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Begin New Search Topic International Trade and Finance Publication Year within 25 Years

1841. The Opposite of Stagflation

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The blissful combination of higher growth and lower inflation that has characterized the U.S. economy since last spring is the inverse of stagflation, the nightmare scenario that followed the oil shock of 1973–74, when higher oil prices produced lower output, lower growth, and higher inflation. The current cycle is fundamentally benign—more output at lower prices—but if policymakers fail to recognize it as such and ignore falling prices because output growth is strong, a global recession could occur.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

1842. As Good As It Gets

Author:
John H. Makin
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Old habits die hard. Often, criticism leveled at policymakers is well founded. I certainly have offered up my share. But as 2003 ends and 2004 begins, we find ourselves at a point where the performance of the U.S. economy is about as good as it gets. The stock market is up 20 percent this year, inflation and interest rates are low, productivity growth is high, and U.S. exports are rising strongly. The biggest danger going forward arises from ill-founded criticism aimed at policy measures employed to achieve this excellent outcome and the (fortunately low) chance that policymakers will heed such criticism.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

1843. A Contract Perspective on the International Finance Facility

Author:
George Mavrotas and Tun Lin
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The present paper is a first attempt to develop a theoretical model using a short-term vis-á-vis long-term contract framework within which donor countries' endorsement or rejection decision towards the recently proposed International Finance Facility (IFF) is rationalized. The current foreign aid system is portrayed as being similar to a series of short-term contracts, where donor countries are able to adjust the aid amount to reflect environmental change (broadly defined to take into account changes in public opinion, domestic situation, etc.). The benefit of this system is in its flexibility. Frontloading aid, on the other hand, as proposed by the IFF proposal, has the benefit of smoothing out the flows over time. In the model presented in this paper, donor countries balance these two contract schemes to determine the endorsement or rejection of the IFF proposal. By using historical aid data covering the period 1990-2003 for all DAC donor countries, our empirical analysis shows the payoffs and relative advantages of these two contract schemes.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance

1844. Output and Price Fluctuations in China's Reform Years: What Role did Money Play?

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The Chinese economy underwent cyclical fluctuations in growth and inflation in the reform period. Contrasting views exist on the role of money in such fluctuations. This paper assesses these views employing structural VEC models based on the exchange equation. It is found that in the long run money accommodates, rather than causes, changes in output and prices. In the short run, price fluctuations are mostly attributable to shocks that have permanent effects on prices and money but not on real output. These shocks also account for a large proportion of fluctuations in money, and strongly influence the movements of output.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1845. What Accounts for China's Trade Balance Dynamics?

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Roldós (2001) and Prasad (1999). The model is then used to analyse the sources of China's trade balance fluctuations in the period of 1985–2000. Efforts are made to distinguish the forces which underlie the long-run trend in trade balance from those with transitory impacts. The effects of four types of shock are examined—the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock, and the nominal shock. Among other findings, two emerge as important. First, the movements in China's trade are largely the result of real shocks. Second, the Renminbi is undervalued, yet changes in the exchange rate bear little on the trade balance. Therefore, monetary measures would not suffice to redress China's trade 'imbalance'.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1846. Multiactor Global Funds: New Tools to Address Urgent Global Problems

Author:
Jeremy Heimans
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Multiactor global funds (MGFs) are emerging as important new mechanisms for the financing of development and other global priorities. MGFs like the Global Fund for AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria are distinctive because they are administered and financed by multiactor coalitions of governments, international organizations, the private sector and civil society, they operate independently of any one institution and are tied to particular issue or policy areas. This paper considers the desirability of MGFs as instruments for international financial mobilization, resource allocation and as a form of experimentation in global governance. It is argued that MGFs hold considerable promise as focal points for generating additional public and private resources to address urgent global problems and to finance global public goods. They may be more operationally nimble than traditional mechanisms and capture some of the benefits of collaboration among different actors. However, MGFs may also result in a less coherent response to global problems, duplicate existing structures and be weakly democratically accountable.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Non-Governmental Organization

1847. The Transition from Official Aid to Private Capital Flows: Implications for a Developing Country

Author:
Renu Kohli
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
India's capital account displays a sharp swing in external financing from official assistance to private capital transfers in the 1990s. This paper examines the implications of this transition for the country. An analysis of the private resource transfer reveals that unlike official flows, private capital flows are associated with real exchange rate appreciation, expansion in domestic money supply and stock market growth, liquidity and volatility. The paper concludes with a discussion on the implications of the transition for economic policy.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

1848. The Characteristics of Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone

Author:
David Fielding, Kevin Lee, and Kalvinder Shields
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper we fit a VECM in output and prices to data from ten countries of the CFA Franc Zone. This model allows for various cross-country interactions in both the short run and the long run. The VECM parameters are used to estimate persistence profiles of different kinds, in order to identify the degree of homogeneity in the way in which the countries respond to macroeconomic shocks. In this way we can shed light on questions about the likely size of the costs incurred from these countries' membership of a monetary union.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa

1849. Monetary Policy in the Franc Zone: Estimating Interest Rate Rules for the BCEAO

Author:
Anja Shortland and David Stasavage
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines to what extent the central bank for the West African Economic and Monetary Union (BCEAO) has used interest rate policy in response to domestic economic developments. We show that while in the long run the BCEAO matches changes in French (Eurozone) interest rates one for one, in the short run it retains freedom to react to domestic economic variables, such as inflation, the output gap, its foreign exchange position and government borrowing.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, France, and West Africa

1850. Poverty and Growth in the WAEMU after the 1994 Devaluation

Author:
Jean-Paul Azam
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper brings out that poverty increased massively in the wake of the 1994 devaluation of the CFA franc, despite a significant recovery of economic growth. Although this increase affected all the social groups, it fell mostly on the urban poor. An analytical model is presented, which explains this puzzle by the stratification of the labour market, assuming that the formal sector workers are at the same time the investors in the informal sector. Then, capital intensity in the latter increases as the former anticipate the cut in formal sector wages that the long-awaited devaluation brings about. Ex post, they run down their assets for consumption-smoothing purposes, thus de-capitalizing the informal sector firms, with a negative impact on incomes in the (urban) informal sector.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa