barrels in excess of the agreed daily quota of 30 million barrels. As a result, U.S. benchmark crude oil prices are now closer to $80 per barrel than to the $110 they reached only four months ago.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Europe
849. Inheriting Recessions
- Author:
- Tim Kane
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Three of the last six U.S. presidents have inherited a recessionary economy: Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama. Let's define "inheriting a recession" as meaning that on the date a president is sworn into office, the economy is technically still in recession or enters one within a few months. Most economists would agree that presidents have little short-term control over the economy, but that their fiscal policies can be implemented quickly and affect macroeconomic performance after the first year. Reagan, inaugurated in January 1981, actually endured a double-dip recession-one that had been raging since early 1980 and a second that hit in July 1981-but the economy experienced a strong and sustained recovery that began in November 1982 during his second year in the White House. Bush was inaugurated in January 2001, and the economy entered recession just weeks later. Obama entered office in January 2009, like Reagan, after the United States had been in recession for a full year.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States
850. Kazakhstan's Energy Sector Since Independence: Two Decades of Growth and Challenges Ahead?
- Author:
- Katherine Hardin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Since its independence in 1991, Kazakhstan has tripled its oil production, taking its place among the top twenty oil producers globally. The country currently produces more than 1.7 million barrels per day (mbd), an amount roughly equal to Libya's 2010 production. Over the past decade, Kazakhstan's oil reserves estimates have nearly doubled, placing it among the top five countries that will account for more than half of the global liquids capacity growth to 2020. Kazakhstan's considerable resource base has been a critical factor in this success, but the government of Kazakhstan under President Nursultan Nazarbayev has also made strategic choices to attract investment into the energy sector and has successfully crafted a "multivectoral" energy policy with its neighbors, particularly in the case of energy transportation. This paper highlights key stages in Kazakhstan's emergence as a major energy producer, but points to challenges that lie ahead as the country continues to increase oil and gas production and exports.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Libya