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1111. Can Economic Reform Open a Peaceful Path to Ending Burma's Isolation?

Author:
Raymond Gilpin and Lex Rieffel
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
After decades of domestic conflict, military rule and authoritarian governance, Burma's economy could provide a viable entry point for effective international assistance to promote peace. Doing so would require a detailed understanding of the country's complex and evolving political economy. The lingering income and distributional effects of the 2008 Cyclone Nargis, anticipated changes associated with the new constitution and the 2010 elections and the Obama administration's decision to devote more attention to Burma suggest that the time is ripe for the creative application of economic mechanisms to promote and sustain peace. Looming challenges could derail Burma's prospects for economic and political stability. These challenges include irrational macroeconomic policies, failing to ensure all citizens enjoy benefits accrued from natural resources, endemic corruption, a flourishing illicit economy, a dysfunctional financial system and critical infrastructure bottlenecks. Failure to address these problems would frustrate peacebuilding efforts. A conflict sensitive economic strategy for Burma would focus on effective capacity-building, sustained policy reform, progressive steps to reduce corruption, fiscal empowerment of subnational authorities and prudent natural resource management. Success in these areas requires unwavering political will for sensibly sequenced policy improvements by domestic actors and finely targeted support from Burma's international partners.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:
Myanmar

1112. Congo: l'enlisement du projet démocratique

Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
La consolidation de la démocratie en République démocratique du Congo (RDC) est entravée dans presque toutes ses dimensions et le régime congolais reste fragile. Lorsque Joseph Kabila est devenu le premier président élu démocratiquement en 2006, la communauté internationale a considéré cette élection comme une avancée majeure du processus de paix. Aujourd'hui, l'équilibre des pouvoirs est quasiment inexistant. Le cabinet présidentiel a pris l'ascendant sur le gouvernement, le parlement et le pouvoir judiciaire. Les libertés fondamentales sont fréquemment menacées et des réformes institutionnelles essentielles – la décentralisation et la réforme du secteur de la sécurité – n'ont pas significativement progressé.
Topic:
Democratization and Governance
Political Geography:
Democratic Republic of the Congo

1113. Ethnic or multi-ethnic parties? Party competition and legislative recruitment in Moldova

Author:
Oleh Protsyk and Ion Osoian
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
Securing adequate representation of minorities in institutions of the state is commonly described in the literature as an important mechanism for addressing issues of ethnic tensions in culturally diverse societies. A proportional electoral system is generally perceived as more friendly for representation of minority interests than a majoritarian single member district system. The introduction of the former system in a number of post-communist countries encouraged institutionalization of ethnic minority parties. These parties became a permanent part of the political landscape in South Eastern European countries such as Bulgaria and Romania.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, Ethnic Government, Governance, and Minorities
Political Geography:
Europe, Moldova, Bulgaria, and Romania

1114. Governance with/out Government: False Promises or Flawed Premises?

Author:
Tanja A. Börzel
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:
Governance with/out government has emerged as an alternative or functional equivalent to government. While there seems to be an increasing demand, the promise of governance to compensate for the weakness or failure of government rests on a major premise. Governments have to be strong enough so that non-governmental actors have an incentive to cooperate, and governments are not afraid of being captured. If this premise held, it would result in a serious dilemma for areas of limited statehood: The greater the demand for governance with/out government, the less likely it is to emerge and to be effective, precisely because government is weak.
Topic:
Government, Sovereignty, Political Theory, and Governance

1115. The Politics of the Comprehensive Approach: The Military, Humanitarian and State-building Discourses in Afghanistan

Author:
Karsten Friis
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Over the last years there has been an increasingly vocal call for improved coherence and coordination among the international community engaged in Afghanistan. Facing a surge in violence, limited developmental and economical progress and a corrupt and inept domestic political leadership, it is assumed that better coordination among the international actors will address many, if not all, these challenges.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, International Affairs, Military Strategy, Foreign Aid, Counterinsurgency, Governance, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

