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472. Implementing Equality: The "Constituent Peoples" Decision in Bosnia Herzegovina
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In July 2000, the Constitutional Court of Bosnia Herzegovina made an historic ruling requiring the two entities, the Federation of BiH and Republika Srpska (RS), to amend their constitutions to ensure the full equality of the country's three “constituent peoples” throughout its territory.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
473. Central Asia: Border Disputes and Conflict Potential
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- For the past decade Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have all been involved in high stakes negotiations to define their respective borders. Strong-arm politics, economic pressures, shadowy backroom deals, nationalist sentiments, public dissatisfaction and an environment of mutual mistrust have marked this process. The resolution of border issues peacefully and transparently would have a positive impact on regional security, economic cooperation, ethnic relations and efforts to combat drug trafficking and religious extremism. But progress has been slow, and no immediate breakthrough can be seen in an all too often antagonistic process that is defining the new map of Central Asia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan
474. Myanmar: The Politics of Humanitarian Aid
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Since the 1988 uprising and 1990 election in Burma/Myanmar, foreign governments and international organisations have promoted democratisation as the solution to the country's manifold problems, including ethnic conflict, endemic social instability, and general underdevelopment. Over time, however, as the political stalemate has continued and data on the socioeconomic conditions in the country have improved, there has been a growing recognition that the political crisis is paralleled by a humanitarian crisis that requires more immediate and direct international attention. Donors face a dilemma. On the one hand, the humanitarian imperative raises difficult questions about the sustainability of international strategies based on coercive diplomacy and economic isolation, which have greatly limited international assistance to Myanmar. On the other hand, there is widespread concern that re-engagement, even in the form of limited humanitarian assistance, could undermine the quest for political change and long-term improvements.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Burma, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar
475. Capturing the Moment: Sudan's Peace Process in the Balance
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Sudan's window of opportunity threatens to become a missed opportunity if the peace process is not revitalised in the near future. Escalation of fighting around the oil fields, increasing use by the government of helicopter gunships against civilian as well as military targets, and indecision surrounding the nature of wider international engagement all put at risk Sudan's best chance for peace since the latest phase of civil war began nearly nineteen years ago. The parties continue to signal that they are ready to negotiate seriously. The international community, and in particular the United States, must seize this opportunity to revitalise the peace process before the two sides recommit themselves to resolving Africa's longest conflict on the battlefield.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States, Sudan, and North Africa
476. God, Oil and Country: Changing the Logic of War in Sudan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Sudan's long civil war rages on, claiming a terrible toll of death and displacement .While the decades of destruction are too complex to trace back to a single source, several forces propel the war, principally disputes over religion , resources , governance and self-determination . Concentration of power in a small group of competing elites that has not granted the majority of Sudanese broader economic and political rights has only deepened the country's considerable geographic, religious cultural and ethnic divisions.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Sudan and North Africa
477. New Balkan Policy Needed
- Author:
- Robert D. Greenberg
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- In the first months after the NATO-led Kosovo Force (KFOR) entered Kosovo in June 1999 and the Kosovar Albanian refugees returned to their homes, the minority Serbs and Gypsies became the victims of Albanian revenge attacks. The few Serbs who have remained in Kosovo live in scattered enclaves under the protection of KFOR troops. Nevertheless, sporadic violence has continued to erupt, including the bus bombing in February 2001 killing Serbs heading to a religious event. KFOR has been unable to stop the violence from spilling over Kosovo's borders to Macedonia and to Serbia's Presevo Valley region, which has a sizable ethnic Albanian minority. Meanwhile, Macedonia has closed its border with Kosovo, raising the likelihood of a serious economic crisis in Kosovo that could induce further instability there.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- United States, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Balkans, and Albania
478. Russia's Southern Neighbors
- Author:
- Aleksandar D. Jovovic
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- The Institute for the study of Diplomacy hosted the spring 2001 meetings of the Schlesinger Working Group on the topic of Russian foreign policy towards its neighbors in Central Asia and the Caucasus. The potential for further conflict along Russia's periphery is real. Russia (experiencing an economic upswing and more assertive political leadership) is mired in a series of border problems as well as unresolved internal security challenges in Chechnya and continues to be a central actor in the entire Caucasus region. The civil war in Afghanistan continues to export Islamic extremism to Russia's important Central Asian neighbors. If a dramatic security downturn took shape in any of these borderlands, it would test the competence, political will, and strategic common sense of Putin and his team. Russia's government has already demonstrated its willingness to charge headlong into an internal conflict, and Putin's initial popularity has soared as a result. To provide a starting point for the discussion, the working group examined the following issues: External political and security challenges facing Russia in the near to medium term. Russia's interests and willingness to remain engaged in developments along its frontier. Prospects for strategic surprises and unanticipated events along Russia's southern border. Implications of Russia's behavior and region- al developments on US interests and capabilities.
- Topic:
- Security and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, and Chechnya
479. Indonesia — Kalimantan Consequences
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- President Aburrahman Wahid yesterday visited Central Kalimantan, the scene of violent clashes between local Dayaks and Madurese settlers. The crisis has its origins in the ill-conceived transmigration policies of the Suharto era. Despite its localised and specific nature, there is a significant risk that it will embolden other outer-island communities to move more decisively against non-indigenous sections of local populations. This would place further strains on the thinly-stretched security forces. With Wahid's authority already weakened, the crisis in Central Kalimantan will strengthen the position of hard-line elements in the military who are opposed to the president. Nonetheless, Megawati's ability to gain political capital will be limited by the fact that she herself has a leading role in formulating policy towards the regions.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Migration, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Southeast Asia
480. Middle East — Arafat Manoeuvres
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Senior Palestinian officials this week rejected US President Bill Clinton's peace proposals. All the Palestinian factions have now rejected the proposals designed to end the conflict with Israel. This is a sign of the overwhelming domestic pressure Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is under. However, his position remains one of conditional acceptance as he awaits further US interpretations and clarifications. Arafat's conditional acceptance of the US proposals is an attempt to improve his diplomatic position. He hopes to make use of the enhanced Arab engagement in the Palestinian-Israeli peace process to improve on the terms of a future peace agreement. This will be essential if he is to win domestic approval of any deal.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine