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1131. How Verbal Threats to Close Oil Transit Chokepoints Lead to Military Conflict

Author:
John Bowlus
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
On December 26, 2011, in response to US, European, and potential Asian sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the government in Tehran issued a threat to “cut off the Strait of Hormuz.” The US Defense Department responded that any blockade of the strait would be met with force. On first read, it is easy to dismiss such saber rattling as another chapter in the new Cold War in the Middle East between Iran and its allies – including Syria, Hamas, and Hezbollah – and the US, Israel, and the Sunni Gulf States, mostly notably Saudi Arabia. Iran has since backed away from its threat, but the event still carries importance because it is unclear how both the US and Iran will continue to respond, particularly as the diplomatic and economic pressures grow more acute while Iran's controversial nuclear program advances. Could such a verbal threat by Iran to cut off the Strait of Hormuzignite a military conflagration in the region? The relationship between military conflict and oil supply disruptions is well established; however, policymakers and analysts tend to focus on the incidents in which military conflict causes disruptions in oil supplies and sharp increases in prices. The first and most obvious example of this dynamic was the Arab-Israeli War of 1973. The subsequent oil embargo by the Arab members of the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) against the United States and the Netherlands for their support of Israel caused prices to soar as oil-consuming nations endured supply shortages. The Iranian Revolution from 1978 to 1979 was another event that curtailed Western nations' access to oil and caused prices to spike. When thinking about the relationship between military conflict and oil supply disruptions, however, policymakers and analysts should also recognize that the competition over oil – and even verbal threats to disrupt oil supplies by closing oil transit chokepoints – have either led directly to military conflict or have provided a useful cover under which countries have initiated military conflict. By examining past episodes when countries issued threats to close oil transit chokepoints, this Policy Brief helps illuminate the dangers associated with the current crisis over the Strait of Hormuz.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Arabia

1132. Cooperating with China in Africa

Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
OECD donors, international organisations and non-governmental organisations are increasingly cooperating with China in Africa. This policy brief offers recommendations for policy-makers on how to lay the groundwork for such cooperation. It also stresses that the involvement of African partners is critical in fully realizing the benefits such cooperation can provide for sustainable development.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Diplomacy, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa and China

1133. The China Puzzle, Part III: One Step Forward and Two Steps Back?

Author:
Margaret J. Nencheck
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Diplomatic Courier
Institution:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
February 2012 marked the 40th anniversary of President Richard Nixon's historic trip to China. In hindsight, Nixon's decision to open relations with China is seen as one of the major diplomatic achievements of the latter half of the 20th century. Forty years later, a generation of Millennials is learning Mandarin, working and studying in China, and thinking deeply about the prospect of American decline in an Asian century. To mark this milestone, members of Young Professionals in Foreign Policy (YPFP), each with unique perspectives on China and East Asian affairs, gave their views on China's role in today's world. This is the third in a four-part series.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
China, America, and East Asia

1134. U.S. Foreign Policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Author:
Ahmed Rashid and Steve Coll
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
This World Leaders Forum program, titled "U.S. Foreign Policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan," will feature a conversation between Ahmed Rashid, Pakistani journalist and author, and Steve Coll, staff writer for The New Yorker and President, New America Foundation, followed by a question and answer session with the audience. Opening remarks will be made by Bill Grueskin, Dean of Academic Affairs and Professor of Professional Practice, Columbia School of Journalism.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islam, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency

1135. China's New Courtship in South Sudan

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In the wake of Sudan's partition, Beijing has accelerated a re-orientation of its engagement in the resulting two states, most significantly through a new courtship in Juba. China's historical support for Khartoum left a sour legacy in the South, but the potential for mutual economic benefit means a new chapter in bilateral relations is now being written. Balancing new friends in Juba with old friends in Khartoum, however, has proven a delicate dance. China has been drawn into a high-stakes oil crisis between the two, the consequences of which may temper an otherwise rapidly expanding relationship with Juba. A sustainable solution to the crisis cannot be achieved in isolation; North-South stability, mutual economic viability and the security of Chinese interests will also depend on answers to other unresolved political and security issues, including in Sudan's marginalised peripheries. The future of Beijing's dual engagement, and the kind of relationship that emerges in the South, will depend in part on how the oil standoff – and this broader reform agenda – are confronted.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Oil, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and South Sudan

1136. Using US Strategic Reserves to Moderate Potential Oil Price Increases from Sanctions on Iran

Author:
Philip K. Verleger
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The United States has initiated new sanctions against Iran aimed at preventing it from collecting revenue from exports of crude oil. The European Union has followed, embargoing all imports of Iranian crude from July 1, 2012 and preventing any firms from entering into new contracts to import Iranian oil after January 23, 2012. The new US and EU sanctions could be the most draconian in many years. If implemented fully, US sanctions would force trading partners to choose between the United States and Iran. EU sanctions would cut Iran off from an important market. These sanctions, while reducing Iranian income, could pose a very serious economic threat to countries that have significant trade with the United States and/or import significant quantities of oil from Iran.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Oil, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

1137. Indonesia's Democratic Politics and Foreign Policy-Making: A Case Study of Iranian Nuclear Issue, 2007 - 2008

Author:
Iisgindarsah
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This paper studies the impact of domestic politics upon Indonesia's foreign policy-making. Serving as a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council from 2007 to 2008, Indonesia voted on two key resolutions concerning the Iranian nuclear issue. While approving international sanctions against Iran under UNSC Resolution No. 1747, the Indonesian government preferred to abstain from voting on Resolution No. 1803. This paper argues the country's changing response to the Iranian nuclear issue was a consequence of domestic opposition. The case study specifically identifies the interplay between majority Moslem population, religious mass organizations and political parties as key factors which weigh upon the “strategic calculus” behind Indonesia's foreign policy formulation. The paper will conclude while the executive still drives the country's foreign policy, the parliament and social-political groups have new powers to cajole and criticize the government into reversing or softening an established policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Islam, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Iran, Indonesia, and United Nations

1138. Stirring up the South China Sea

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The conflicting mandates and lack of coordination among Chinese government agencies, many of which strive to increase their power and budget, have stoked tensions in the South China Sea. Repeated proposals to establish a more centralised mechanism have foundered while the only agency with a coordinating mandate, the foreign ministry, does not have the authority or resources to manage other actors. The Chinese navy\'s use of maritime tensions to justify its modernisation, and nationalist sentiment around territorial claims, further compound the problem. But more immediate conflict risks lie in the growing number of law enforcement and paramilitary vessels playing an increasing role in disputed territories without a clear legal framework. They have been involved in most of the recent incidents, including the prolonged standoff between China and the Philippines in April 2012 in Scarborough Reef. Any future solution to the South China Sea disputes will require a consistent policy from China executed uniformly throughout the different levels of government along with the authority to enforce it.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Markets, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:
China and Israel

1139. Statement

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
The Council of American Ambassadors is a nonpartisan, professional organization established in 1983 that endeavors to educate the public about policy issues affecting the national interest. It also supports the role of the ambassador and the embassy team in carrying out US foreign policy in countries around the world.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States

1140. Rationalization of Turkey-Iran Relations: Prospects and Limits

Author:
Bayram Sinkaya
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
This article examines Turkish Iranian relations in the 2000s, when the two countries initiated an unprecedented rapprochement. It argues that modification of foreign policy paradigms in Turkey and Iran led to the rationalization of bilateral relations that paved the way for improvement of economic and political ties between the two states. In addition to the rationalization, a supportive regional context helped them expand their relations. However, structural differences prevent the Turkish-Iranian rapprochement from turning into a strategic partnership. Moreover, restructuring of the regional context and rise of the specter of a conflictual relationship, which is still alive, threaten the future of Turkish-Iranian relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Economics
Political Geography:
Iran and Turkey