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201. Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?

Author:
Eswar Prasad and Marcos Chamon
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
From 1995 to 2005, the average urban household saving rate in China rose by 7 percentage points, to about one quarter of disposable income. We use household-level data to explain why households are postponing consumption despite rapid income growth. Tracing cohorts over time indicates a virtual absence of consumption smoothing over the life cycle. Saving rates have increased across all demographic groups although the age profile of savings has an unusual pattern in recent years, with younger and older households having relatively high saving rates. We argue that these patterns are best explained by the rising private burden of expenditures on housing, education, and health care. These effects and precautionary motives may have been amplified by financial underdevelopment, as reflected in constraints on borrowing against future income and low returns on financial assets.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Emerging Markets, and Health
Political Geography:
China and Israel

202. Foreign Trade Specialization and International Competitiveness Of Greece, Portugal, Spain, Turkey and the EU 12

Author:
Bahri Yilmaz
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The main purpose of this paper is to examine the foreign trade patterns and/or specialization in foreign trade of three EU member countries – namely, Greece, Portugal, Spain, and candidate country Turkey – and to compare the foreign trade patterns with the EU/12 in the period 1995- 2005. The paper is divided into seven main sections. The first section summarizes the export and import developments of the countries in question between the years 1995 and 2005. The second section describes the methodology and data sets. Empirical analysis is found in the third section, where in five subsections we investigate international competitiveness and trade specialization using different indices. In the fourth part of the research we compare the dynamic products in world exports with dynamic products in the exports of the four countries. The final section gives brief conclusions drawn from the results and considers the future position of Turkey within the enlarged EU. In this research we do not intend to explain why the foreign trade patterns are different in the considered countries. We simply try to show whether and where there are any differences in foreign trade specialisation among the four countries and EU/12.
Topic:
International Relations, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Spain, Portugal, and South Sudan

203. Energy Interests and Alliances: China, America and Africa

Author:
Danila Bochkarev, Angelica Austin, and Willem van der Geest
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
In the strategic policy communities of both the United States and China, there has been a knee-jerk blurring between competition in commerce between U.S. and Chinese energy firms and the potential for strategic competition by one country to deny resources to the other. A senior State Department official has described this sort of reaction as “exaggerated”. But the suspicion is there and it is ill-founded. It serves the interests of neither country. On the contrary, as this EWI Policy Paper suggests, energy security can become a rallying point in an otherwise difficult relationship. The two countries are now intensifying their interest and activities not just in each other's domestic energy sector but also in each other's role in a system of global energy security.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, Political Economy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and China

204. The End of History? - Certainly Not Through Asia's Eyes

Author:
William Marmon
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
European Affairs
Institution:
The European Institute
Abstract:
According to Kishore Mahbubani, a strategist in Singapore, the West – especially Europe – has presumed too long that Asia is and will remain “dormant.” As Marmon explains, Mahbubani is perhaps the most articulate exponent of a widely-held view in Asia: that Westerners are dangerously behind the curve in reading the major trends of global change.
Topic:
Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Asia

205. Can the West Save Africa?

Author:
William Easterly
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The last few years have seen unprecedented attention to an attempt by Western governments to rapidly develop Africa. British Prime Minister Tony Blair called at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2005 for "a big, big push forward" in Africa to end poverty, financed by an increase in foreign aid. Tony Blair commissioned a Report on Africa, which released its findings in March 2005, likewise calling for a "big push." Gordon Brown and Tony Blair put the cause of ending poverty in Africa at the top of the agenda of the G-8 Summit in Gleneagles, Scotland in July 2005. In the 2005 summit at Gleneagles, Scotland, the G-8 agreed to double foreign aid to Africa, from $25 billion a year to $50 billion to finance the big push, as well as to forgive the African aid loans contracted during previous attempts at a "big push." Two years later, Germany again made Africa an important item on the agenda of the G-8 summit it hosted in Heiligendamm in June 2007. There, the G-8 again reiterated the promises made in 2005. Japan pledged to double its own aid to Africa in May 2008 over the next five years. Most recently, the G8 Summit in Japan in July 2008 agreed: "We are firmly committed to working to fulfill our commitments on Official Development Assistance made at Gleneagles, and reaffirmed at Heiligendamm, including increasing...ODA to Africa by US$ 25 billion a year by 2010."
Topic:
Development and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Africa, Japan, United Kingdom, and Germany

206. Four “Poverty Traps” Are Part of Conundrum for Foreign Aid

Author:
Jim Kolbe
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
European Affairs
Institution:
The European Institute
Abstract:
Muddled thinking is dangerous for international development. For one thing, cost benefit arguments neglect the high price exacted by failed states. For another, as noted in an important new book, The Bottom Billion, some countries are trapped by special circumstances that need special remedies.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Emerging Markets, Humanitarian Aid, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

207. Shifting Financial Flows to Low-Income Countries: From Official Aid to Private Finance?

Author:
Lotte Thomsen
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Within the last decades, the share of government aid in overall external financial flows to developing countries has decreased. It is estimated that between 75 and 85% of all current financial flows to developing countries derive from a variety of private sources, including remittances, investment, commercial loans and charity, compared to some 65% in 1990 (see also Jones, 2007). Similarly, it has been estimated that total private flows reached 647 billion USD in 2006, which is roughly four times their level in the 1980s. This may imply a diminished or different role for official financing from 'traditional' donors, at least in relative terms (Dorsey et al, 2008; Steer, 2008). Yet, it has been pointed out (Steer, 2008) that the size, impact and relation of private financial flows to public flows are not fully understood, not least because monitoring systems in many developing countries are rudimentary, and e.g. FDI widely underestimated. Simultaneously with this increase in private finance to developing countries, the number of both private and public aid sources, including bilateral donor channels, multilateral organizations, funds and programmes, have been growing so that they now are higher in number than the number of developing countries they are created to assist (IDA, 2007).
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, Government, and Non-Governmental Organization

208. The Asian Financial Crisis, Uphill Flow of Capital, and Global Imbalances: Evidence from A Micro Study

Author:
Brahima Coulibaly and Jonathan Millar
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This study assesses the role of the Asian Önancial crisis of the late 1990s in the emergence and persistence of the large current account surpluses across non-China emerging Asia, which have been a signiÖcant counterpart to the U.S. current account deÖcit. Using panel data encompassing nearly 3,750 Örms, we trace the current account surpluses to a marked and broad-based decline in corporate expenditures on Öxed investment in the aftermath of the crisis that cuts across a wide spectrum of countries, industries, and Örms. The lower corporate spending in turn depressed aggregate investment rates, widened the saving-investment gap, and allowed the region to turn into a net exporter of capital. We then consider the factors behind this reduction in postcrisis corporate investment. While weaker Örm-level fundamentals in the postcrisis period seem to explain part of the drop in investment rates, ongoing re-structuring owing to large debts accumulated and excess investment undertaken in the run-up to the crisis has been the main source of restraint postcrisis corporate investment. The results suggest that even after a decade, the e§ect of the Önancial crisis is still a§ecting corporate investment decisions in emerging Asia, and that as the restructuring completes its course, investment rates will likely rise to contribute to a gradual reduction in the regionís current account surpluses.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Economic Inequality, and Investment
Political Geography:
Asia

209. Signing Away The Future: How trade and investment agreements between rich and poor countries undermine development

Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The quiet advance of trade and investment agreements between rich and poor countries threatens to deny developing countries a favourable foothold in the global economy. Powerful countries, led by the USA and the European Union (EU), are pursuing regional and bilateral free trade agreements with unprecedented vigour. This is happening without the fanfare of global summitry and international press coverage. Around 25 developing countries have now signed free trade agreements with developed countries, and more than 100 are engaged in negotiations. An average of two bilateral investment treaties are signed every week. Virtually no country, however poor, has been left out.
Topic:
Emerging Markets and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

210. The Role and Development of Technology-Intensive Suppliers in Resource-Based Economies: A Literature Review

Author:
Carlos Torres Fuchslocher
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Although primary industries are important to developing countries, they have been largely unable to contribute to rapid growth. Systematically strengthening the development of local technology-intensive suppliers (t-suppliers), however, may contribute to both reinforcing the industrial base and supporting the competitiveness of primary production. Indeed, the development of t-suppliers has been common in those resource-based economies which achieved a high level of development (Scandinavia, Canada, Australia). This paper explores the role of t-suppliers in natural resource-based economies. It outlines a theoretical framework for the analysis of the factors which foster or constrain their development and defines areas for an effective promotion of t-suppliers. The proposed model of analysis distinguishes between factors influencing the development of t-suppliers on the level of the main industry (MI), the level of supplier firms or firm-level and the level of external determinants with special reference to industrial policy factors.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Third World
Political Geography:
Canada, Australia, and Scandinavia