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1442. Can America Still Lead in the Global Economy?
- Author:
- Lael Brainard and David Lipton
- Publication Date:
- 08-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- From the vantage point of 2008, some of the most memorable initiatives of U.S. international economic leadership—the Paris and Louvre Accords, the support for Poland and Russia after the fall of communism, the Uruguay Round, and the Mexican Financing Loan—seem like quaint reminders of a simpler time. In the coming years, the exercise of international economic leadership will surely prove more complex than in the past. The very success of the American vision of a global spread of vibrant and competitive markets has created a huge, rapidly integrating private economy of trade and finance much less amenable to guidance, let alone control, by governments. Unlike in diplomacy and defense, where non state actors are growing in importance but still a side show, in inter- national economics, households, corporations, labor unions, and non-profits are now the dominant players in most parts of the world. While they respond to national laws and policies, their interests are varied and their operations often span borders.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Paris, Poland, Uruguay, and Mexico
1443. Can Trade Policy Support the Next Global Climate Agreement?
- Author:
- Margaret Lay
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The global trade and environment regimes have a rich history of conflicts and synergies that holds important lessons for current initiatives to develop and implement effective national and global climate policy. This paper explores the relationship between the trade and environment regimes and asks how climate negotiators can harness the powerful incentives of international trade to support the next global climate regime.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
1444. The Trade and Climate Change, Joint Agenda
- Author:
- Thomas L Brewer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- Climate change, international trade, investment and technology transfer are all issues that have intersected in diverse institutional contexts and at several levels of governmental activity to form a new joint agenda. The purpose of this paper is to advance understanding of this joint agenda by identifying the specific issues that have emerged, the policies that have been adopted, especially in the EU and US, and the options that are available for further policy-making.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
1445. Stock Prices and Monetary Policy
- Author:
- Paul De Grauwe
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- The question of whether central banks should target stock prices so as to prevent bubbles and crashes from occurring has been hotly debated. We analyse this question using a behavioural macroeconomic model. This model generates bubbles and crashes. We analyse how 'leaning against the wind' strategies, which aim to reduce the volatility of stock prices, can help in reducing volatility of output and inflation. We find that such policies can be effective in reducing macroeconomic volatility, thereby improving the trade- off between output and inflation variability. The strength of this result, however, depends on the degree of credibility of the inflation-targeting regime. In the absence of such credibility, policies aiming at stabilising stock prices do not stabilise output and inflation.
- Topic:
- Economics, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
1446. Distance Isn't Quite Dead: Recent Trade Patterns and Modes of Supply in Computer and Information Services in the United States and NAFTA Partners
- Author:
- Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper evaluates the statistical strengths and weaknesses of available data on US computer and information services trade and estimates the scope of delivery through GATS modes 1, 3, and 4. Trade values are estimated using a new methodology that adheres, to the greatest extent possible, to the definitions of modes of supply in the 2002 Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services. This paper finds that US trade (particularly exports) in computer and information services are overwhelmingly and increasingly delivered through mode 3. The United States is found to have experienced declining overall revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in traditional mode 1 cross-border computer and information services trade from 1986 to 2006, while having a stable, positive RCA in mode-3 trade. A new methodology for tentatively estimating US imports of computer and information services in GATS mode 4 suggests that the IT services sector dominates US mode-4 imports, and that these are several times larger than US traditional mode-1, cross-border imports of computer and information services.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
1447. Rules of Origin and the European Union's Preferential Trade Agreements, with Special Reference to the EU-ACP Economic Partnership Agreements
- Author:
- Peter Gibbon
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Economic opinion is in the process of re-interpreting low levels of uptake of non-reciprocal preferential trade agreements (PTAs) partly in terms of administrative barriers to preference utilization. Primary amongst these barriers are Rules of Origin. This paper reviews the literature on Rules of Origin as administrative barriers to the utilization of preferences accorded to African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries under the Coutonou Agreement, before going on to ex-amine current revisions of EU PTA Rules of Origin. These are embodied in a new (so-called 'Cotonou+') set of rules for the interim EU-ACP Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) and a second proposed set of rules for the EU's Generalised System of Preference (GSP) arrangements, including Everything But Arms. The Cotonou+ rules include some important concessions by the EU, especially for those ACP countries that do not have Least Developed Country (LDC) status, but are supposed to be re-negotiated within a fixed period in line the new EU GSP rules. However, the new GSP rules as revealed in the EU Draft Regulation of 2007 contain no real concessions for non-LDCs, and they introduce potentially trade-restrictive administrative requirements. These rules are currently (July 2008) under reconsideration by the EU, but it is clear that this exercise does not cover these elements. For this reason, harmonisation of the Cotonou+ and new GSP rules may be a source a serious discord in the negotiation of full EPAs, a process which is supposed to occur during 2008.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Caribbean
1448. Superclass: The Global Power Elite and the World They Are Making
- Author:
- Saskia Sassen, David Rothkopf, Robert Hormats, Merit Janow, Luis Alberto Moreno, and Alan Murray
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Columbia University World Leaders Forum
- Abstract:
- President Lee C. Bollinger hosts a panel discussion with Columbia University's distinguished alumnus, David Rothkopf (Columbia College '77), on the topic of his provocative new book, Superclass: The Global Power Elite and the World They Are Making.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and International Affairs
1449. Strategic Advantage: Challengers, Competitors, and Threats to America's Future
- Author:
- Bruce Berkowitz
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Book
- Institution:
- Georgetown University Press
- Abstract:
- This Book is intended to help readers better understand the national security issues facing the United States today and offer the general outline of a strategy for dealing with them. National security policy—both making it and debating it—is harder today because the issues that are involved are more numerous and varied. The problem of the day can change at a moment's notice. Yesterday, it might have been proliferation; today, terrorism; tomorrow, hostile regional powers. Threats are also more likely to be intertwined—proliferators use the same networks as narco-traffickers, narco-traffickers support terrorists, and terrorists align themselves with regional powers.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States
1450. The End of Monetary Dominance? How Crises Can Influence Monetary Policy Decisions and Institutions
- Author:
- Pierre L. Siklos
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Has the global financial crisis made monetary policy more powerful, or it has exposed its limitations? For the most part, the answer is the former, at least today, but the outlook may not be so rosy. When the former British Prime Minister, Harold Macmillan, was asked what were the greatest challenges he faced, he replied: “Events, my dear boy, events.” We have certainly witnessed in the last year a series of events that are challenging policy makers as well as their beliefs about how monetary policy ought to be conducted in future. Indeed, these same events may come to haunt the monetary authorities, and we may well see a return to a period when monetary policy was subservient to a fiscal policy that steps in, ostensibly to impose order on an apparently unruly private sector. Central banks, among other players, appear to have unwittingly put in place the conditions necessary for what we can now confidently call the perfect storm of 2008. There were several observers who predicted that a train wreck was looming on the horizon. Indeed, perhaps most stunning of all, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), created from the ashes of World War I and which quickly became the forum for central bank cooperation, a role it continues to fill to this day, had repeatedly warned about the troubles that lay ahead. “…these facts also suggest that the magnitude of the problems yet to be faced could be much greater than many now perceive” (BIS Annual Report, 2008: 9). The failure of central banks to act on these warnings may come back to haunt them in the near future.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Britain