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331. The Middling Kingdom

Author:
Salvatore Babones
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
By any measure, China's economic growth has been unprecedented, even miraculous. According to the International Monetary Fund, the Chinese economy grew by an average of 9.6 percent per year between 1990 and 2010. At the beginning of the recent global financial crisis, many feared that the Chinese growth engine would grind to a halt. In late 2008, Chinese exports collapsed, triggering fears of political instability and popular revolt in the country. In the end, however, the global economic crisis turned out to be little more than a pothole on the road of China's economic growth. Inflationary pressures may now be building up in China, and China's property bubble may be threatening to burst, but most economists continue to predict rapid growth for the country well into the future. Although their forecasts vary widely, they seem to share the view that China's growth will be fast -- if not as fast as it has been -- and that this rate of growth will continue for decades. These predictions are at once cautious about the near future (China's performance will not be as extraordinary as it has been) and optimistic about the distant future (they see no end to China's upward trajectory). By coincidence or design, they are moderated extrapolations of current trends. For example, the Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Fogel believes that China will grow at an average annual rate of eight percent until 2040, by which time it will be twice as rich as Europe (in per capita terms) and its share of global GDP will be 40 percent (compared with 14 percent for the United States and five percent for the European Union). Other economists are slightly more cautious: Uri Dadush and Bennett Stancil of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace predict that China will grow by 5.6 percent per year through 2050.
Topic:
Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China

332. Beyond treasuries: A foreign direct investment program for U.S. infrastructure

Author:
Geraldine McAllister and Joel H. Moser
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In his jobs address to a joint session of Congress last week, President Obama returned to a familiar theme: a call for nontraditional infrastructure investment as a generator of economic growth and, ultimately, jobs. The President's frequent references to “private investment” and “fully paid” infrastructure are encouraging, yet there is no assurance that domestic private capital investment alone is sufficient to reverse the degradation of the nation's infrastructure. As host to the largest flows of inward foreign direct investment (FDI), it is time that the United States employs this critical source of capital in tackling the nation's infrastructure deficit.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Infrastructure, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

333. Europe's debt crisis: Where and when will it end?

Author:
Ben Jones
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Greece is not unique. Investors are finding it hard to judge which countries are "safe" or price for that risk. The EFSF is too small to buy the debt of larger states on the scale needed to stabilise markets. The EFSF cannot be scaled up in its current form without threatening the AAA ratings of the creditor countries.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Debt, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

334. US Tax Discrimination Against Large Corporations Should Be Discarded

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Martin Vieiro
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The United States holds contradictory views about large corporations. When Americans speak of breakthroughs in research and engineering, they are justly proud of large firms that pioneered railroads and steam engines in the 19th century, automobiles, electric power, and oil exploration in the 20th century, and computers, software, and biotechnology in the 21st century. Yet when talk turns to paying taxes, public opinion holds that large corporations should pay a higher statutory tax rate than other business firms, and enjoy fewer deductions in computing their taxable income. Despite common sense and the teachings of economics, tax discrimination is alive and well.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and America

335. Sustainability of Greek Public Debt

Author:
William R. Cline
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
On July 21, 2011, the heads of government of the euro area announced a new plan to address the Greek debt crisis. This policy brief presents a simulation exercise that examines whether the new arrangements are likely to provide a sustainable solution. The analysis focuses on four key measures: gross debt relative to GDP; net debt relative to GDP; net interest payments relative to GDP; and amortization of medium-and long-term debt coming due during the year in question, relative to GDP. The new Greek package shows prospective future progress on all four measures, and Greek debt looks much more sustainable after the package than before. Debt also appears considerably more manageable if the criterion is net debt or interest burden rather than gross debt ratio, although even for gross debt the ratio is down substantially by 2020. It also becomes clear that the major contribution of the private-sector involvement (PSI) part of the package is in the form of sharply cutting amortization due, although by avoiding large new borrowing at crisis-level interest rates it also alleviates the interest burden that would otherwise occur.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

336. Privatization Helps: The Hungarian Example

Author:
Donald Blinken
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
As Greece works out of financial crisis, it should look to Hungary fifteen years ago for part of the answer. Far too large a segment of the Greek economy remains locked up in public hands. Their sale to the private sector, as Hungarians discovered, while not a panacea, will help reduce catastrophic public debts, and salaries and pensions will become the responsibility of private owners rather than the government. The Greek Parliament's austerity plan would raise 70 billion euros from privatization by 2015. The government will sell stakes in banking, airports, water utilities, motorway concessions, port operations, state land, and mining rights. Selling assets to the private sector will also improve managerial know-how, increase transparency, and encourage confidence in a Greek recovery.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Greece

337. "The Rock Star of the Recovery": Explaining Sweden's Strong Economic Performance

Author:
Johan Berggren
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
Europe is beset by economic and financial risks: uneven and in many cases slow growth, high unemployment, weak public finances, jittery financial markets, and popular dissatisfaction with consolidation schemes. The sovereign debt crisis afflicting several southern and peripheral Euro-economies exemplifies Europe's current travails.
Topic:
Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Sweden

338. Export Trade Performance of Indian Economy during and Following the Global Financial Crisis

Author:
Dr. Sumanjeet Singh
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Towards the end of 2008 the effects of global recession started getting reflected in international trade. The fall in global demand and the slowing-down in economic growth translated into a substantial reduction in international trade. It affected the cross-border trade of virtually all countries and economic sectors. Indian exports trade could not remain unaffected in a situation where external demand was dwindling globally. The present paper reviews India's export performance during and following the global financial crisis. Indian exports started to decline in July 2008. It declined from US$ 17,095 million in July 2008 to US$ 11,516 million in March 2009, which accounts for almost 33 per cent decline. This growth contraction has come after a robust 25 per cent-plus average export growth since 2003. But, as a result of government policy measures and recovery in global economy, India's exports growth turned positive and exports grew by a whopping 54.1 per cent in March 2010 and recorded the highest growth rate among the world's top 70 economies in merchandise exports. India's merchandise exports during April 2010 at US$ 16.9 billion recorded a growth of 36.3 per cent as compared with a decline of 32.8 per cent registered in April 2009. Exports witnessed huge annualized growth of 56.9 per cent to $25.9 billion in May 2011 in a bright spot for the Indian economy, which is battling high inflation amid signs of a slowdown.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
India

339. Eurozone finally agrees a deal but uncertainties remain unresolved

Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
After protracted negotiations, Eurozone leaders finally agreed on a new package of measures last week. The outline deal has a three-pronged approach aimed at tackling the main aspects of the crisis: reducing Greece's debt burden, avoiding a credit crunch by recapitalising European banks, and preventing contagion to other countries via a boost to the EFSF.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

340. Herbert Hoover: Father of the New Deal

Author:
Steven Horwitz
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Politicians and pundits portray Herbert Hoover as a defender of laissez faire governance whose dogmatic commitment to small government led him to stand by and do nothing while the economy collapsed in the wake of the stock market crash in 1929. In fact, Hoover had long been a critic of laissez faire. As president, he doubled federal spending in real terms in four years. He also used government to prop up wages, restricted immigration, signed the Smoot-Hawley tariff, raised taxes, and created the Reconstruction Finance Corporation-all interventionist measures and not laissez faire. Unlike many Democrats today, President Franklin D. Roosevelt's advisers knew that Hoover had started the New Deal. One of them wrote, "When we all burst into Washington ... we found every essential idea [of the New Deal] enacted in the 100-day Congress in the Hoover administration itself."
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Political Economy, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States and Washington