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141. Côte d'Ivoire: sécuriser le processus électoral

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Already delayed six times, Côte d'Ivoire's presidential election is still some way off. Over two months after President Gbagbo dissolved the Independent Electoral Commission (Commission Électorale Indépendante, CEI) and the government, preparations are at a virtual standstill. The process of electoral identification already carries serious risks of violence. Armed groups and militias, the resurgence of xenophobic language and a challenging socio-economic situation make for an explosive environment, threatening the stability of this key West African country. Unless its politicians urgently meet the challenge of escalating tensions, accelerate electoral preparations and desist from hate speech, and unless regional, UN and other international partners establish the operational, political and security mechanisms necessary to prevent violence, the peace process could very well collapse, with dramatic consequences for the country and its neighbours. Côte d'Ivoire's civil war erupted in September 2002, when a section of the army attempted a coup d'Etat. The coup failed, but the insurgent soldiers took control of the northern part of the country. With the arrival of young intellectuals and under the leadership of former student leader Guillaume Soro, they articulated grievances that northerners were treated as second class citizens. An on-and-off war continued until the signing of the Ouagadougou Political Agreement in March 2007, which considerably calmed the situation. Since the middle of 2009, however, tensions have risen again over the electoral process and the question of Ivorian identity and nationality.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Politics, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and United Nations

142. Somalia's Divided Islamists

Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The growing internal schisms and factionalism within Somalia's Islamist movement risk plunging the country even deeper into violence and bloodshed, with dangerous implications for the wider region and beyond. These divisions are also aggravating the political crisis by polarising groups further along ideological, theological and clan lines. However, a limited opportunity may now exist for Somalia's political actors and the international community to capitalise on these divisions and re-alignments to reach out to the increasing numbers of domestic militants disenchanted with the growing influence of foreign jihadis and extremist elements bent on pursuing a global agenda.
Topic:
Islam, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

143. Fault lines: Tracking armed violence in Yemen

Author:
Emile LeBrun
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
A unified state for just 20 years, Yemen has endured decades of social and political turmoil. It is also afflicted by a number of interlocking armed conflicts. These range from separatist political clashes between state security forces and protesters to all-out civil war—drawing in Saudi Arabia— and terrorism, which has seen the United States, the United Kingdom, and others become involved. Meanwhile, under the international radar, simmering social conflicts—primarily over land and water—reportedly account for some 4,000 violent deaths every year.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Civil War, Armed Struggle, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

144. Promises, Promises: A briefing paper for the Kabul Conference on Afghanistan

Author:
Ashley Jackson
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The Kabul Conference marks the ninth international conference on Afghanistan in nearly as many years. The conference aims to present a new set of development programs and shore up international support for civilian efforts. It will also follow up on commitments made on anticorruption and reconciliation during the London Conference in January 2010. Yet much of the hope and optimism that marked the earlier conferences such as the Bonn Conference in 2001, which set out the parameters for the interim government, and the Paris Conference in 2006, which outlined a strategy for reconstruction and development, is now gone.
Topic:
Security, Development, War, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

145. Africa's Fragile States: Empowering Extremists, Exporting Terrorism

Author:
Zachary Devlin-Foltz
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Africa's fragile states create political and security environments that enhance the leverage of Islamist extremists in their ongoing struggle with moderates for influence. Countering extremism in Africa, therefore, cannot be separated from building stronger, more legitimate states. Robust state security operations can neutralize extremists in the short term. However, they are an insufficient long-term counterextremism strategy unless coupled with opportunities for moderates to engage in the political process. In fragile states, maintaining moderate Islamist support for the state should be a central stabilization objective.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Terrorism, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa and Washington

146. Somalia's Endless Transition: Breaking the Deadlock

Author:
Andre Le Sage
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was given a second lease on life in January 2009, after successful peace negotiations in Djibouti produced new TFG leadership and yielded substantial international backing. However, the TFG remains weak and has yet to develop new political alliances or military capabilities that provide traction against Islamist insurgent groups. The insurgents themselves—including al Shabab and Hizbul Islamia—are also weak and internally divided.
Topic:
Government, Islam, Insurgency, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

147. Fiji: the flailing state

Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Fiji's President Ratu Josefa Iloilovatu Uluivuda announced on 10 April 2009 that he had abrogated Fiji's 1997 constitution, appointed himself head of state, revoked the appointment of all judicial officers and would direct an interim government to hold parliamentary elections by September 2014. The President's announcement followed a Court of Appeal judgement on 9 April which ruled that Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama's December 2006 coup was illegal and directed the President to appoint an independent third person to lead an interim government and call for fresh elections under the 1997 constitution. On 11 April, President Iloilo reappointed Bainimarama as interim Prime Minister, who subsequently imposed strict censorship on the media, deported Australian journalist Sean Dorney, arrested a number of opponents and removed the Reserve Bank Governor, Savenaca Narube.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

148. Die Intervention der Vereinten Nationen in Somalia

Author:
Nils Goede
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
Der Report analysiert die Entscheidungsprozesse des Sicherheitsrats der Vereinten Nationen, die am 3. Dezember 1992 zu der Verabschiedung der Somalia‐Resolution 794 geführt haben. Fürdie Analyse wird der Multiple‐Streams‐Ansatz verwendet. Im Rahmen des Ansatzes warden Entscheidungssituationen als mehrdeutige Stimuli in Bezug auf Informationen, Ziele und Messkriterien betrachtet. Entscheidungen sind vor einem solchen Hintergrund oft weder rational begründbar, noch sind sie gezwungenermaßen linear‐kausal mit einem bestimmten Problem verbunden. Die Organisation ist stets mit einer hohen Anzahl von simultan auftretenden Problemen und Optionen konfrontiert und muss unter Zeitdruck bestimmen, welche Probleme und Handlungsoptionen auf die Agenda gesetzt werden und in welchen Themenbereichen eine Entscheidung ansteht. Lösungen werden hierbei zu einem bestimmten Zeitpunkt (künstlich) in Übereinstimmung mit Problemen und Akteuren gebracht und in eine Entscheidung transferiert. Die Untersuchung führt zu dem Ergebnis, dass die Verabschiedung der Resolution 794 weniger auf die tatsächliche Problemlage in Somalia zurückzuführen war als auf Dynamiken des amerikanischen Wahlkampfs und den stetigen Einsatz des VNGeneralsekretärs Boutros Boutros‐Ghali.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, United Nations, War, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Somalia

149. Somalia: The Trouble with Puntland

Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The semi-autonomous north-eastern Somali region of Puntland, once touted as a success of the “building blocks” approach to reestablishing national stability and widely viewed as one of the most prosperous parts of Somalia, is experiencing a three-year rise in insecurity and political tension. At its roots are poor governance and a collapse of the intra-clan cohesion and pan-Darood solidarity that led to its creation in 1998. Intra-Darood friction has eroded the consensual style of politics that once underpinned a relative stability. The piracy problem is a dramatic symptom of deeper problems that, left untreated, could lead to Puntland's disintegration or overthrow by an underground militant Islamist movement. A solution to the security threat requires the Puntland government to institute reforms that would make it more transparent and inclusive of all clans living within the region.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa, Somalia, and Puntland

150. Diagnosing USAID

Author:
Amy B. Frumin
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Security, Fragile/Failed State, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Washington