1116. Kyrgyzstan: A Hollow Regime Collapses

Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
A swift, violent rebellion swept into the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek in early April 2010, sparked by anger at painful utility price increases and the corruption that was the defining characteristic of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's rule. In less than two days the president had fled. Some 85 people were killed and the centre of the capital was looted. The thirteen-member provisional government now faces a daunting series of challenges. Bakiyev leaves be- hind a bankrupt state hollowed out by corruption and crime. Economic failure and collapsing infrastructure have generated deep public resentment. If the provisional government moves fast to assert its power, the risks of major long-term violence are containable: there are no signs of extensive support for Bakiyev or of a North-South split. The speed with which the Bakiyev administration collapsed is a salutary reminder of the risks of over emphasising Western security concerns in framing policy towards the region.
Topic:
International Affairs, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Kyrgyzstan

1117. Bombs and Ballots: Terrorism, Political Violence, and Governance in Bangladesh

Author:
Naureen Chowdhury Fink
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
International initiatives to counter terrorism and militancy have more often than not been directed at the military aspects of such threats, with insufficient attention paid to the specific context—the social, political, and regional dynamics—in which they evolve. In Bangladesh, for example, the combination of development challenges, weak governance, violent politics, and regional tensions has proved a combustible mix. These have prompted fears that the state is growing increasingly fragile and that it may be unable to withstand the threats posed by terrorism and violent religious radicalization over the long term.
Topic:
Political Violence, Terrorism, International Security, and Governance
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

1118. Does Fairness Matter?

Author:
Hakan Altinay
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Worldwide, there has been a recent increase in expressions of cynicism. We are reminded that all power is hard power, and that being loved or respected is no substitute for being feared. The great power game of nations always continues, we are forewarned, even when a higher goal or rhetoric is evoked. Superpowers are selfish, arbitrary, and dangerous nations, and they should not be embarrassed to be so and not feel constrained by international legitimacy and laws. We are cautioned against assuming that the rise of the world's emerging powers is doing anything to the status of United States as the sole superpower. Naturally, it would be a folly to think that global public opinion is in effect a “second superpower,” or even a crucial factor. Such concerns are the Lilliputians binding an unsuspecting Gulliver. Anyone harboring naïve views needs to be told that good intentions are at best a distraction and a nuisance, and at worst a recipe for disaster, given their imprudence. Cynics prefer to be unconcerned about the achievements of transnational normative action, such as abolishing the slave trade or establishing the International Criminal Court.
Topic:
International Relations, Emerging Markets, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, and Brazil

1119. Côte d'Ivoire: sécuriser le processus électoral

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Already delayed six times, Côte d'Ivoire's presidential election is still some way off. Over two months after President Gbagbo dissolved the Independent Electoral Commission (Commission Électorale Indépendante, CEI) and the government, preparations are at a virtual standstill. The process of electoral identification already carries serious risks of violence. Armed groups and militias, the resurgence of xenophobic language and a challenging socio-economic situation make for an explosive environment, threatening the stability of this key West African country. Unless its politicians urgently meet the challenge of escalating tensions, accelerate electoral preparations and desist from hate speech, and unless regional, UN and other international partners establish the operational, political and security mechanisms necessary to prevent violence, the peace process could very well collapse, with dramatic consequences for the country and its neighbours. Côte d'Ivoire's civil war erupted in September 2002, when a section of the army attempted a coup d'Etat. The coup failed, but the insurgent soldiers took control of the northern part of the country. With the arrival of young intellectuals and under the leadership of former student leader Guillaume Soro, they articulated grievances that northerners were treated as second class citizens. An on-and-off war continued until the signing of the Ouagadougou Political Agreement in March 2007, which considerably calmed the situation. Since the middle of 2009, however, tensions have risen again over the electoral process and the question of Ivorian identity and nationality.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Politics, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and United Nations

1120. Cameroon: Fragile State?

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Cameroon's apparent stability in a turbulent region cannot be taken for granted. The co-option of elites through the distribution of state largesse, and the emigration of many educated young people provide a certain safety valve for tensions, but the failure of reform and continued poor governance mean people no longer believe in the rule of law or peaceful political change. Multiple risks of conflict exist in the build-up to presidential elections in 2011 and beyond. This background report, Crisis Group's first on Cameroon, analyses the historical roots of the current impasse.
Topic:
Political Violence, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon