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2542. Georgia: What Now?
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Georgia's political crisis, which climaxed in the forced resignation of President Eduard Shevardnadze on 23 November 2003, is not over yet and could still lead to violence and the country's disintegration. Georgia, in other words, is still pre-conflict, not post- conflict, and exceptional international action is required to contain the potential for chaos. Washington, which quietly supported what U.S. media called the “Rose Revolution”, has promised aid for organisation of the presidential election on 4 January 2004, as has the European Union; other donors should follow suit, and the international community should maintain this support through the equally important and potentially more contentious legislative elections in the spring.
- Topic:
- Government, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Washington, and Georgia
2543. Indonesia Backgrounder: A Guide to the 2004 Elections
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Indonesia faces at least two and probably three national elections in 2004, including a presidential vote, but they are unlikely to bring fundamental change. Citizens are increasingly disillusioned with the half-decade of democracy and “money politics” they have experienced since the collapse of Soeharto's authoritarian New Order.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Southeast Asia
2544. Afghanistan: The Constitutional Loya Jirga
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- When delegates to Afghanistan's Constitutional Loya Jirga assemble in Kabul on 13 December 2003, they will begin debating and ultimately deciding upon a draft document that is intended to establish a strong presidency while accommodating the other dominant figures at the country's centre. It is a constitution, however, that for the most part would fail to provide meaningful democratic governance, including power-sharing, a system of checks and balances, or mechanisms for increasing the representation of ethnic, regional and other minority groups. The manner in which the draft has been prepared and publicised, as well as its content, raise serious questions about whether it can become the first constitution in Afghanistan's history to command genuinely deep popular support and, therefore, contribute to national stability.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Kabul
2545. Kashmir: The View From Islamabad
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- More than five decades after independence, Pakistan is no closer to a resolution with India of the dispute over Kashmir. Pakistan and India have fought three wars, two of them over the status of Kashmir. They have been on the brink of war on several other occasions, including in Siachen in 1987 and in Kargil in 1999. From December 2001 to October 2002, the nuclear-armed protagonists came close to war once again when India mobilised along its international border with Pakistan following the terrorist attack on the parliament in New Delhi. Intense diplomatic and political pressure by the U.S., in coordination with other G-8 countries, averted what could have been a catastrophic clash.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, Regional Cooperation, and War
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, South Asia, India, Kashmir, New Delhi, and Islamabad
2546. Kashmir: The View From New Delhi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- For half a century Kashmir has been the major issue of contention between India and Pakistan. In India's view, the conflict in the state of Jammu and Kashmir constitutes a major internal security threat and is driven by Pakistani interference. No solution is possible, according to the Indian leadership, until Pakistan ceases its support for militants there.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, Kashmir, and New Delhi
2547. Kashmir: Learning from the Past
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- While its roots predate Indian and Pakistani independence, the Kashmir conflict's current directions can best be understood in the light of the nationalism and state building that followed the end of British colonial rule. Domestic factors, including the imperatives of regime legitimacy and consolidation, remain important influences in both countries.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Kashmir
2548. Iraq's Constitutional Challenge
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As attacks against the occupying forces and suicide bombs against civilian targets intensify, the need for a new political formula that will increase the powers, legitimacy and representative quality of Iraqi governing institutions is becoming more urgent than ever. The response to date, reflected in United Nations Security Council Resolution 1511, has been to tie the transfer of the exercise of sovereignty to the drafting of an Iraqi constitution, its adoption in a referendum and ensuing national elections.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Politics, Religion, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Arabia, and United Nations
2549. Building Bridges In Mostar
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Making another attempt to unite the divided city of Mostar has become, unexpectedly but appropriately, a very high international priority in Bosnia " Herzegovina (BiH) in 2003. By late summer, it had come to be ranked by High Representative Paddy Ashdown among his four major projects for structural reform. In each case, the High Representative appointed a foreign chairman to lead commissions composed of domestic representatives and charged with finding statebuilding solutions in the symbolically or substantively important realms of defence, intelligence, indirect taxation - and Mostar. All aim to unify divided and dysfunctional institutions. The first three commissions, which have already reported and whose draft legislation is proceeding through the various parliaments, have also sought to empower the state over the entities and their respective national establishments.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
2550. Nepal: Back to the Gun
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- With the collapse of the ceasefire and peace talks between government and Maoist insurgents, Nepal appears to be in for months more of bloody fighting. There are prospects for eventual resumption of negotiations since neither side can realistically expect a military victory, and there are indications of what a diplomatic compromise might look like. However, the international community needs to urge all sides toward compromise and press the government to restore democracy, bring the political parties back into the picture and control the army's tendency to commit serious abuses when conducting operations. Similarly, the Maoists should discontinue targeted assassinations, bombing and widespread extortion.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Government, Regional Cooperation, and War
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Nepal