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91. Risky Business: A Case Study of PRC Investment in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan

Author:
Danny Anderson
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
China’s “New Silk Road” or “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) has reached Central Asia in resounding fashion. As a result, the republics of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have seen large increases in Chinese presence and investment. Although both countries have overlapping needs, the degree and character of PRC involvement in each has differed. PRC investment in Tajikistan is characterized by expensive loans on infrastructure investment and energy projects that the country may be unable to repay (Avesta.tj, December 25, 2017). Kyrgyzstan, while having hosted similar projects, is also attempting to move the country into the twenty-first century by improving its transportation and digital infrastructure (Tazakoom.kg). Development experts classify both countries as “high-risk” for debt distress given public debt projections (Cgdev.org). However, despite the risk of such an outcome, both countries appear inclined to welcome PRC investment with open arms, as a way of funding needed investment like power generation and logistical links with the outside world.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, Economic growth, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan

92. Can China Realize Africa’s Dream of an East-West Transport Link?

Author:
Cobus van Staden
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Several ambitious schemes have been proposed to link Africa’s east and west coasts, some of which are closer to full realization than others. Most notable in this respect is a plan to expand the existing Trans-African Highway 5 (TAH5) into a true cross-continental road and rail link, the early stages of which China has helped bring to fruition where Western consortiums failed. Likewise, Chinese investment in African infrastructure through Beijing’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) may help create expanded sub-regional linkages, particularly in East Africa, that could help facilitate the emergence of an eventual, true East-West link in the long term. However, in the short-to-mid-term, the obstacles to a truly robust set of East-West transport links are formidable, and it is unlikely that China’s involvement will be a panacea.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Asia

93. Exploring the Awareness of China Pakistan Economic Corridor: A Stakeholder’s Perspective

Author:
Fouzia Hadi Ali and Aban Abid Qazi
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to examine the prospects of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) from a stakeholder’s perspective. The identification and communication of stakeholders can play a vital role in identifying the perceptions of all who are directly or indirectly involved in a project. Moreover, this study focuses on the general nature of stakeholders and their awareness about the mega project. An exploratory study was conducted through a structured survey instrument to tap the awareness and opinions of the stakeholders connected to the likely benefits of CPEC. The results revealed interesting findings relating to their opinions about CPEC. The study further suggests some important implications and future directions to introduce an inclusive approach to mitigate the misconceptions about CPEC.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, Economy, and Economic growth
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Punjab

94. A Sense of Victory on Both Sides: A Recipe for Escalation in Gaza?

Author:
Amos Yadlin
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Following the "March of Return" events led by Hamas on two turbulent Fridays at the border fence between Israel and the Gaza Strip, both sides declared victory. And in the case of such a blatantly asymmetric conflict between parties with opposing aims, both sides can indeed claim victory, precisely because they are conducting parallel maneuvers. Israel operates largely on a physical dimension (protecting its sovereign territory), while Hamas works mainly on the cognitive-political level. In a world of images, intensive information campaigns, and mass media (including fake news), a sense of victory on both sides could intensify the hostilities on the Gaza border and perhaps even beyond in the coming weeks. Israel must stress that it is defending a recognized international border; clarify the legality and proportionality of its use of live fire; expand its visual documentation of the events; update Arab countries about the facts and balance the pro-Hamas messages delivered in the Arab media; and prepare for an escalation of the conflict. Finally, while focused on the immediate challenge of mass demonstrations on the Gaza border, Israel must continue to address the underlying issue: the growing distress in Gaza and the collapse of its infrastructures will make it hard for Israel to continue managing the situation with relatively low political, military, and financial costs. Mid-May will be followed by the month of Ramadan and another scorching summer. Temporary success in containing the new challenge posed by Hamas will not defuse the social-economic-military time bomb ticking in the Strip.
Topic:
Terrorism, Infrastructure, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

95. More than infrastructures: Policy Brief water challenges in Iraq

Author:
Tobias von Lossow
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
With the liberation of Mosul from so-called Islamic State (IS) in November 2017, Iraq entered – once again – a post-conflict period. In his Policy Brief Tobias von Lossow analyses how shrinking water quantities and acutely declining water quality pose tremendous challenges in the process of rebuilding the country: Dam building in Turkey and Iran has contributed to a remarkably reduced water inflow of the Euphrates and Tigris; Iraqi water installations had been in very poor condition before IS used water as a weapon and further damaged infrastructure; Tigris River’s waterflow upstream of Baghdad requires careful coordination between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and central government; extremely salinised water resources and environmental degradation in the Marshes risk the extinction of agricultural activities and livelihoods in that area. To address these challenges, technical measures will be important, and necessary – for instance, investment in water infrastructure. But that will not be nearly enough, as the water issue has the potential to accelerate re-emerging social divisions and political fragmentation and thus undermine Iraq’s stability and security. The political implications of water policies must be carefully taken into account in Iraq’s postconflict process and should complement technical efforts in this crucial sector. The basin-wide protection of the supply infrastructure could serve as a technical as well as a political entry point for water cooperation in the region.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Water, Infrastructure, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and Middle East

96. Increasing International Cooperation in Cybersecurity and Adapting Cyber Norms

Author:
Elena Chernenko, Oleg Demidov, and Fyodor Lukyanov
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
nformation and communications technology (ICT) presents one of the most critical modern challenges to global security. Threat assessments predict that the next major international crisis could be due to a state or terrorist group weaponizing ICTs to devastate critical infrastructure or military logistics networks. The proliferation of asymmetric warfare (i.e., conflicts between nations or groups that have disparate military capabilities) has increased states’ use of ICTs, which necessitates the development of an international code of cyber conduct. There is an urgent need for cooperation among states to mitigate threats such as cybercrime, cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, electronic espionage, bulk data interception, and offensive operations intended to project power by the application of force in and through cyberspace. Emerging cyber threats could precipitate massive economic and societal damage, and international efforts need to be recalibrated to account for this new reality. A common misperception is that the principal cybersecurity threats demanding urgent international collaboration are massive, state sponsored attacks that target critical infrastructure such as power plants or electrical grids, causing massive devastation and human casualties. In fact, cyber threats are more diverse and complex, often targeting private enterprises and endangering the technical integrity of the digital world. The near-total digitalization of business models makes the global economy more vulnerable to cyberattacks, not only from states but also from criminal organizations and other nonstate actors.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

97. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan push for cooperation

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
The African Union (AU) held its 30th Summit from 22 – 29 January in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The central theme of the Summit was a clarion call to strengthen African unity and fight against corruption and the eradication of poverty on the continent. President Paul Kagame of Rwanda was elected the new AU chairperson at the Summit, however, it is a significant development that transpired on the sidelines of the Summit among Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan that this policy update seeks to address pursuant to an earlier published policy brief, The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and geopolitical tension between Egypt and Ethiopia with Sudan in the mix.2 President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt, Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir and Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn all signaled their resolve to avoid misunderstandings cognizance of Ethiopia’s construction of its dam, The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) during a sideline meeting at the Summit. A statement released by the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicated that, “we (the three country heads) have agreed to work as one on matters among the three countries, particularly on the construction of the GERD” (Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2018).
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, International Affairs, Infrastructure, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt

98. Financing the Economic Stabilization and Growth Programme (Zambia Plus) in the Shadow of the IMF

Author:
Caesar Cheelo
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
In February 2018, the IMF reaffirmed its August 2017 formal withdrawal from negotiations with Zambia over a package of financial support. The strong position to hold negotiations came in the IMF’s Article IV Consultations report of 2017, which concluded that Zambia was at high risk of debt distress, and that whilst financial management and fiscal discipline were improving, the extent of the improvement was not sufficient to mitigate the growing public debt and fiscal deficit. Whilst the IMF deal may be off the table for the time being, the many of problems that drove Zambia to engage the IMF most assuredly remain unresolved. Two to three years after the economic minicrisis of 2015, Zambia continued to accrue sizable new debts, to utilize the proceeds poorly (to fund consumption spending) and to run persistent fiscal deficits – albeit a smaller and seemingly better managed deficit in 2017 compared to 2015 and 2016. These issues remain problematic despite the partial economic rebound, with high copper prices, good rains (leading to good harvests and more reliable power supply), and a stable Kwacha providing a strong platform for improvement. Nonetheless, fiscal performance is lagging behind and Zambia may be missing a window to reestablish prudent public financial management.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Governance, Reform, Macroeconomics, IMF, and Public Debt
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

99. Polish FDI in Central Asian Countries

Author:
Krystyna Gomółka
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
Since gaining independence, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan gradually opened their markets to foreign investors. Before Poland’s acces- sion to the European Union, the activities of Polish investors in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Ta- jikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan were based on bilateral treaties concluded by Poland with those countries. Later, except Turkmenistan, they were governed by the partnership and cooperation agreements between the European Communities and their Member States. Despite the ample investment opportunities and favourable conditions for access to the mar- ket, the activity of Polish companies in these markets has not produced a significant effect. Poland invested with more considerable success on the markets in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz- stan. It made investment attempts in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, leaving out Turkmenistan. The reason why Poland has a weak position in these markets is the distance between the partners and inability of Polish companies to efficiently compete with large multinational companies which have been operating there for years. In the Kazakh market, good invest- ment prospects are available for waste management, petrochemical, mining and road con- struction companies. In Kyrgyzstan, there are cooperation possibilities in the area of modern agricultural and processing technologies and establishment of fruit and vegetable process- ing enterprises. In Tajikistan, enterprises can invest in petroleum and natural gas extraction and exploitation, the fuel market, processing of precious metals and construction of conven- tional and hydroelectric power plants. In Turkmenistan, Polish companies can compete for road, railway and housing construction contracts, whereas in Uzbekistan they can invest in businesses covered by government tax reductions.
Topic:
Markets, Infrastructure, Governance, and Investment
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan

100. Petrol and Natural Gas Market of the Visegrád Group Countries 1993–2016: Current State and Prospects

Author:
Robert Klaczynski
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The paper addresses problems related to energy policies pursued by Central Eu- ropean countries. It identifies the amounts of energy resources in individual countries in the Visegrád Group as well as the transmission infrastructures they use for natural gas and crude oil. The author discusses projects aimed at diversifying energy supplies which are of key importance to V4 countries. The article also presents relations between those countries in both within the group and bilaterally. When outlining prospects of a V4 energy strategy, the account is taken of such vital aspects as relations with the Russian Federation and the contribution made by Visegrád countries to EU actions designed to develop a single energy market.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Regional Cooperation, Infrastructure, and Gas
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Central Europe, and Visegrad