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5281. India/Pakistan — Peace Pipe

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
India and Iran have proposed the construction of a natural gas pipeline connection. While the project would be a major engineering achievement, the principal challenge will be gaining Islamabad's consent for it to traverse Pakistani territory. Pakistan's parlous relations with Tehran and Delhi, the latter little improved by last weekend's summit, will make this difficult.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Asia

5282. United States — Downturn Dilemmas

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Despite the continuing fragility of the economy, prompt policy action and the resilience of the US consumer are likely to prevent a full-blown recession, thereby shaping the probable path of the US economic downturn. Therefore, the risk of negative balance sheets and potential inflationary problems could arise from too rapid a recovery.
Topic:
Economics and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

5283. Argentina — Federal Stand-Off

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Opposition Peronist party governors and trade unions this week broke off institutional dialogue with the federal government over recent economic measures and pending debts. The fourteen governors in question, their minds on mid-term legislative elections, believe that the political cost of supporting the government will be greater than the cost of being seen to scupper its initiatives, and that opposition constitutes a more effective means of pressing their demands. Their decision puts the prospects for Argentina's economic recovery at risk. The Peronist governors' decision to distance themselves from the government both reflects and compounds the weakness of the federal administration. While their new approach to force concessions from the government could ease social problems in the short term, there is a danger that it will do so at the expense of economic recovery and political stability in the longer term.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
South America

5284. International — Weather Derivatives

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Weather derivatives trading is undergoing exponential growth. The current size of the weather derivatives market is 8 billion dollars, and it is expected to grow to at least 300 billion dollars within a few years. The opportunity to reduce exposure to natural risks will be exploited by large corporate groups and, eventually, smaller players too. It is important for the future development of the weather market that players have confidence in their own ability to determine fair prices, and that of the market to deliver these. Such confidence will encourage liquidity in the market from the end-users. However, traditional derivatives exchanges may find it difficult to obtain volume (and hence liquidity) in weather markets.
Topic:
Economics and Science and Technology

5285. Japan — LDP Prognosis

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will elect a new president on April 24. Given that the LDP is the largest party in parliament, its president will also become the country's prime minister. While the media and the public are demanding genuine leadership from the government, the LDP's structure militates strongly against forthright policy-making.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Japan and East Asia

5286. India — Arms Scandal

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
On March 15, Defence Minister George Fernandes resigned. Fernandes' resignation follows last week's revelations about cash-for-influence exchanges with journalists posing as arms dealers. Although the Union coalition government is likely to survive the affair, its prestige has been severely damaged. The most serious potential of the Tehelka scandal is the government's loss of the moral authority to forge ahead with its economic reform programme. Opponents of liberalisation, both on the right and the left, are attempting to draw political capital from the affair.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

5287. Japan — Monetary Easing

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced a new approach to monetary policy which effectively targets money supply growth and inflation on March 19. The BoJ has indicated that the immediate consequence of its measures to boost financial system liquidity will be to push short-term interest rates back to zero or virtually zero. It has pledged to maintain rates at this level until deflationary pressures are reversed and the consumer price index becomes positive. The BoJ's actions have the potential to lead to a revival in share prices, corporate activity and bank lending. If the initiative results in a sustained weakening of the yen, the economy may also benefit from stronger export growth. However, the effect of all of these measures will be blunted unless they are accompanied by the structural reforms which the government has for some time foreshadowed, but which have suffered from delay and indecision.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan and East Asia

5288. Linking Democracy and Development: An Idea for the Times

Author:
Lynda DeWitt
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
GOVERNMENT DOWNSIZING, new thinking about development, conducive host-country situations, and strong mission leadership are some of the most important factors prompting USAID staff to link democracy and governance (DG) activities with those of the Agency's other strategic goals. As a result, democratic principles such as participation, accountability, transparency, and responsiveness are now being incorporated into USAID's environmental, health, education, and economic growth efforts.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Economics, Government, and Politics

5289. The Role Of Transition Assistance: The Case Of Kosovo

Author:
Glenn Slocum
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
The Center for Development Information and Evaluation (CDIE) has responsibility for conducting Agency-wide evaluations of USAID assistance topics of interest to USAID managers. In 2000, USAID initiated an evaluation of the role of transition assistance, with a specific emphasis on the role and activities of the Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI). Transition assistance, as used here, refers to the OTI-administered programs providing flexible, short-term responses to help advance peaceful, democratic change in conflict-prone countries. This assistance is usually provided during the two-year critical period after conflict when countries are most vulnerable to renewed conflict or instability.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Kosovo

5290. The Role Of Transition Assistance: The Case Of East Timor

Author:
Glenn Slocum and Jean DuRette
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
The Center for Development Information and Evaluation (CDIE) has responsibility for conducting Agency-wide evaluations on USAID assistance topics of interest to USAID managers. In 2000, USAID initiated an evaluation on the general role of transition assistance and specifically on the role and activities of the Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI) in the Bureau of Humanitarian Response (BHR).
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia