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551. Exploring the Prospects for Russian-Turkish Cooperation in a Turbulent Neighborhood

Author:
Dmitri V. Trenin and Memduh Karakullukçu
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Even though tensions over Ukraine will inevitably cast a shadow over the bilateral relationship, Russia and Turkey—a NATO member—continue to share a range of important interests. Indeed, there are a number of areas in which the two can work together in their common neighborhood, which stretches from the South Caucasus and the Levant to Central Asia and Afghanistan. A high-level working group on Russian-Turkish regional cooperation has sketched a forward-looking approach for Russia and Turkey in tackling regional challenges.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

552. His Excellency Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan

Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
This World Leaders Forum program features an address by His Excellency Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan, followed by a question and answer session with the audience.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Japan and East Asia

553. The Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership:European Disintegration, Unemployment and Instability

Author:
Jeronim Capaldo
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
According to its proponents, the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership will stimulate growth in Europe and in the US. Projections endorsed by the European Commission point to positive, although negligible, gains in terms of GDP and personal incomes. In a paradox, these projections also show that any gains in Trans-Atlantic trade would happen at the expense of intra-EU trade reversing the process of European economic integration. Furthermore, recent literature has pointed out several problems in the most influential assessment of the TTIP's effects. Projections by different institutions have been shown to rely on the same Computable General Equilibrium model that has proven inadequate as a tool for trade policy analysis. In this paper we assess the effects of TTIP using the United Nations Global Policy Model, which incorporates more sensible assumptions on macroeconomic adjustment, employment dynamics, and global trade. We project that TTIP will lead to a contraction of GDP, personal incomes and employment. We also project an increase in financial instability and a continuing downward trend in the labor share of GDP. Evaluated with the United Nations model, TTIP appears to favor economic dis-integration, rather than integration, in Europe. At a minimum, this shows that official studies do not offer a solid basis for an informed decision on TTIP.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and United Nations

554. Avoiding the Blind Alley: China's Economic Overhaul and Its Global Implications

Author:
Daniel H. Rosen
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
PRESIDENT XI JINPING ANNOUNCED a sweeping overhaul for China's economy in November 2013, with pledges to make market forces decisive, treat homegrown and foreign investors with the same laws and regulations, and change the mission statement of the government. The reform program, known as the Decisions plan and presented at the Communist Party leadership's Third Plenum meeting, is comprehensive and marks a turning point in China's modern history. The degree of boldness also indicates that after 35 years of world-beating economic performance, China's development model is obsolete and in need of urgent, not gradual, replacement. To justify the risks, President Xi quoted an impassioned plea for policy modernization by his predecessor Deng Xiaoping: the only way to avoid a dead end – a blind alley – is to deepen reform and opening both at home and with the world.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Reform
Political Geography:
China

555. Implementing Structural Reforms in Abenomics: How to Reduce the Cost of Doing Business in Japan

Author:
Jamal Ibrahim Haidar and Takeo Hoshi
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Improving the environment for business is an important part of the growth strategy of Abenomics. As the KPI (Key Performance Indicator) for this effort, the Abe Administration aims to improve Japan's rank in the World Bank Doing Business Ranking from the current #15 among high-income OECD countries to one of the top three. This paper clarifies what it takes for Japan to be among top three countries in terms of ease of doing business. By looking at details of the World Bank Doing Business ranking, we identify various reforms that Japan could implement to improve the ranking. Then, we classify the reforms into four groups depending on whether the reform requires legal changes and whether the reform is likely to face strong political resistance. By just doing the reforms that do not require legal changes and are not likely to face strong political opposition, Japan can improve the ranking to 9th. To be in the top 3, Japan would need to implement all the reforms except for those that require changing the laws and are likely to face strong political resistance, even under the unrealistic assumption that the other countries do not reduce the cost of doing business. Thus, in order to be one of the top three countries among OECD countries in terms of ease of doing business, Japan would most likely need to carry out all the reforms identified in this paper.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Japan

556. Impact Inventing: Strengthening the Ecosystem for Invention-Based Entrepreneurship in Emerging Markets

Author:
Alexander N. Pan
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Over the past decade, a growing segment of social entrepreneurs and small and growing businesses(SGBs) has emerged that seeks to utilize the power of invention to create products and companies that improve the lives of people living in poverty around the world. We call this class of entrepreneur-looking to develop and disseminate tangible products that will be manufactured and sold at high volumes via market mechanisms-an invention-based entrepreneur.1 ANDE believes that invention-based entrepreneurs are supported or impeded by a number of environmental factors, or the entrepreneurial ecosystem in which they work. While ANDE and our members have made significant progress toward strengthening these entrepreneurial ecosystems in emerging markets, invention-based entrepreneurs have a unique set of needs that differentiates them from typical SGBs. Consequently, we believe we can improve the ecosystem to support the growth of this industry, and thereby unleash the full potential impact of these invention-based entrepreneurs.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States and South Africa

557. Mapping the Impact Investing Sector in Brazil

Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
During the past 10 years of impact investing in Brazil, we have observed a significant development in the impact investing space. Five years ago, only a few players identified themselves as impact investors, very few organizations in the social sector were investor-ready, and there were almost no co-investment opportunities. A steep increase in the number of investors and amount of capital, greater coordination among players, and a more professional workforce active in the industry today have facilitated the development of impact investing. This market study of the impact investing sector in Brazil reveals significant market growth. Nineteen of Brazil's largest impact investors, including fund managers, banks, foundations, family offices and others surveyed expect to commit 40% to 50% more capital to impact investments in 2014 compared to 2013.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Latin America

558. The Weightless Marketplace: Coming to Terms with Innovative Payment Systems, Digital Currencies and Online Labor Markets

Author:
David Bollier
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The structure and character of commerce has changed dramatically since the arrival of the World Wide Web and various digital technologies, particularly mobile phones and large, interconnected databases. Consumers now have much greater market power and choice. Markets can more easily scale, often globally. Co-production and fluid producer/consumer interactions are routine. Transactions themselves have become far cheaper and more easily consummated.
Topic:
Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Science and Technology, Communications, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

559. Was the ECB's Comprehensive Assessment up to standard?

Author:
Willem Pieter De Groen
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The Comprehensive Assessment conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB) representsa considerable step forward in enhancing transparency ineuro-area banks' balance sheets. The most notable progress since the previous European stress test has been the hamonisation of the definition of non-performing loans and other concepts as well as uncovering hidden losses, which resulted in a €34 billion aggregate capital-chargenet of tax. Despite this tightening,most banks were able to meet the 5.5% common equity tier 1 (CET1) threshold applied in the test, whichsuggests that the large majority of the euro-area banks have improvedtheir financial position sufficiently to no longer constrainthem in financing the economy.Our own estimation based on the detailed results, however,provide a more nuanced picture, with a large numberof the banks still highly leveraged and in many cases unable to meet the regulatory capital requirementsthat will be introduced in the coming years underthe adverse stress test scenario.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Global Recession
Political Geography:
Europe

560. Russia's Punitive Trade Policy Measures towards Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia

Author:
Michael Emerson, Denis Cenusa, Tamara Kovziridse, and Veronika Movchan
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
While EU and US sanctions against Russia over its aggression in Ukraine, and Russia's counter-sanctions, are much discussed due to their evident political significance, less attention has been given to Russia's punitive sanctions against the three Eastern European states – Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia – that have signed with the EU Association Agreements (AA), which include Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) provisions. This paper therefore documents these trade policy restrictions and embargoes imposed by Russia, and provides some first indications of their impact. The immediate impact on trade flows, especially for agri-food products, has been substantial, albeit with some leakage through Belarus. The main instrument for the Russian measures has been allegations of non-conformity with Russian technical standards, although the correlation of these allegations with movements in Russia's geopolitical postures makes it obvious that the Russian technical agencies are following political guidelines dressed up as scientific evidence. These measures also push the three states into diversifying their trade marketing efforts in favour of the EU and other world markets, with Georgia already having taken significant steps in this direction, since in its case the Russian sanctions date back to 2006. In the case of Ukraine, Russia's threat to cancel CIS free trade preferences infiltrated trilateral talks between the EU, Ukraine and Russia, leading on 12 September to their proposed postponement until the end of 2015 of the 'provisional' implementation of a large part of the AA/DCFTA. This was immediately followed on 16 September by ratification of the AA/DCFTA by both the Rada in Kyiv and the European Parliament, which will lead to its full and definitive entry into force when the 28 EU member states have also ratified it. However Putin followed the day after with a letter to Poroshenko making an abusive interpretation of the 12 September understanding.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Power Politics, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia