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171. Big Data Is Changing Your World... More Than You Know

Author:
Banning Garrett
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
“This is some of the best driving I've ever done,” Steve Mahan joked at the end of a ride in the Google self-driving car. Mahan's 2012 drive—to buy tacos for lunch and pick up his laundry—was especially remarkable since he is 95 percent blind. His hands-free test drive (accompanied by Morgan Hill Police Department Sergeant Troy Hoefling and recorded in a YouTube video) would have been impossible not only without advanced sensors, computers, and software, but also without big data, which both enabled development of the driverless car and inform its movement along the streets and freeways of California. The Google car itself gathers nearly 1 gigabyte of data per second as it scans and analyzes its environment. Think of the potential data gathering of 100 million self-driving cars on the roads of the United States. How will that data—100 million gigabytes per second—be transmitted, stored, and analyzed?
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, Intelligence, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and California

172. Military, Police and Intelligence in Turkey: Recent Transformations and Needs for Reform

Author:
Biriz Berksoy
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
“Military, Police and Intelligence in Turkey” is the fourth report of TESEV’s Security Sector and Democratic Oversight series and was authored by Istanbul University Professor Biriz Berksoy. The report puts forward persisting problems regarding accountability and civilian democratic oversight of the security institutions in Turkey; discusses the implications of these problems in light of recent developments, particularly regarding human rights violations; and highlights a series of legal, institutional and strategic reforms that should be undertaken to address the existing problems in this field.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, Intelligence, Military Affairs, Reform, Democracy, and Police
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

173. Half Lives: A Preliminary Assessment of China’s Nuclear Warhead Life Extension and Safety Program

Author:
Ian Easton and Mark Stokes
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Nuclear warheads and their associated delivery vehicles (ballistic and cruise missiles) represent the most powerful and potentially destabilizing weapons in the world today. While rapid advances in information and communications technology have endowed conventional weapons systems with the “intelligence” and precision to take on a greater number of strategic missions–for example targeting aircraft carrier groups and critical command nodes–nuclear weapons remain the sine qua non of deterrence. Indeed, while every nation’s leadership fears war to some degree, the threat of war is only truly horrific for a leader who faces an enemy armed with nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, Communications, Weapons, and Political stability
Political Geography:
China and Asia

174. Shutting the Backdoor: The Perils of National Security and Digital Surveillance Programs

Author:
Ronald J. Deibert
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
As governments have sought to monitor digital communications for security purposes, the “backdoor” paradigm has become the predominant approach. Strictly speaking, backdoors refer to special methods of bypassing normal authentication procedures to secretly access computing systems. But here the concept is used in a broader sense to describe a range of policies and practices whereby governments compel, or otherwise get the cooperation of, private sector companies to provide access to data they control. The backdoor paradigm is not only a concern for political reasons, particularly for civil liberties, it is also bad for digital security and foreign policy. Law enforcement and intelligence agencies should instead seek to work within the information-rich world of Big Data that surrounds us with any access to private communications made exceptional and strictly controlled by lawful procedures and oversight mechanisms.
Topic:
Intelligence, National Security, Cybersecurity, Surveillance, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

175. Drones in Our World, Part III: Non-Kinetic Solutions

Author:
Whitney Grespin
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Drone strikes on militants capture the negative headlines, but increasingly UAVs are winning fans amongst war fighters and civilians by other means. From providing eyes in the sky to taking on high-risk life support missions, the use of unmanned platforms is growing with no slowdown in sight. There are five fronts where UAVs are supporting the troops in ways that exploit their capabilities beyond offensive missions: surveillance/reconnaissance, intelligence, logistics, chronological reach back, and perhaps most surprisingly, community engagement. While context specific intelligence analysis is inseparable from its acquisition via surveillance and reconnaissance missions, it is separable for the purpose of this discussion about UAVs and how they are challenging traditional practices. UAVs can be both tactical and strategic assets – they are not only informing today’s missions, and they do not solely provide data that informs theater level decision making. These systems are achieving both tactical and strategic objectives, and they are sometimes doing so with the same machine in the same mission.
Topic:
Intelligence, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Drones
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

176. "Does Decapitation Work? Assessing the Effectiveness of Leadership Targeting in Counterinsurgency Campaigns"

Author:
Patrick Johnston
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Targeting of militant leaders is central to many states' national security strategies, but does it work? What should policymakers expect when armed forces capture or kill militant leaders? Is leadership decapitation more likely to succeed or fail under certain conditions? These questions have never been more pressing than after the May 2011 killing of al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden. As relevant as these questions are to current U.S. policy and strategy, they are also fundamental questions of asymmetric warfare. They matter because almost all policies of "high-value" targeting require difficult judgments concerning both the potential consequences and the opportunity costs of targeting militant leaders. The decision to target enemy leaders requires that policymakers adjudicate among numerous difficult, and potentially contradictory, choices. Leadership targeting strategies affect how states allocate scarce military, intelligence, and economic resources; how they construct their counterinsurgency or counterterrorism postures; and how interested foreign and domestic audiences react to their behavior.
Topic:
Economics and Intelligence
Political Geography:
United States

177. Role of Intelligence in International Crisis Management

Author:
Kwa Chong Guan
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This Working Paper reviews conventional thinking about the contribution of strategic intelligence to early warning of diplomatic crisis and its escalation and resolution. The paper argues that in an increasingly complex and interdependent world driven by forces of globalization strategic intelligence may not be able to provide policy makers the foresight of crisis and its possible outcomes.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Globalization, and Intelligence

178. Selections from the Press

Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Palestine Studies
Institution:
Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:
This section includes articles and news items, mainly from Israeli but also from international press sources, that provide insightful or illuminating perspectives on events, developments, or trends in Israel and the occupied territories not readily available in the mainstream U.S. media.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Intelligence, and Islam
Political Geography:
United States and Ireland

179. The Geopolitics of Satellite Vision and North Korea

Author:
David Shim
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Satellite imagery plays an important role in contemporary geopolitics. Arguably the most well‐known example is Colin Powell's (in)famous presentation to the UN Security Council in February 2003, during which he used satellite pictures to legitimate the invasion of Iraq. Satellite photographs draw on a techno‐scientific discourse that enables them to function as undistorted records impartially documenting space and place. As a result, they assume a defining authority to “speak the truth” – which is probably enhanced with regard to (allegedly) unknown and mysterious sites like North Korea. Since satellites are deployed to reveal what should be invisible, their ability to detect and expose, or “see from above,” implies a particular power. However, satellite photographs are not necessarily objective reflections of a geographical surface but, like all visual representations, underlie what will be called a logic of inclusion and exclusion that makes them deeply political. Taking North Korea as an example, the article argues for the need to develop a sensitized understanding concerning the use and function of satellite images as they often come to have international political implications. Referring to the linkages between seeing, knowing and acting, the article examines the role of remote sensing as a way of knowing and inquires as to the immediacy of images and the ensuing imperative to respond to them.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
North Korea

180. Escaping from American intelligence: culture, ethnocentrism and the Anglosphere

Author:
Richard J. Aldrich and John Kasuku
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
American intelligence continues to privilege strategic analysis for policy-makers. The core of the American intelligence system remains the National Intelligence Estimate process, the legacy of Sherman Kent, the 'Founding Father' of the analytical profession. In support of this process, vast technical resources are deployed in collecting secret material that is not available from open sources or from diplomatic reporting, and then subjecting it to elaborate analysis. The priority accorded to this activity is symbolized by the veneration of the President's Daily Brief, a top-level intelligence summary that is described by Bob Woodward as 'the most restricted document in Washington', and by the White House itself as 'the most highly sensitized classified document in the government'. George Tenet, one of the longest-serving directors of Central Intelligence, has insisted that President's Daily Briefs from his period of office were so important that none would ever be declassified and released for public inspection.
Topic:
Intelligence
Political Geography:
America and Washington