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Begin New Search Topic International Trade and Finance Publication Year within 25 Years

1701. Tradable Services: Understanding the Scope and Impact of Services Offshoring

Author:
Lori G. Kletzer and J. Bradford Jensen
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
We develop a new empirical approach to identify tradable service activities. Contrary to conventional views of service activities as nontradable, we find a significant number of service industries and occupations that appear tradable and substantial employment in these tradable activities. Workers employed in tradable service activities differ from those employed in tradable manufacturing and nontradable services. Workers in tradable service activities have higher skill levels and are paid higher wages than manufacturing workers or workers in nontradable service activities. In general, we find little evidence that tradable service activities have lower employment growth than other service activities. However, evidence suggests lower employment growth at the lowest end of the skill distribution. There is also evidence of higher worker displacement rates in tradable services. Workers displaced from tradable service activities are different from displaced manufacturing workers: Displaced tradable service workers have higher skills and higher predisplacement earnings than displaced manufacturing workers.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance

1702. Egypt after the Multi-Fiber Arrangement: Global Apparel and Textile Supply Chains as a Route for Industrial Upgrading

Author:
Dan Magder and Dan Magder
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Exporting through international supply chains was a successful way for East Asian countries to develop their textile and apparel industries in the 1970s and 1980s, but it is a less clear route for countries like Egypt trying to compete today. The challenge is particularly acute given the strength of competitors like China, and even more so in the post-MFA era. Some analysts suggest that "lean retailing" increases the importance of geography in exporting in the world of rapidly changing apparel fashion, in a way that could benefit a country like Egypt with its proximity to European end markets. Using a supply chain model, this paper suggests that shortening lead times can indeed have an impact on profits, but that the effect is not tremendous, being in the range of a 0.3 percent to 0.9 percent increase in profits for every week of improvement in lead times. The study also finds that the business environment in Egypt lags key comparator countries in several areas that help the firms compete in global apparel chains, although recent reforms by the Egyptian government are working to address several of these aspects. It concludes by exploring to what extent geography, trade preferences, and local production factors may help Egypt's textile and apparel industry carve out a role for itself in global supply chains, and provide an engine to drive industrial upgrading throughout the country.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe, East Asia, North Africa, and Egypt

1703. What Might the Next Emerging-Market Financial Crisis Look Like?

Author:
Morris Goldstein and Anna Wong
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper addresses the following question: If a financial crisis affecting a group of emerging economies were to take place sometime over the next three years, where would the crisis likely originate, how could it be transmitted to other economies, and which economies would be most affected by particular transmission or contagion mechanisms? A set of indicators is presented to gauge the vulnerability of individual emerging economies to various shocks, including a slowdown in import demand in both China and the United States, a fall in primary commodity prices, increased costs and lower availability of external financing, alternative patterns of exchange rate changes, and pressures operating on monetary and fiscal policies in emerging economies.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and China

1704. Affinity and International Trade

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of American public attitudes toward foreign countries on the volume of trade. The issue is whether popular attitudes, as elicited in these surveys, convey any information about trust, risk, or transactions costs beyond what can be explained through standard economic models. The results of this paper suggest that they do, with a one standard deviation increase in warmth of feeling associated with a 20 to 31 percent larger trade volume when evaluated at the sample means. These public attitudes are in turn correlated with indices of cultural affinity and political ideology. A one standard deviation increase in the democracy score is associated with a 5 to 7 percent increase in trade. There might be additional secondary effects if democratization was associated with an increased likelihood of the removal of sanctions or the initiation of preferential trade relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

1705. The Payoff from Globalization

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Paul L. E. Grieco
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The battle over the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) promises a reprise of familiar themes. While contemporary commentators may connect their arguments to NAFTA, in fact the "modern" debate over trade barriers can be traced back to British Corn Laws. Enacted to protect land barons, the Corn Laws were finally repealed in 1846 to make way for what Martin Wolf has called the "first age of globalization."
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Central America

1706. Swiss National Bank Sales—Lessons and Experiences

Author:
Philipp M. Hildebrand
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
I am pleased to be in Washington today and would like to thank Fred Bergsten and his colleagues at the Institute for International Economics for providing me with this opportunity to talk about the recently completed gold sales of the Swiss National Bank (SNB).
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Washington

1707. Domestic and External Debt: The Doomed Quest for Equal Treatment

Author:
Brad Setser and Anna Gelpern
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
"Equality" has the ring of a basic value, an incontrovertible virtue. In international finance, equal treatment is enshrined in treaties and contracts. Of all the equal treatment aspirations in finance, none seems more essential to a lawyer than equal treatment of creditors holding identical legal instruments: if one is to suffer a default, surely so should the others; restructuring options available to one must be open to all without regard to the creditor's identity. Yet in the world of sovereign debt, local and foreign investors buying the same paper rarely achieve what anyone would recognize as equal treatment.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance

1708. The Euro and the World Economy

Author:
Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The dollar has been the dominant currency of the world economy for almost a century for a single overwhelming reason: It had no competition. No other economy came close to the size of the United States. Hence no currency could acquire the network externalities, economies of scale and scope, and public goods benefits necessary to rival the dollar at the global level. A similar situation for the United Kingdom explains sterling's dominance in the 19th century.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

1709. The US Economic Outlook

Author:
Martin Neil Baily and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Oil prices have risen and are expected to remain high. Slow job and wage growth result in slow income growth. Low interest rates kept housing and auto sales strong after 2000 – borrowing future growth. No new stimulus from monetary or fiscal policy. The Iraq war and the terrorism threat may be a drag on confidence. Because 9/11 did not have significant macroeconomic effects, the impact of the war and terrorism seems to be mostly on oil prices No new stimulus from monetary or fiscal policy.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

1710. The Chinese Economy: Prospects and Key Policy Issues

Author:
Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia