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751. Importers, Exporters, and Multinationals: A Portrait of Firms in the U.S. that Trade Goods

Author:
J. Bradford Jensen, Peter K. Schott, and Andrew B. Bernard
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper provides an integrated view of globally engaged US firms by exploring a newly developed dataset that links US international trade transactions to longitudinal data on US enterprises. These data permit examination of a number of new dimensions of firm activity, including how many products firms trade, how many countries firms trade with, the characteristics of those countries, the concentration of trade across firms, whether firms transact at arm's length or with related parties, and whether firms import as well as export. Firms that trade goods play an important role in the United States, employing more than a third of the US workforce. We find that the most globally engaged US firms, i.e. those that both export to and import from related parties, dominate US trade flows and employment at trading firms. We also find that firms that begin trading between 1993 and 2000 experience especially rapid employment growth and are a major force in overall job creation.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

752. What Might the Next Emerging-Market Financial Crisis Look Like?

Author:
Morris Goldstein and Anna Wong
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper addresses the following question: If a financial crisis affecting a group of emerging economies were to take place sometime over the next three years, where would the crisis likely originate, how could it be transmitted to other economies, and which economies would be most affected by particular transmission or contagion mechanisms? A set of indicators is presented to gauge the vulnerability of individual emerging economies to various shocks, including a slowdown in import demand in both China and the United States, a fall in primary commodity prices, increased costs and lower availability of external financing, alternative patterns of exchange rate changes, and pressures operating on monetary and fiscal policies in emerging economies.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and China

753. Postponing Global Adjustment: An Analysis of the Pending Adjustment of Global Imbalances

Author:
Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Halving the US current account deficit as a share of GDP is likely to impose a burden of $2,350 per capita on the United States, which explains why US policymakers want to postpone adjustment. The rest of the world relies on the economic stimulus of a widening US external deficit, which explains why they are not eager to see global adjustment. The paper examines three scenarios of exchange rate adjustments, calls on the Federal Reserve to take more account of the external deficit in its words and policy actions, and familiarly notes the need for US fiscal adjustment as part of an efficient adjustment process. Complementary policies are required in the rest of the world. The paper discusses the pattern of recent international capital flows and proposes an international reserve diversification standard to remove some of the uncertainty about the management of foreign exchange reserves.
Topic:
Debt, Development, and Globalization
Political Geography:
United States

754. The Payoff from Globalization

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Paul L. E. Grieco
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The battle over the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) promises a reprise of familiar themes. While contemporary commentators may connect their arguments to NAFTA, in fact the "modern" debate over trade barriers can be traced back to British Corn Laws. Enacted to protect land barons, the Corn Laws were finally repealed in 1846 to make way for what Martin Wolf has called the "first age of globalization."
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Central America

755. Will Globalization Survive?

Author:
Martin Wolf
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Ours is not the first age of globalization. The decades before the First World War were remarkably similar to our own era. Under the aegis of the United Kingdom and stimulated by a host of technological advances, the world enjoyed an era of liberal trade, remarkably free movement of people, and almost entirely free movement of capital. The world also enjoyed an unprecedented rise in prosperity. According to the economic historian, Angus Maddison, real GDP per head rose at a rate of 1.3 percent a year in the world as a whole between 1870 and 1913. This is not far short of the improvement of the past three decades. As table 1 shows, only Asia and Africa, both victims of colonialism, failed to share in the rising prosperity.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, and Asia

756. This is Bangalore Calling: Hang Up or Speed Dial? What Technology-Enable International Trade in Services Means for the US Economy

Author:
Catherine L. Mann
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Globalization, always a contentious issue, has become even more so with media reports of U.S. service-sector jobs being outsourced to emerging-market economies, such as call center operations to Ireland or programming jobs to India. Traditionally, these jobs have been considered “nontradable” and therefore safe from the competitive forces of international trade and investment. But increasingly, technological advances are making it easier to buy services from other companies, even those in developing countries, where savings in the cost of labor or the opportunity to use the 24- hour clock to speed product develop- ment can be irresistible.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Ireland

757. Financial Sector Development and Productivity Growth

Author:
George Mavrotas and Subal C. Kumbhakar
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Recent years have witnessed important structural changes around the world as a result of the globalization process, the creation of new economic blocks and the liberalization of financial sector in many countries. Responding to these changes many sectors of the industrialized countries have gone through major deregulatory changes to acclimate themselves to new environments. At the same time, many countries have undertaken institutional reforms to build a market-orientated financial system in the hope that transition towards market economy will improve productivity. In the face of uncertainty resulting from changes in regulatory structure and the development of financial institutions to foster market economy, many countries may not be able to achieve their maximum growth potential. In other words, productivity growth is likely to depend on the development of financial institutions and the stage of economic development That is, a less developed country is likely to benefit more (in terms of output growth rate) from the development of financial institutions than a developed economy with well-developed financial system. In this paper we document this by using data covering 65 countries, varying substantially in term s of level of development and geographic location, and spanning the period 1960-1999. Empirical results obtained from the estimation of two different empirical models regarding the measurement of total factor productivity growth seem to confirm a priori expectations about the overall positive influence of financial systems on productivity in line with previous work on this front. Our results remain robust with respect to alternative definitions of financial sector development we tried.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance

758. Poverty and the Welfare Costs of Risk Associated with Globalization

Author:
Ethan Ligon
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
'Globalization' implies change, and uncertainty over future change may affect household welfare. We use data on Lorenz curves over the last fifty years for a sample of 53 (mostly developing) countries. Treating each country-quintile-year as an observation, we first account for variation in consumption expenditures, finding that global shocks are of less importance than country -level shocks in explaining variation in country-quintile consumption growth. While poorer households experience more rapid consumption growth than do wealthier households, they also bear much more risk. However, we find no evidence that this greater risk is related to globalization.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Human Welfare, and Poverty

759. Explaining Threshold Effects of Globalization on Poverty: An Institutional Perspective

Author:
Alice Sindzingre
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper focuses on the non-linearity of the transmission of the impact of globalization on poverty and the existence of threshold effects. Institutions constitute a critical factor for the creation of threshold effects in the impact of globalization on poverty. Institutions—their credibility, ability to be transformed by globalization, and the ways they give the poor access to the beneficial effects of globalization—determine whether the benefits of globalization are spread to the poor or are locked in by particular groups. They also determine whether or not the negative shocks associated with globalization are transmitted in an unfettered manner. The paper presents a theory of institutions that distinguishes several components, which evolve differently and explain the threshold effects that institutions generate upon the impact of globalization on the poor. The paper then shows that social institutions and norms have a critical role in the generation of these threshold effects. It finally examines the interactions between social institutions and state policies institutions, which may contribute to the formation of poverty traps.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, and Poverty

760. Trade Openness and Vulnerability in Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Pierluigi Montalbano, Alessandro Federici, Umberto Triulzi, and Carlo Pietrobelli
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper offers a substantive contribution to the debate on the role of international trade on the development of emerging countries. The aim is to detect empirically the phenomenon of vulnerability induced by trade openness. The methodology adopts a forward-looking approach and tries to fill a missing link in the theory between trade shocks, volatility, and the wellbeing of countries, distinguishing between 'normal' and 'extreme' volatility.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe