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391. An Anchor in the Mud

Author:
Leon Aron
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
For almost two centuries—since Alexander Pushkin's masterpieces laid the foundation—Russian literature has persisted in addressing the core issues and dilemmas of human existence, taking humanity's measure, and explaining Russia and Russians to themselves and the world. Even during the Soviet era, when virtually all of Russia's finest writers and poets were exiled, killed, imprisoned, savagely censored, or forbidden to publish, the tradition lived in underground samizdat, manuscripts smuggled abroad, and in the state-run literary magazines of the “liberal” persuasion, especially during political thaws.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

392. Structure and Context in the Study of Post-Soviet Russia

Author:
Leon Aron
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The Berlin Wall fell eleven years ago, and nine years have passed since Boris Yeltsin launched the Russian economic revolution by abolishing state control over prices. Although minuscule in historic terms, the time elapsed still furnishes a wealth of data for a provisional analysis of the key factors that shaped the political, economic, and social character of post-Communist nations. The same structural variables may help gauge the future—at least in the short to medium term.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Berlin

393. Natural Resources, Human Capital, and Growth

Author:
Nancy Birdsall, Thomas Pinckney, and Richard Sabot
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In this paper, we present evidence that among developing countries, those that are resource-abundant invest less in education. We then discuss the economic processes behind this evidence. We describe a virtuous circle in which rising private returns to human capital and other assets lead to increased work effort and higher rates of private investment immediately, including among the poor, and generate higher productivity and lower inequality in the future. With resource abundance, however, governments are tempted to move away from the policies that generate this virtuous circle. Dutch Disease and related effects tend to lower the rate of return to the agricultural and human capital investments available to the poor. Resource rents accumulate in the hands of the government, and/or a small number of businessmen, further reducing incentives to invest. Staple-trap effects lead to the subsidization of capital, thereby taxing labor. The labor market in the resulting capital-intensive economy offers little benefit for moderate levels of education. The government may try to assuage the poor by directing some proportion of resource rents to populist programs that create new fiscal burdens but that do not enhance productivity. In short, resource abundance tends to break the virtuous circle linking education, growth and inequality in several places: the choice of development strategy, the level of inequality, the lack of incentives for investment in education, and the creation of a welfare state. We illustrate this breakdown by contrasting the cases of Korea and Brazil, and, since resource abundance need not be destiny, we conclude with policy lessons for resource-abundant developing economies.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Emerging Markets, Government, Political Economy, and Third World
Political Geography:
Brazil and Korea

394. WTO Report Card III: Globalization and Developing Countries

Author:
Aaron Lukas
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The “anti-globalization coalition” that paraded through the streets of Seattle in November and stormed police barricades in Washington, D.C., in April contends that international trade and investment are “lose-lose” propositions. On the one hand, organized labor argues that low-wage workers in developing countries will gain employment at the expense of American workers. On the other hand, self-appointed advocates of the developing world claim that trade with and investment from Western countries lead only to exploitation and continued poverty abroad. Given that negative view of globalization, it is not surprising that anti-trade activists are calling to “shrink or sink” the World Trade Organization.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
Political Geography:
America and Washington

395. El TLCAN y la Inversióon Extranjera Directa: El Nuevo Escenario

Author:
Arturo Borja
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
This working paper looks at the changes that have taken place in North America in foreign direct investment (FDI) after NAFTA. The first part analyses the regime defined in the treaty. The main four principles of this regime are: "national treatment", the prohibition of performance requirements for investors, a more liberal norm for foreign ownership of firms, institutional procedures for the solution of disputes. The rule of origin is identified as the most important measure for non-North American investors. The second part offers an empirical evaluation of changes in FDI flows during the first five years of NAFTA. It compares that period with the five years previous to the implementation of the agreement. The findings show a significant increase in FDI going to Mexico, Canada and the United States. At the same time, there have been changes in the distribution of these flows within the region. More FDI is going now to the United States than to Mexico, and investments between Canada and the U.S. are growing at a higher rate than those between Mexico and the U.S. The paper also identifies different patterns between Mexico and Canada. The increases in Canadian investments suggests that Canadian multinationals are adapting their strategies to the new conditions created by NAFTA.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico

396. International Explanations for Stock Market Opening

Author:
Susan Minushkin
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:
Most studies on financial market liberalization focus on wealthy countries, emphasizing international, economic or domestic political factors as explanations for financial liberalization or have specified the conditions under which one factor dominates in causal significance. They have not tested whether their arguments are applicable to the middle-income countries that comprise the 'emerging markets.' Focusing on these countries, this paper seeks to isolate and test a series of propositions derived from international approaches. The main contribution of this article is to provide some first-cut testing of the existing hypotheses, as a guide for other researchers in terms of the timing, pace and style of financial opening in middle-income countries.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance

397. Does FDI Increase Firm Value in Emerging Markets?

Author:
Wi Saeng Kim
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper conducts an event study for a sample of firms listed on the Korean Stock Exchange. The study finds that positive and statistically significant abnormal returns occur around the announcement date of foreign direct investments. This finding suggests that security prices in the Korean stock market do reflect firm-specific information, and that FDI by Korean MNCs are, on average, value increasing investment decisions. The finding is consistent with the studies of Doukas and Travlos (1988) and Fatemi (1984) which found similar results for U.S. MNCs.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, and Korea

398. CIAO: Eastern Europe/EU — Transition Traps

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
There has been a large differential in foreign direct investment receipts between the front-runners in the Central European applicant countries and laggards. The accession process itself has exacerbated this bifurcation, raising questions over EU policy towards the applicants and the implications for the region's long-term stability. Accession prospects appear to induce virtuous cycles for the front-runners while potentially trapping the laggards. Moreover, the latter are faced with difficult choices between long-term EU conditionality and more immediate transition imperatives, which are not always compatible
Topic:
Emerging Markets, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

399. International — Capital Flight

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Not all capital outflows from developing countries should be characterised as capital flight; some are simply the analogues of outward FDI and portfolio diversification in the more advanced economies. Nonetheless, a substantial proportion is classic flight capital, linked to tax evasion or criminal activity, and transferred abroad via misinvoicing and complex financial transactions. Capital flight leads to a significant loss of investment in the most affluent developing countries, and a crippling one in the poorest. However, staunching the flow is likely to prove extremely difficult. It will require greater economic stability and institutional certainty in the source countries, and more rigorous tax enforcement and cooperation in the destination states.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Third World

400. East Europe—Bullish Markets

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Gone are the days when the large investment banks defined their global reach in terms of the emerging markets of Eastern Europe. Indeed, the emerging markets label is fading away in favour of new 'global' buzzwords. However, just one year on from the emerging market crisis that threatened the bull of the world financial market, is this rethinking of the emerging markets premature?
Topic:
Economics and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe