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101. Inflation Targets in Latin America

Author:
José De Gregorio
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Many emerging-market economies have adopted inflation targeting regimes since they were introduced by New Zealand in 1990. Latin America has not been the exception. Currently eight Latin American countries conduct monetary policy through inflation targeting regimes: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Guatemala, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. This paper reviews the history of chronic inflation in Latin America and describes these countries’ experience with inflation targets and their performance during the global financial crisis.
Topic:
Markets, Developing World, Economies, and Inflation
Political Geography:
Brazil, Colombia, Uruguay, Latin America, Central America, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Guatemala, and Paraguay

102. Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon and Christopher G. Collins
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The Phillips curve, which traces out a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment, has undergone tremendous changes over more than 100 years. Some researchers argue that the slope of the curve in the United States fell substantially around 20 years ago so that unemployment now has little or no effect on inflation. This paper shows that another hypothesis is equally consistent with the data: The Phillips curve may be nonlinear when inflation is low, with the economy having operated in the flat region of the curve for most of the past 20 years. The next few years may be decisive in the debate between these hypotheses, as unemployment has returned to a range in which a nonlinear curve ought to display significant steepness. A flat Phillips curve implies little change in inflation going forward, but a nonlinear curve implies moderate increases in inflation over the next few years.
Topic:
Economics, Inflation, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

103. The German Undervaluation Regime under Bretton Woods How Germany Became the Nightmare of the World Economy

Author:
Martin Höpner
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
Germany is an undervaluation regime, a regime that steers economic behavior towards deterioration of the real exchange rate and thereby towards export surpluses. This regime has brought the eurozone to the brink of collapse. But it is much older than the euro. It was established during the Bretton Woods years and has survived all subsequent European currency orders. The regime operates in two steps: competitive disinflation against trading partners; and resistance against correcting revaluations. The Bretton Woods order provided perfect conditions for the establishment and perpetuation of the regime: it was flexible enough for sufficient macroeconomic policy autonomy to bring about differential inflation rates, and sticky enough to delay and minimize revaluations.
Topic:
Political Economy, Capitalism, Exchange Rate Policy, Inflation, and Undervaluation
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

104. Numerous Factors: Can Sudan Overcome the Inflation Crisis?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Sudan grapples with an acute economic crisis, as the inflation rates spiked to unprecedented levels in the past months, causing a severe liquidity crunch due to the cash-strapped banking system. This has coincided with the constant plummeting of the Sudanese pound against the dollar in the past period. The current compound crisis has ensued from the drop in the country’s oil export revenues in the wake of the secession of South Sudan in 2011, while other resources, such as gold, have not been able to fill the growing trade deficit. To contain this crisis, the government should continue its efforts to adhere to its recent economic reform program and to strengthen monetary and fiscal policies to address the existing economic distortions.
Topic:
Economy, Crisis Management, Exchange Rate Policy, and Inflation
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

105. Quarterly Review of the Georgian Economy (IV Quarter of 2017)

Author:
Merab Kakulia, Nodar Kapanadze, and Lela Bakhtadze
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The Quarterly Review of the Georgian Economy is an electronic publication of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (Rondeli Foundation), which aims at informing readers about the ongoing processes within the country’s economy. The review is based on data of official statistics and on expert estimates.
Topic:
Debt, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Budget, Employment, Economic Growth, Banks, and Inflation
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia

106. Quarterly Review of the Georgian Economy ( I Quarter, 2018)

Author:
Merab Kakulia, Nodar Kapanadze, and Lela Bakhtadze
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The Quarterly Review of the Georgian Economy is an electronic publication of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (Rondeli Foundation), which aims at informing readers about the ongoing processes within the country’s economy. The review is based on data of official statistics and on expert estimates.
Topic:
Debt, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Budget, Employment, Economic Growth, Banks, and Inflation
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia

107. Quarterly Review of the Georgian Economy ( II Quarter, 2018)

Author:
Merab Kakulia, Nodar Kapanadze, and Lela Bakhtadze
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The Quarterly Review of the Georgian Economy is an electronic publication of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (Rondeli Foundation), which aims at informing readers about the ongoing processes within the country’s economy. The review is based on data of official statistics and on expert estimates.
Topic:
Debt, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Budget, Employment, Economic Growth, Banks, and Inflation
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia

108. Emerging economies need safeguards to tackle currency crisis

Author:
Gao Haihong
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
The recent appreciation of the US dollar and the uneven pace of monetary policy normalization in many countries have become a headwind for emerging economies. This month, the Turkish lira has sharply depreciated against the US dollar, followed by a jump in Turkish bond yield for fear of high inflation. Earlier this year, after failing to stabilize its currency, Argentina sought the International Monetary Fund's support to stabilize the peso. The IMF agreed to give a $50 billion standby line of credit but on conditions that required necessary domestic fiscal and structural adjustment. These developments reaffirmed the eminent risks facing the emerging economies. A strong dollar and tightened monetary policy in the US are prompting capital flight from countries that have high domestic public debt, huge external liability, and a weak current account balance and relatively open capital account. For example, Turkey’s total external debt to GDP was at 53.5% and its current account deficit was 7.1% to GDP.
Topic:
Economy, Inflation, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
China, Turkey, Asia, Argentina, and United States of America

109. Exchange Rate, Petroleum Price and Price Determination in Sierra Leone

Author:
B.I.B. Kargbo
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
The Sierra Leone economy is a net importer with a chronic negative balance of trade. Imports as a percentage of GDP averaged 40.8% between 2001 and 2010. Imports of food, mineral fuels and lubricants accounted for 50.8% of the total value of imports within the same period. Also, the value of the leone depreciated from Le 920.75 in 1996 to Le 4,000 in 2010 while inflation averaged 12.6% for the same period. As a result of the interplay of these forces, fuel prices are most times adjusted upwards to compensate for the depreciation of the leone against the dollar or to match up with increases in the world price of crude oil. This study determines the effects of monetary environment as well as exchange rate movement and petroleum prices on domestic prices in Sierra Leone by estimating a hybrid model of inflation in which inflation responds to its own lags, lags of other variables, and a set of error-correction terms that represent short run disequilibria from the money market, external sector and output that feed into the inflation process.The empirical results from the parsimonious model show that petroleum product prices and exchange rate, as well as monetary factors determine inflation in Sierra Leone.What is also significant from the findings is that the contribution of petroleum prices to domestic price formation is unfounded in the long run, meaning that it is only a short-run phenomenon. The results also support the view that a fair portion of fluctuations in domestic prices is driven by its own shocks.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, and Inflation
Political Geography:
Africa and Sierra Leone

110. Economic recovery and inflation

Author:
Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed—in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier). However, there are numerous signs in both the real and financial spheres that these pressures are disappearing. The largest advanced economies are growing up to their potential, unemployment is systematically decreasing, the financial sector is more eager to lend, and its clients—to borrow. Rapidly growing asset prices signal the possibility of similar developments in other segments of the economy. In this new macroeconomic environment, central banks should cease unconventional monetary policies and prepare themselves to head off potential inflationary pressures.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Inflation, Macroeconomics, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Europe, Global Focus, and European Union