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242. Chechnya Weekly: Volume 8, Issue 1
- Author:
- Andrei Smirnov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- On January 3, a shootout between gunmen and police in the Dagestani capital of Makhachkala left a police officer and two local residents wounded and one gunman dead. Citing Dagestan's Interior Ministry, ITAR-TASS reported that the incident took place around 5PM Moscow time on Ganidov Prospekt in Makhachkala, when police tried to stop a Zhiguli car for a document check and someone inside the vehicle fired on them. One of the gunmen was killed in the ensuing gun battle while the three others in the car managed to escape. One of the escaping gunmen may have been wounded. Interfax quoted a Makhachkala police official as saying that two local residents were slightly injured in the gunfight and that the life of the wounded policeman, shot in the leg, was not in danger.
- Topic:
- Security and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Moscow
243. Breaking the Kosovo Stalemate: Europe's Responsibility
- Publication Date:
- 08-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The preferred strategy of the European Union (EU) and the U.S. to bring Kosovo to supervised independence through the United Nations Security Council has failed, following Russia's declared intention to veto. With Kosovo Albanians increasingly restive and likely soon to declare unilateral independence in the absence of a credible alternative, Europe risks a new bloody and destabilising conflict. To avoid chaos on its doorstep, the EU and its member states must now accept the primary responsibility for bringing Kosovo to supervised independence.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans
244. Sri Lanka's Muslims: Caught in the Crossfire
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Throughout much of the 25-year Sri Lankan conflict, attention has focused on the confrontation between the majority Sinhalese and the minority Tamils. The views of the country's Muslims, who are 8 per cent of the population and see themselves as a separate ethnic group, have largely been ignored. Understanding their role in the conflict and addressing their political aspirations are vital if there is to be a lasting peace settlement. Muslims need to be part of any renewed peace process but with both the government and LTTE intent on continuing the conflict, more immediate steps should be taken to ensure their security and political involvement. These include control of the Karuna faction, more responsive local and national government, improved human rights mechanisms and a serious political strategy that recognises minority concerns in the east.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Sri Lanka
245. Indonesian Papua: A Local Perspective on the Conflict
- Publication Date:
- 07-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Most outside observers see only one dimension of conflict in Papua – the Indonesian government vs. the independence movement – but it is much more complex. Tensions among tribal groups and between indigenous Papuans and non-Papuan settlers, as well as competition over political power and access to spoils at the district and sub-district levels, are also important. The issues vary substantially from one region to another. National and international attention has tended to focus on the northern coast and the central highlands, with relatively little on the districts in the south, which have long felt excluded from politics in the Papuan capital, Jayapura.
- Topic:
- Environment and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Asia, Papua, and Jayapura
246. Kosovo: What Can Go Wrong?
- Author:
- Daniel Serwer and Yll Bajraktari
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- At the end of the NATO/Yugoslavia war almost eight years ago, the Albanian-majority Serbian province of Kosovo was removed from Serbia's governance and placed temporarily under a United Nations protectorate, administered by the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). Last summer, UN Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari was tasked by the Security Council with resolving the question of Kosovo's future status, with support from U.S. and European Union envoys (Frank Wisner and Stefan Lehne respectively). Ahtisaari's effort is now drawing to a close. He has delivered to both Pristina and Belgrade a plan that explicitly allows a great deal of protection for Serbs and their religious monuments in Kosovo but implicitly ends Belgrade's sovereignty. His plan opens the prospect of a sovereign and independent Kosovo under continuing international supervision. It is anticipated that Ahtisaari will take his plan, with some revisions, to the UN Security Council this month. This USIPeace Briefing discusses potential drivers of conflict in Kosovo during the status decision and in the period thereafter. These drivers of conflict arise from the international community, the Kosovo Albanians, Serbia and the Kosovo Serbs. They have the potential not only to make Kosovo dysfunctional but also to destabilize the region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, NATO, Ethnic Conflict, United Nations, and War
- Political Geography:
- Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans
247. New Strategies for Darfur
- Author:
- David Smock
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- On April 4, the U.S. Institute of Peace convened its Sudan Peace Forum to discuss new strategies for dealing with the ongoing crisis in Darfur. This USIPeace Briefing summarizes the discussion, which was conducted on a not-for-attribution basis. It was written by David Smock, the vice president of USIP's Center for Mediation and Conflict Resolution. It does not represent the views of USIP, which does not advocate specific policies.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United States
248. Political Progress in Iraq During the Surge
- Author:
- Timothy Carney
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The military surge that was launched in February 2007 has improved the security situation in Baghdad and adjacent regions. It has curbed sectarian violence in the capital and reduced the freedom of action and the support base of insurgents and terrorists in the central governorates. The rationale for the surge was to provide an opportunity for political agreements to be negotiated among Iraqis, but political progress has been stalled and has not matched the security improvements. A political settlement is essential for sustaining the security gains and for longer- term stability. Despite the declaration of a national reconciliation plan by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki in June 2006, by the fall of 2007 only limited progress had been made toward reconciling the differences between the political groups and forging a national agenda. The dominance of sectarian political groups has fueled polarization, and the inability of the government and Parliament to adopt crucial legislation is a measure of continuing distrust between the groups. Serious political dialogue between the sect- based parties has proved difficult and the results are limited. At the same time intra-sectarian rivalries are increasing, particularly in the southern governorates, where the Sadris and the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq vie for political and economic control of the region. Iraqi institutions have lost ground in the past year. Iraqi ministers from Sunni, Shia, and secular groups have withdrawn from the cabinet, adversely affecting the performance of the government. The sectarian blocs that entered Parliament in December 2005 have lost their cohesiveness. The Shia United Iraqi Alliance has unraveled, and the Sunni Tawafuq coalition is strained. The emergence of tribal forces in Anbar governorate presents opportunities and challenges to the Sunnis and the Shia alike. As the sectarian blocs weaken and the Anbar tribes seek a political role, new alliances are beginning to emerge, and some may succeed in crossing sectarian and regional divides. The debate in Washington has been restricted to the level and duration of U.S. troop presence in Iraq. In the coming months, the debate should turn to means of supporting the political process and strengthening governance in Iraq as a path to stability. Bottom-up approaches to reconciliation and accommodation do not obviate the need for a broader political settlement. The United States should support a sustained international mediation effort led by the UN Security Council resulting in an Iraqi compact endorsed by Iraq's neighbors and the international comm unity. Iraqi efforts to develop cross-sectarian political alliances and national platforms need to be encouraged. The incorporation of the Anbar tribes into national politics is important to sustaining security gains. A competent national government in Baghdad is essential to the long-term stability of Iraq. A weak government will be unable to ensure the internal and external security of the country or manage revenues. More effort and resources are needed to strengthen the competence and effectiveness of the Iraqi government.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
249. Pakistan: The Myth of an Islamist Peril
- Author:
- Frédéric Grare
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The risk of an Islamist takeover in Pakistan is a myth invented by the Pakistani military to consolidate its hold on power. In fact, religious political parties and militant organizations are manipulated by the Pakistani Army to achieve its own objectives, domestically and abroad. The army, not the Islamists, is the real source of insecurity on the subcontinent.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and Asia
250. The Jamestown Foundation: Eurasia Daily Monitor
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has decided not to disband parliament. Instead, he nominated Viktor Yanukovych, who lost the presidential election to him in December 2004, for prime minister. These were the only two options that Yushchenko faced after the Orange coalition between his Our Ukraine bloc and the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc fell apart in early July, and the left-of-center majority of Yanukovych' Party of Regions, the Socialists, and the Communists nominated Yanukovych for prime minister. Our Ukraine is now joining the majority; Tymoshenko, having dismissed the compromise between Yushchenko and Yanukovych as “betrayal,” goes into the opposition.
- Topic:
- Security and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, and Ukraine