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522. Trade policy issues in the Wider Europe – that led to war and not yet to peace
- Author:
- Michael Emerson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper looks at the trade policy landscape of the EU and the wider Europe, with a focus on issues arising from the signature on 27 June 2014 of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTAs) between the EU and three East European countries (Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine), and actual or prospective issues relating to the customs union of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan (BRK), and the Eurasian Economic Union whose founding treaty was signed on 29 May 2014. While the contrived collision between these projects has tragically induced Russia to break all the established international security norms by waging war against Ukraine, the present paper deals essentially with trade policy issues. The huge expansion of intercontinental free trade area negotiations currently underway, in which the EU is an active participant alongside much of the Americas and Asia, stands in contrast with Russia's choice to restrict itself to the Eurasian Economic Union, which is only a marginal extension of its own economy. Alone among the major economies in the world, Russia does not seek to integrate economically with any major economic bloc, which should be a matter of serious concern for Moscow. Within the wider Europe, the EU's DCFTAs with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia are a major new development, but Russia now threatens trade sanctions against Ukraine in particular, the economic case for which seems unfounded and whose unilateral application would also impair the customs union. The Belarus-Russia-Kazakhstan customs union itself poses several issues of compatibility with the rules of the WTO, which in turn are viewed by the EU as an impediment to discussing possible free trade scenarios with the customs union, although currently there are far more fundamental political impediments to any consideration of such ideas. Nonetheless this paper looks at various long-term scenarios, if only as a reminder that there could be much better alternatives to the present context of conflict around Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, America, Europe, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Asia, and Georgia
523. Flexibility clauses in the Stability and Growth Pact: No need for revision
- Author:
- Stefano Micossi and Fabrizia Peirce
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The policy debate about how best to restore growth in the flagging eurozone economy has been plagued by demands from some highly indebted member countries that the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) be loosened to leave greater room to support the economy with budgetary instruments. These demands have been met with an instant rebuff from the Commission and other financially solid members who argue that loosening the Pact would do little to restore sound growth. This question has also hindered the broader discussion on the need for and content of a renewed growth strategy for the eurozone and the European Union, no least by fuelling fresh mistrust among their member states.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Europe
524. Global Cybercrime: The Interplay of Politics and Law
- Author:
- Aaron Shull
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Examining global cybercrime as solely a legal issue misses an important facet of the problem. Understanding the applicable legal rules, both domestically and internationally, is important. However, major state actors are using concerted efforts to engage in nefarious cyber activities with the intention of advancing their economic and geostrategic interests. This attempt to advance a narrow set of economic interests through cybercrime and economic cyber espionage holds to the potential to erode the trust in the digital economy that has been a necessary condition for the success of the Internet as an economic engine for innovation and growth. By pursuing these efforts, states are prioritizing short-term interests over long-term stability and a responsibly governed, safe and secure Internet platform. This paper explores the recent unsealing of a 31-count indictment against five Chinese government officials and a significant cyber breach, perpetrated by Chinese actors against Western oil, energy and petrochemical companies. The paper concludes by noting that increased cooperation among governments is necessary, but unlikely to occur as long as the discourse surrounding cybercrime remains so heavily politicized and securitized. If governments coalesced around the notion of trying to prevent the long-term degradation of trust in the online economy, they may profitably advance the dialogue away from mutual suspicion and toward mutual cooperation.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Crime, International Trade and Finance, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
525. Power Shift and Renminbi Internationalization: Recommendations for the G20
- Author:
- Raluca Diana Ardelean and Mengun Zhang
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- China has gained substantial economic power in recent years, becoming the second-largest trading nation after the United States and the largest goods-trading nation since 2012 (Eichengreen 2014). It is also currently the largest source of savings and the largest potential source of capital for international investment (ibid.). Measured by GDP, China is now the second-largest economy in the world (see Figure 1), and the World Bank surmises it is likely to surpass the United States in 2014 (World Bank 2014). Because of China's growing economic importance, a shift in power is reasonably assumed. As its economic power grows, internationalization of the RMB has become a key policy goal for China, especially after the 2008 financial crisis (Zhang 2009; Park 2010; China Securities Regulatory Commission [CSRC] 2014). This goal demonstrates China's desire for better integration and representation in the international economic community and signals its willingness to perform internal financial reforms and take more responsibility in global economic affairs.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
