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202. Obama's War: Prospects for the Conflict in Afghanistan and Pakistan
- Author:
- Bruce Riedel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- On coming into office, President Barak Obama immediately assembled a team to assess the US situation in Afghanistan and formulate a strategy for the mission. Heading up this team was Bruce Riedel, a former adviser to Presidents Clinton and Bush and a former CIA officer. This paper, based on a CIGI Signature Lecture given by Mr. Riedel in April 2010, discusses the history of the US war on terror since 9/11, specifically the actors involved in initiating the al-Qaeda declaration of war on the US and its allies, and the recent terrorist plots and attacks linked to al-Qaeda, which demonstrate that al-Qaeda and its allies continue to mount terrorist attacks despite the efforts of the US to thwart terrorism.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, War, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States
203. The Method behind the Mark: A Review of Firearm Marking Technologies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Record-keeping is an essential prerequisite for limiting the illicit proliferation of small arms and light weapons. A robust record-keeping system provides the necessary means to trace small arms1 and investigate the illicit trade. The marking of small arms is a necessary component of the recordkeeping; it links a specific small arm to a unique record for that item.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Crime, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Law Enforcement
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
204. The Failure of Jihad in Saudi Arabia
- Author:
- Thomas Hegghammer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- This paper traces and assesses al-Qa'ida''s efforts to launch an insurgency in Saudi Arabia from the mid-1990s until today. It examines the background of Usama bin Ladin's 1996 declaration of jihad, al-Qa'ida's activities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 1996 to 2002, and the causes and evolution of the campaign waged by the group “al-Qa'ida on the Arabian Peninsula” (AQAP) from 2003 to 2006.
- Topic:
- Terrorism and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, and Sinai Peninsula
205. War in Saada: From Local Insurrection to National Challenge
- Author:
- Christopher Boucek
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Yemen's leaders consider their sporadic war against the Houthi rebels a conflict they can win and, in so doing, discourage southern secessionists—a more immediate threat to their hold on power and the nation's territorial integrity. Instead, this war in the North has exposed greater vulnerabilities for the regime, weakened the central government, and emboldened other threats to Yemeni and global stability such as al-Qaeda.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Civil War, Islam, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Yemen and Arabia
206. The Myth of a Kinder, Gentler War
- Author:
- Michael A. Cohen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- World Policy Journal
- Institution:
- World Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- Shortly after he assumed command of all U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan, Lt. Gen. Stanley McChrystal provided his soldiers with operational guidance for fighting insurgent Taliban forces. McChrystal's words directly reflect the Pentagon's new model of U.S. warfare and inform the philosophy behind the current U.S. military escalation in Afghanistan: “The ongoing insurgency must be met with a counterinsurgency campaign adapted to the unique conditions in each area that: protects the Afghan people, allowing them to choose a future they can be proud of; provides a secure environment allowing good government and economic development to undercut the causes and advocates of insurgency.”
- Topic:
- NATO and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
207. The Taliban Beyond the Pashtuns
- Author:
- Antonio Giustozzi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Although the Taliban remain a largely Pashtun movement in terms of their composition, they have started making significant inroads among other ethnic groups. In many cases, the Taliban have co-opted, in addition to bandits, disgruntled militia commanders previously linked to other organizations, and the relationship between them is far from solid. There is also, however, emerging evidence of grassroots recruitment of small groups of ideologically committed Uzbek, Turkmen and Tajik Taliban. While even in northern Afghanistan the bulk of the insurgency is still Pashtun, the emerging trend should not be underestimated.
- Topic:
- Islam, Politics, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
208. Indonesia: The Dark Side of Jama'ah Ansharut Tauhid (JAT)
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Jama'ah Ansharut Tauhid (JAT), led by Indonesia's bestknown radical cleric Abu Bakar Ba'asyir, has been an enigma since its founding in 2008. An ostensibly aboveground organisation, it has embraced individuals with known ties to fugitive extremists. It has welcomed many members of the militant Jema'ah Islamiyah (JI) but clashed with the JI leadership over strategy and tactics. It preaches jihad against Islam's enemies but insists it stays within the law – though it rejects man-made laws as illegitimate. It is a mass membership organisation but wholly dependent on Ba'asyir, without whom it would quickly disintegrate. It has become an important element in the network of Indonesian jihadi groups but has been the target of harsh criticism from some erstwhile allies. Understanding JAT's nature, its many faces and the ideological rifts it has generated helps illuminate the weakness and divisions within the Indonesian jihadi movement today. It also highlights the ongoing but probably diminishing influence of Ba'asyir.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Islam, Politics, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Southeast Asia
209. Bridging Thailand's Deep Divide
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The protracted struggle between the royalist establishment and those allied with ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has left Thailand deeply polarised. It sparked the most violent political confrontations in recent times, killing people, injuring nearly 2,000 and inflicting deep wounds on the national psyche. The government of Abhisit Vejjajiva's unilateral offer of a “road map” to national reconciliation will lead nowhere without the participation of its opposition, including his deposed predecessor. A credible investigation of the violence, enduring legal reforms, and properly addressing societal inequities cannot succeed without the Thaksin-aligned Red Shirt movement. This cannot happen if its leaders are detained, marginalised, or on the run. Fresh elections that are peaceful, fair and accepted by all sides will be the first test to see if the country is back on track or has lost its way. Thailand should lift the emergency decree imposed over large swathes of the country or risk further damaging its democracy, hindering much needed reconciliation, and sowing the seeds of future deadly conflict.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Southeast Asia
210. Improving Security Policy in Colombia
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- President Álvaro Uribe's eight-year military campaign against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) has taken a heavy toll on Colombia's largest insurgent organisation. The government is now working to consolidate security gains by expanding state presence in several of the formerly most conflict-ridden regions. This strategy faces numerous challenges, not least because FARC's command and control structure has not collapsed. The insurgents are adapting to military pressure through guerrilla warfare tactics, aggressive recruitment among rural populations, broadened involvement in drug trafficking and alliances with other armed groups and drug trafficking organisations. Colombia's next president, Juan Manuel Santos, will take office on 7 August. As part of an integrated conflict resolution strategy, his government must increase the country's law enforcement and military capability against all illegal armed groups, including FARC. It also has to strengthen institutions, expand the rule of law, rigorously protect human rights, reduce poverty and design the political/negotiations component of a successful conflict resolution strategy. Security consolidation can only take root if Colombia tackles its pervasive problems of organised violence, criminality and illegality in an integrated manner.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Latin America