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441. Exit During Crisis: How Openness, Migration, and Economic Crisis Affect Democratization

Author:
Joseph Wright
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Does economic crisis lead to authoritarian regime breakdown and democratization? In this paper, I argue that the availability of exit options for citizens conditions the relationship between economic crisis and democratization. Where citizens have more viable exit alternatives, economic crisis causes citizens to exit rather than protest, making democratization less likely. I measure exit options in three ways: a geographic instrument for bilateral trade; neighboring country GDP per capita; and past net migration. I use time series, cross - section data on up to 122 authoritarian regimes in 114 countries from 1946 – 2002 to test this argument and find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that more attractive exit options insulate dictators from the liberalizing effects of economic crisis.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Government, Political Theory, Financial Crisis, and Authoritarianism

442. The Global Financial Crisis and Africa's "Immiserizing Wealth"

Author:
Luc Soete and Alexis Habiyaremye
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Before the current global recession, many resource-rich African countries were recording unprecedented levels of growth due to a raw material price boom. However, the collapse in raw material prices and the ensuing severe economic difficulties have again exposed the vulnerability of these countries' natural resource export-focussed economic structures. In this research brief, we describe how Africa's abundance of natural resources attracted disruptive and predatory foreign forces that have hindered innovation-based growth and economic diversification by delaying the accumulation of sufficient stocks of human capital. We suggest that for their long-term prosperity, resource-rich African countries shift their strategic emphasis from natural to human resources and technological capabilities needed to transform those natural resources into valuable goods and services to compete in the global market.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Industrial Policy, Global Recession, Natural Resources, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and India

443. Billions More for International Institutions? The ABCs of the General Capital Increases (GCI)

Author:
Todd Moss, Sarah Jane Staats, and Julia Barmeier
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The international financial institutions dramatically increased their lending in 2008–09 to help developing countries cope with the global financial crisis and support economic recovery. Today, these organizations are seeking billions of dollars in new funding. The IMF, which only a few years ago was losing clients and shedding staff, expanded by $750 billion last year. The World Bank and the four regional development banks for Africa, Asia, Europe, and Latin America are asking to increase their capital base by 30 to 200 percent. A general capital increase (GCI) for these development banks is an unusual request. A simultaneous GCI request is a once-in-a-generation occurrence.
Topic:
International Relations, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, and World Bank
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Asia, and Latin America

444. Of the Press: Models for Transforming American Journalism

Author:
Michael Fancher
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The idea of convening a forum to seriously examine the need to save American journalism would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. But in August 2009, the conversation seemed timely and urgent.
Topic:
Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
America

445. Economic Growth and Institutional Innovation: Outlines of a Reform Agenda

Author:
William A. Galston
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
When experts and pundits are asked what the president and Congress should do to promote economic growth, they typically respond with a list of policies, often mixed with stylistic and political suggestions. Few focus on institutional change, which is too easy to conflate with yawn-inducing “governmental reorganization.”
Topic:
Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

446. The Future of Small Business Entrepreneurship: Jobs Generator for the U.S. Economy

Author:
Martin Neil Baily, Karen Dynan, and Douglas J. Elliott
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
As the nation strives to recover from the “Great Recession,” job creation remains one of the biggest challenges to renewed prosperity. Small businesses have been among the most powerful generators of new jobs historically, suggesting the value of a stronger focus on supporting small businesses— especially high-growth firms—and encouraging entrepreneurship. Choosing the right policies will require public and private decision-makers to establish clear goals, such as increasing employment, raising the overall return on investment, and generating innovations with broader benefits for society. Good mechanisms will also be needed for gauging their progress and ultimate success. This brief examines policy recommendations to strengthen the small business sector and provide a platform for effective programs. These recommendations draw heavily from ideas discussed at a conference held at the Brookings Institution with academic experts, successful private-sector entrepreneurs, and government policymakers, including leaders from the Small Business Administration. The gathering was intended to spur the development of creative solutions in the private and public sectors to foster lasting economic growth.
Topic:
Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

447. Reforming Global Banking Rules: Back to the Future?

Author:
Ranjit Lall
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
One of the most significant casualties of the recent financial crisis has been the Basel II Accord, a set of proposals to regulate the international banking system drawn up by a committee of G10 banking supervisors between 1999 and 2004. Whether or not they view Basel II as a direct contributor to the crisis, policymakers agree that the fundamental tenets of the accord have been decisively discredited by recent events. In this paper, I ask why Basel II's creators fell so short of their aim of improving the safety of the international banking system – that is, why Basel II failed. Drawing on recent work on global regulatory capture, I present a theoretical framework which emphasizes the importance of timing and sequencing in determining the outcome of rule-making in international finance. This framework helps to explain not only why Basel II failed, but also why the latest set of proposals to regulate the international banking system – the so-called 'Basel III' Accord – is likely to meet a similar fate.
Topic:
Financial Crisis

448. Reforming Global Banking Rules-how the G20 Can Save the Global Economy

Author:
Jakob Vestergaard, Ranjit Lall, and Martin Hojland
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
At the September 2009 Pittsburgh Summit the leaders of the G20 set out a series of far reaching regulatory reforms to “tackle the root causes of the crisis and transform the system for global financial regulation”. The centrepiece of the reform effort was Basel III, a new set of capital adequacy rules to be drawn up by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS), a group of international banking regulators, by the end of 2010. As the G20 convenes in Toronto almost one year later, Basel III is entering a critical phase in the reform process – a phase which will determine whether we see fundamental reform of the international banking system or merely a return to 'business as usual'. Drawing on the experience of the previous attempt to overhaul global capital standards, Basel II, this DIIS policy brief proposes a set of institutional and structural reforms to the BCBS to ensure that it succeeds in realizing the G20's vision for a sounder and more resilient financial system.
Topic:
Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Canada

449. Inside the World Bank's Black Box Allocation System: How Well Does IDA Allocate Resources to the Neediest and Most Vulnerable Countries?

Author:
Benjamin Leo
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
During the last few International Development Association (IDA) replenishment negotiations, several large donors have pressed for reforms to further increase the share of IDA resources provided to the neediest and most vulnerable countries. While the proposed reforms take different forms, the philosophical Thrust is the same—push IDA's focus further down the development chain. Against this backdrop, this paper explores just how well IDA's existing performance-based allocation (PBA) system actually addresses these issues. To achieve this, I examine how IDA allocations are distributed at each successive stage of the PBA methodology based upon a number of need and vulnerability measures. Next, I apply two simple measures to gauge IDA's performance: (1) whether per-capita allocations to the neediest and most vulnerable countries are equal to or greater than those for the best off countries and (2) whether allocations to the neediest and most vulnerable countries increase between the baseline and final allocation scenarios. Based on these criteria, IDA has a mixed track record. IDA's performance is very modest with respect to the relative share allocated to the neediest or most vulnerable countries. Of the eight measures examined, only two illustrate parity between final allocations to the bottom and top quartile of countries. However, the litany of PBA exceptions clearly helps to redistribute resources in absolute terms. Per-capita allocations to the neediest and most vulnerable countries more than doubles between the baseline and final PBA scenarios for every need and vulnerability indicator examined. Clearly, the existing system has several built-in biases to redistribute resources to these countries. However, these exceptions fall short from ensuring full parity that some IDA donors may wish to achieve. As such, the philosophical debate among key IDA donors likely will continue for the foreseeable future.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Financial Crisis

450. The Inefficiency of Clearing Mandates

Author:
Craig Pirrong
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In the aftermath of the financial crisis, attention has turned to reducing systemic risk in the derivatives markets. Much of this attention has focused on counterparty risk in the over-the counter market, where trades are bilaterally executed between dealers and derivative purchasers. One proposal for addressing such counterparty risk is to mandate the trading of derivatives over a centralized clearinghouse. This paper lays out the advantages and risks to a mandated clearing requirement, showing how, in some instances, such a mandate can actually increase systemic risk and result in more financial bailouts.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis