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1751. Making Doha a Developmental Round: What do the Developing Countries Want?

Author:
William Krist
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
This report was prepared by William Krist, a Senior Policy Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Project (ECSP). Mr. Krist is working on issues relating to trade and sustainable development. Before becoming a Woodrow Wilson scholar, Mr. Krist was senior vice president at the American Electronics Association, and prior to that, he had been Assistant Trade Representative for Industry in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. He has an MA in economics from George Washington University, and a BA from Swarthmore College.The Environmental Change and Security Project (ECSP) has been committed to exploration of the connections between environment, population and security since 1994. Through its meetings, its publications, its comprehensive Web site, and the original research carried out by its staff and scholars, ECSP serves as an information clearinghouse. ECSP is directed by Geoffrey D. Dabelko and is housed in the Wilson Center's Division of International Studies, headed by Robert S. Litwak.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
Political Geography:
United States

1752. Does Lootable Wealth Breed Disorder? A Political Economy of Extraction Framework

Author:
Richard Snyder
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This article proposes a political economy of extraction framework that accounts for political order and state collapse as alternative outcomes in the face of lootable wealth. Different types of institutions of extraction can be built around lootable resources—with divergent effects on political stability. If rulers are able to forge institutions of extraction that give them control over the revenues generated by lootable resources, then these resources can contribute to the maintenance of political order by providing the income with which to govern. In contrast, the breakdown or absence of such institutions increases the risk of civil war by making it easier for rebels to get income. The framework is used to explain two puzzling cases that experienced sharply contrasting political trajectories in the face of lootable resources: Sierra Leone and Burma. A focus on institutions of extraction provides a stronger understanding of the wide range of political possibilities—from chaos, through dictatorship, to democracy—in resource-rich countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Burma and Sierra Leone

1753. On the Role of Distance for Outward Foreign Direct Investment

Author:
Peter Egger
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper focuses on the estimation of three distance-related effects on outward foreign direct investment (FDI). (i) Distance harms vertical multinationals, since they engage in trade. (ii) It makes non-trading multinationals better off than exporters. (iii) This positive effect on horizontal FDI is expected to rise with bilateral country size due to the home market effect. The use of panel data and related econometric methods is highly recommended to avoid parameter bias from endogenous, unobserved, time-invariant effects. A unified estimation approach to assess all three hypotheses then has to rely on instrumental variable techniques for generalized leastsquares methods. In the empirical analysis of 1989–1999 bilateral US outward FDI stocks at the industry level, it is shown that testing and accounting for autocorrelation is extremely important for parameter inference. In sum, the paper lends strong support to the theory of horizontally organized multinationals as outlined in Markusen and Venables (2000).
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

1754. Political Finance Regulation in Guatemala: A Comparative Survey

Author:
Kevin Casas-Zamora
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
As in most Latin American countries, the funding of political activities has only recently become a matter of serious concern in Guatemala. Long known for its chronic political instability, the country has limited experience in the observance of basic democratic practices such as regular and reasonably free and fair elections. Even today, the regulation of political finance remains under the shadow of other pressing and as yet unresolved political issues such as the extraordinary weakness of parties, the consistently high abstention rates and the practical disenfranchisement of the indigenous majority.
Topic:
International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Guatemala

1755. The European Union Code of Conduct on Arms Exports: Improving the Annual Report

Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The 1998 European Union Code of Conduct on Arms Exports is a political agreement designed to set common standards across the EU for the export of military equipment. Under its provisions, all EU member states have agreed to apply a standard set of criteria to assess applications for licences for the export of military equipment. Member states have also agreed to share information, and in certain cases consult in advance, on their arms export licensing decisions. One of the main tools for assessing how states interpret and apply the EU Code of Conduct is the Annual Report according to Operative Provision 8 of the European Union Code of Conduct on Arms Exports, which has been published in the autumn of each year since 1999. The aim of the Annual Report is to enable member governments, parliaments and civil society to understand how the EU Code is being interpreted at the national level by each EU member state. The report describes how the EU Code has been implemented, discusses future measures to improve implementation and provides statistical data for the previous calendar year on licences granted for the export of military equipment, actual arms exports and denials of export licences.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, and Terrorism

1756. Export Credits and the Environment

Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Official export credit agencies (ECAs) support exports, much of which support goes to emerging economies, by providing loan guarantees, export credit insurance and direct loans. In 2002, the amount of business covered by such support was approximately USD 50 billion. Typically, officially supported export credits are provided to enable recipient countries to fund major capital goods and projects exported by the home country of the ECA, such as roads, mining, railways or airports.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance

1757. Economic Survey of the Czech Republic, 2004

Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Following accession to the European Union the big issue for the Czech Republic is to strengthen growth prospects. Growth potential at present is somewhat above 3 per cent, implying a moderate pace of catch-up to living standards in the EU and elsewhere. There is room for greater ambition in growth performance, and it is welcome to see this reflected in the programme of the new Czech government. This Survey underscores four main challenges. Fiscal consolidation is the dominant challenge for macroeconomic policy, and is not only necessary to cope with ageing and to bring down the tax burden but is also needed to fulfil euro-area entry conditions. A welcome programme of fiscal reform has begun, including proposals for a system of multi-year aggregate spending ceilings and significant expenditure cuts. However, to date, mainly revenue-raising measures have been implemented while the full impact of expenditure measures is yet to be realised. The attempt to secure broad political consensus on pension reform is commendable, but it must be underscored that whatever reform is finally implemented, it will have to bring considerable fiscal savings. Health-care reform also has to deliver savings, but concrete proposals have yet to be made. To facilitate assessment of the true fiscal position, extra-budgetary funds need to be more fully integrated in mainstream government budgeting procedures. Also, with the further decentralisation of public services, the need for good budgeting practices and accountability in regional and municipal governments is all the more important. The Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance have formulated a transparent strategy for entering the euro area, that foresees minimising the time spent in ERM II. Annual reports will assess the economic conditions in relation to the Maastricht Criteria and a request to enter ERM II will only being made if the probability of a positive first assessment by the EU authorities is high. The choice of a 3 per cent inflation target for the run-up to euro entry is justifiable on medium-term grounds. However there may be some difficulty communicating the consistency of this target with the Maastricht criterion for price stability. The Czech authorities should therefore pay close attention to how the Maastricht criteria are interpreted and applied by the European Commission and the ECB and adjust their communication strategy accordingly. Most of the catch-up in living standards will have to come from boosting productivity growth. This means swifter re-allocation of resources across firms as well as stronger in-firm productivity growth. While the Czech Republic is a strong competitor for attracting foreign direct investment, policy towards poorly performing firms and business start-ups has problems, slowing down the exit and entry of firms. Bankruptcy procedures are cumbersome, often long and usually end up in liquidation, with asset stripping not uncommon. Reforms have long-since been planned, and it is welcome that new legislation looks finally set to go ahead. The legislation aims at strengthening the role of creditors, speeding up proceedings and allowing composition to play a bigger role. Likewise, efforts to streamline business registration are welcome and should be implemented as soon as possible. The general business climate is also damaged by issues in network industry competition, as some services, notably internet, are expensive in international comparison. Mobility between jobs and regions is weak. Administrative extensions of collective wage agreements, strict employment protection legislation (EPL) on individual dismissals, rent control, severe poverty traps (particularly for families) and a high tax wedge have contributed to considerable long-term unemployment. The Roma population is hit especially hard in this respect. Migration is to some extent mitigating the labour-market rigidities with Slovaks filling skilled vacancies and other eastern Europeans (mainly Ukrainians) taking up unskilled jobs that are unattractive for locals. Tackling the unemployment problem requires measures across a wide front, but most notably social benefit reform is needed along with reduction in the tax wedge as well as easing of EPL. The widespread social and economic exclusion of the Roma needs more attention, particularly in the education system. A more open immigration policy is needed to address immediate issues such as the inconsistency between granting work permits as well as for better alignment of immigrants' skills with those needed on the Czech labour market.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Czech Republic

1758. OECD Territorial Reviews: Mexico City

Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Mexico City's spectacular growth into one of the world's largest metropolitan regions is giving way to new development dynamics. The Metropolitan Area of Mexico City (MAMC), with a population of approximately 18.4 million people, is undergoing two main transitions: first, from high population growth to relative demographic stability and spatial redistribution, and second, from a declining manufacturing economy focused on national markets to one based on services competing internationally.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

1759. Economic Survey of Canada, 2004

Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Economic performance has been solid, and macroeconomic policies are appropriate. The economy is expected to expand by close to 3.5 per cent in 2005, and the output gap will soon be closed. Monetary stimulus should gradually be removed and the fiscal policy stance needs to remain neutral. The Canadian dollar appreciated sharply in 2003 and is now probably not far from its fundamental value. Canadian firms will need to continue to adjust by making efforts to improve productivity to maintain competitiveness. Policy makers should remain focussed on policies that enhance productivity growth across all sectors. With a sound macroeconomic framework and structural policies that are mostly conducive to a well functioning economy, the country is well placed to meet the challenges of an ageing population, namely, maintaining rises in living standards through strong rates of productivity growth and policies to attenuate the expected fall in hours worked on average across the whole population, and ensuring that public finances are sustainable, especially given pressures on health care outlays.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

1760. Economic Survey of Turkey, 2004

Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Turkey is at a crossroads. After hitting the most severe crisis of its recent history in 2000-2001, the economy bounced back and is now among the fastest growing economies in the OECD. A new institutional framework for monetary and fiscal policies as well as for product, labour and financial markets, infrastructure industries, and agricultural support opened a window of opportunity to escape from the three traps of low confidence, weak governance and high informality which underpinned the boom and bust cycle of the past and to embark durably on a higher growth path. Success will depend on fully implementing and completing the new policy framework.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Eastern Europe