526. The China-EU BIT: The emerging "Global BIT 2.0"?
- Author:
- Wenhua Shan and Lu Wang
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Since China and the European Union (EU) announced their decision to negotiate a bilateral investment treaty (BIT) at the 14th China-EU Summit in February 2012, the two sides have engaged in two rounds of negotiations. If successful, it will be the first standalone EU BIT, a BIT between the world's largest developed economy and the world's largest developing economy, and will occupy a unique place in the history of BIT negotiations.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
527. Chinese global investment growth pauses
- Author:
- Derek M. Scissors
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- Chinese foreign investment declined through mid-2014 for the first time since the financial crisis. By sector, energy draws the most investment, but a slump in energy spending means that metals and real estate have been more prominent so far in 2014. The United States has received the most Chinese investment since 2005, followed by Australia, Canada, and Brazil. China invests first in large, resource-rich nations but has also diversified by spending more than $200 billion elsewhere. Chinese investment benefits both China and the recipient nation, but host countries must consider thorny issues like Chinese cyberespionage and subsidies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Terrorism, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Canada, Asia, Brazil, and Australia
528. Morocco's Emergence as a Gateway to Business in Africa
- Author:
- J. Peter Pham and Ricardo Rene Laremont
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Africa is home to seven of the world's ten fastest-growing economies. By 2050, the continent's population is expected to overtake India's and China's, doubling to two billion people. Moreover, those two billion Africans will be younger than their counterparts in every other region of the world and will account for one in four workers globally by mid-century. Africa's rich endowment of natural resources, including about 30 percent of the world's known reserves of minerals and 60 percent of the planet's uncultivated arable land, is already well-known to investors.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, and Morocco
529. Trade policy issues in the Wider Europe - that led to war and not yet to peace
- Author:
- Michael Emerson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper looks at the trade policy landscape of the EU and the wider Europe, with a focus on issues arising from the signature on 27 June 2014 of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTAs) between the EU and three East European countries (Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine), and actual or prospective issues relating to the customs union of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan (BRK), and the Eurasian Economic Union whose founding treaty was signed on 29 May 2014. While the contrived collision between these projects has tragically induced Russia to break all the established international security norms by waging war against Ukraine , the present paper deals essentially with trade policy issues . The huge expansion of intercontinental free trade area negotiation s currently underway, in which the EU is an active participant alongside much of the Americas and Asia, stands in contrast with Russia's choice to restrict itself to the Eurasian Economic Union, which is only a marginal extension of its own economy. Alone among the major economies in the world, Russia does not seek to integrate economically with any major economic bloc, which should be a matter of serious concern for Moscow. Within the wider Europe, the EU's DCFTAs with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia are a major new development, but Russia now threatens trade sanctions against Ukraine in particular, the economic case for which seems unfounded and whose unilateral application would also impair the customs union. The Belarus-Russia-Kazakhstan customs union itself poses several issues of compatibility with the rules of the WTO, which in turn are viewed by the EU as an impediment to discussing possible free trade scenarios with the customs union, although currently there are far more fundamental political impediments to any consideration of such ideas. Nonetheless this paper looks at various long-term scenarios, if only as a reminder that there could be much better alternatives to the present context of conflict around Ukraine.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan
530. Transatlantic Economic Agreements: Parsing CETA and TTIP
- Author:
- Patricia M. Goff
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- In October 2013, Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced that the Government of Canada had reached a "political agreement" with the European Union on the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). The timing of Mr. Harper's statement was not coincidental. Evidence suggests that talks between Canada and the European Union are actually continuing several months after his announcement, if only on technical elements. Nonetheless, it seems the Government of Canada wanted to signal that a successful end to Canada-EU talks was in sight, just as talks between the United States and the European Union were getting under way towards the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The Canadian government did not want to risk a redirection of European energies away from the Canadian negotiation toward their American counterparts.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Canada