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141. The G20: Engine of Asian Regionalism?

Author:
Hugo Dobson
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
As a result of the emergence of the G20 as the self‐appointed “premier forum for international economic cooperation”, Asia's expanded participation in G‐summitry has attracted considerable attention. As original G7 member Japan is joined by Australia, China, Indonesia, India and South Korea, this has given rise to another alphanumeric configuration of the Asian 6 (A6). Resulting expectations are that membership in the G20 will impact Asian regionalism as the A6 are forced into coordination and cooperation in response to the G20's agenda and commitments. However, by highlighting the concrete behaviours and motivations of the individual A6 in the G20 summits so far, this paper stands in contrast to the majority of the predominantly normative extant literature. It highlights divergent agendas amongst the A6 as regards the future of the G20 and discusses the high degree of competition over their identities and roles therein. This divergence and competition can be seen across a range of other behaviours including responding to the norm of internationalism in promoting global governance and maintaining the status quo and national interest, in addition to claiming a regional leadership role and managing bilateral relationships with the US.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Indonesia, India, Asia, South Korea, and Australia

142. The Future of Convergence

Author:
Dani Rodrik
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Novelists have a better track record than economists at foretelling the future. Consider then Gary Shteyngart's timely comic novel “Super Sad True Love Story” (Random House, 2010), which provides a rather graphic vision of what lies in store for the world economy. The novel takes place in the near future and is set against the backdrop of a United States that lies in economic and political ruin. The country's bankrupt economy is ruled with a firm hand by the IMF from its new Parthenon-shaped headquarters in Singapore. China and sovereign wealth funds have parceled America's most desirable real estate among themselves. Poor people are designated as LNWI (“low net worth individual s”) and are being pushed into ghettoes. Even skilled Americans are desperate to acquire residency status in foreign lands. (A degree in econometrics helps a lot, as it turns out). Ivy League colleges have adopted the names of their Asian partners and yuan-backed dollars are the only safe currency.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, Sovereign Wealth Funds, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, and Singapore

143. Industries in 2012: A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit

Author:
Steven Leslie
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Business executives are sour about 2012. However, they are much more negative about the prospects for the global economy than for their own industries, and especially for their own companies. These are the headline findings from a global survey of more than 900 corporate decisionmakers about their expectations for 2012.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

144. Multilateralism in Trade at Risk: Should and Can we Rescue the Doha Round?

Author:
Jagdish Bhagwati, Pascal Lamy, Michael Moore, and Leif Pagrotsky
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
This World Leaders Forum program will feature an introduction by: - Pascal Lamy, Director-General of the World Trade Organization Followed by a panel discussion with: - Jagdish Bhagwati, University Professor of Economics Law, Columbia University; Economic Policy Adviser to Director General of GATT (1991-1993) - Michael Moore, Former Director General of World Trade Organization and Prime Minister of New Zealand; Ambassador of New Zealand to the United States - Leif Pagrotsky, Swedish Minister for Trade(1997-2004); currently member of the Swedish Parliament and of the Executive Board of the Social Democratic Party.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, International Affairs, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and New Zealand

145. Asia and Global Financial Governance

Author:
C. Randall Henning and Mohsin S. Khan
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Currently, Asia's influence in global financial governance is not consistent with its weight in the world economy. This paper examines the role of Asia in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Group of Twenty (G-20). It looks in particular at how the relationship between East Asian countries and the IMF has evolved since the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 and outlines how Asian regional arrangements for crisis financing and economic surveillance could constructively interact with the IMF in the future. It also considers ways to enhance the effectiveness of Asian countries in the G-20 process.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Israel and Asia

146. Currencies Aren't the Problem

Author:
Raguram G. Rajan
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The current debate over quantitative easing overlooks the important question of domestic economic strategy in both the developed and developing world. Put simply, consumers in industrial economies buy too much, and those in developing ones, too little.
Topic:
Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
United States and China

147. The Post-Washington Consensus: Development after the Crisis

Author:
Francis Fukuyama and Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
A clear shift in the development agenda is underway. Traditionally, an agenda generated in the developed world was implemented in—and, indeed, often imposed on—the developing world. The United States, Europe, and Japan will continue to be significant sources of economic resources and ideas, but the emerging markets will become significant players. Countries such as Brazil, China, India, and South Africa will be both donors and recipients of resources for development and of best practices for how to use them. In fact, development has never been something that the rich bestowed on the poor but rather something the poor achieved for themselves. It appears that the Western powers are finally waking up to this truth in light of a financial crisis that, for them, is by no means over.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Europe, India, South Africa, and Brazil

148. Africa Capacity Indicators 2011: Capacity Development in Fragile States

Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
Africa's recent development performance has generated optimistic talk that the Continent will soon join the league of “emerging markets.” While Africa has in fact, over the past decade, achieved significant gains in restoring macroeconomic stability and robust economic growth, thereby breaking with and starting to tackle the economic stagnation, debt crisis and severe poverty of the previous three decades, these developments are uneven and they need to be sustained.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, Markets, Fragile States, Economic growth, Capacity, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa

149. Sectoral Productivity Trend: Convergence Islands in Oceans of Divergence

Author:
Fulvio Castellacci, Gaaitzen J. de Vries, and Bart Los
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In their influential study on productivity growth at the sector-level, Bernard and Jones (1996, BJ) observed convergence of aggregate labor productivity levels in 14 highly developed countries in 1970-1987. They also found evidence that this could be attributed to convergence in services productivity rather than in manufacturing. The main question this paper addresses is whether this result can be generalized to a broader set of countries. Several strands of growth theory suggest that thresholds with regard to a variety of issues can lead to multiple growth regimes, which are likely to lead to very heterogeneous patterns of convergence and divergence. To analyze this, we use econometric techniques that explicitly allow for identification of parameter heterogeneity (quantile regressions and quantile smoothing splines), both with regard to initial conditions and to performance conditional on these initial productivity levels. BJ's data are extended in several dimensions. The recently developed sectoral dataset we use spans the period 1970-2004 and covers 49 countries, including many developing countries. Overall, our findings suggest that convergence as found by BJ only applies to limited groups of country-sectors ('convergence islands'), whereas the biggest parts of our sample spaces can be considered as 'oceans of divergence'.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets

150. Closing the Technology Gap?

Author:
Fulvio Castellacci
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper focuses on the dimensions shaping the dynamics of technology. We present a model where the knowledge stock of a country grows over time as a function of three main factors: its innovation intensity, its technological infrastructures and its human capital. The latter two variables contribute to determine the absorptive capacity of a country as well as its innovative ability. Based on this theoretical framework, we carry out an empirical analysis that investigates the dynamics of technology in a large sample of developed and developing economies in the last two-decade period, and studies its relationships with the growth of income per capita in a dynamic panel model setting. The results indicate that the cross-country distributions of technological infrastructures and human capital have experienced a process of convergence, whereas the innovative intensity is characterized by increasing polarization between rich and poor economies. Thus, while the conditions for catching up have generally improved, the increasing innovation gap represents a major factor behind the observed differences in income per capita.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Science and Technology, and Infrastructure