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3171. Afghanistan: Seeds of Hope

Author:
David Johnson
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In 2000, an overwhelming 97 percent of Afghan girls did not attend school, and today only about 20 percent are literate. Tens of thousands of Afghan girls are now attending school for the first time in years.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Middle East

3172. Net Foreign Assets and Imperfect Pass-through: The Consumption Real Exchange Rate Anomaly

Author:
Jorge D. Selaive and Vicente Tuesta
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
An unresolved issue in international macroeconomics is the apparent lack of risk-sharing across countries, which contradicts the prediction of models based on the assumption of complete markets. We assess the importance of financial frictions in this issue by constructing an incomplete market model with stationary net foreign assets (NFA) and imperfect pass-through (IPT). In this paper, there is a cost of bond holdings that allows us to incorporate the dynamics of NFA into the risk-sharing condition. On theoretical grounds, our results suggest that the dynamics of NFA may account for the lack of risk-sharing across countries. In addition, the IPT mechanism, by closing the current account channel, does not help to explain this feature of the data. On empirical grounds, we test the risk-sharing condition derived in the paper, and we find that growth factors of consumption and real exchange rates behave in a manner that may be consistent with a significant role for the net foreign asset position.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

3173. An Empirical Analysis of Inflation in OECD Countries

Author:
Jaime Marquez and Jane Ihrig
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
One of the most remarkable macroeconomic developments of the past decade has been the widespread decline in inflation despite declines in unemployment rates. For the United States, these seemingly contradictory developments have been reconciled in terms of three factors: (1) an acceleration in productivity, (2) structural changes in labor markets that lowered the natural unemployment rate (NAIRU), and (3) improved credibility of monetary policy. Here we ask whether comparable factors were at work in foreign industrial countries. To address this question, we empirically characterize the relationship between inflation, the unemployment rate, and structural factors using an extended Phillips curve model with quarterly data through 1994. By undertaking counterfactual simulations from 1995 to 2001, we quantify the separate contributions of unemployment-rate movements, labor-market reforms (that affected the NAIRU), and productivity developments on inflation. In line with previous work on the United States, we find that productivity advancements were the main structural factor reducing inflation in the United States. For foreign countries, persistent labor-market slack was the main factor exerting downward pressure on inflation. This persistence stemmed, in part, from structural reforms that lowered the NAIRU while the unemployment rate was declining.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

3174. New Keynesian, Open-Economy Models and Their Implications for Monetary Policy

Author:
Brian M. Doyle and David Bowman
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The considerable amount of research in recent years on New Keynesian, open-economy models -- models with nominal price rigidities and intertemporally maximizing agents -- has yielded fresh insights for what Alan Blinder has called the “dark art” of making monetary policy. The literature has made its greatest contributions in understanding the transmission of shocks across countries, exchange rate pass-through and the effects of different pricing rules, and how these impact optimal monetary policy rules and international policy coordination. While the literature has by no means solved the great mysteries of open-economy macroeconomics, it has laid out a framework where we can ask normative questions of monetary policy, such as how much a central bank should react to movements in the exchange rate. However, monetary policy remains an empirical endeavour, and would be helped by further work which empirically estimates or calibrates these new models.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy

3175. Central Asian Leadership Succession: When, Not If

Author:
Eugene B. Rumer
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Central Asian political landscape yields few signs of an impending storm in the near term. The absence of threats to the status quo, however, does not mean that it is acceptable or that it represents a stable political equilibrium in the region. Leadership succession in Central Asia bears watching for several reasons: as a precedent-setting process, it will provide the key missing element for the emerging political structures of the Central Asian states the tenure of the next generation will either make up for the shortcomings of its predecessors or aggravate them in the event of the latter, the stage will be set in Central Asia for more radical changes that could reverberate far beyond remote regional boundaries.
Topic:
Security, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
China and Asia

3176. Modernizing China's Military: A High-Stakes Gamble?

Author:
Howard M. Krawitz
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
China's accelerated push to modernize the People's Liberation Army (PLA) raises two important questions: What impact will such change have upon the PLA image, status, and role in Chinese society? And how will Chinese military modernization affect the strategic interests and security concerns of the United States and China's neighbors in the region? Making the PLA into a more professional, technologically proficient force would certainly strengthen its capability to perform national defense, regional security, and other externally oriented missions more effectively. But modernization could also significantly change internal PLA demographics, resulting in a drastic alteration of the social contract that has traditionally existed between China's military and civilian society.
Topic:
Security, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States and China

3177. New Constitutional Position of the Army

Author:
Miroslav Hadzic
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
Unwilling to establish the principles of future relations in the joint state, the heads of the Federal, Serbian, and Montenegrin authorities, after being pressured by the European Union (EU), finally signed the Belgrade Agreement. Afterwards, they began to draft the Constitutional Charter of the joint state of Serbia and Montenegro. The entire project is based upon the supposition that this supra-national creation will only have delegated powers agreed to by member states. This infers that the Union will not have original sovereignty; rather Serbia and Montenegro will have it. The implementation of this solution will sever all ties with the federal organization of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) and its predecessors, only simplifying matters, as Montenegro has already unilaterally excluded itself from the authority of federal bodies, and in that way, has practically abolished this state.
Topic:
Security, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Serbia and Montenegro

3178. A Casual View into the Future: Reform of Military Education in the Czech Republic

Author:
Marie Vlachová and Ladislav Halberštát
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
There is no doubt that the security situation in Europe changed dramatically during the last decade. Whilst total war has disappeared from the inventory of security threats, regional wars with devastating consequences for affected countries, are still topical. With ethnic hostility, organised crime and the world-wide terrorism list of non-military threats has become much wider. A widening gap between rich Western countries and their poor neighbours in Eastern and South Eastern Europe represents another serious danger, as well as do uncontrollable corruption in politically and economically weak regimes, the inability of states to protect their borders efficiently against trafficking, smuggling, illegal immigration and weapons proliferation, including weapons of mass destruction. Information warfare which results in serious damage being caused by attacks on the information systems of developed countries represents another relatively new security threat. Expertise in security political decision-making has become very important, and thus in the future, a shortage of competent specialists in governmental and parliamentary structures could affect states' ability to anticipate threats and make an adequate decision.
Topic:
Security, Development, Government, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

3179. Mediatisation and democratization

Author:
Hans-Jörg Trenz
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Research Papers Archive
Abstract:
The debate about the legitimacy of the EU and the possibilities of its democratisation has so far only rarely addressed the question of the role of the media. An instrumental approach prevails towards the media acknowledging that the so-called gap between the EU and its citizens is grounded in a communication deficit and that the EU should therefore strive towards a higher legitimacy in terms of public accountability, openness and participation, in other words of democracy. The paper discusses these technical aspects of public-sphere building from above in relation to the systematic constraints on mediatisation that result from the inertia of the existing (national) media spheres. On the basis of this, an alternative understanding of mediatisation and its ambivalent effects on the legitimacy of the EU will be developed. The proposal is that European public sphere research should focus on the more active role of the media as an independent variable that affects institutional choices and processes. Empirical results from comparative content analyses are discussed, which illustrate to what extent media have become an enabling and/or constraining factor of European integration..
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

3180. Reconciling Growth and the Environment

Author:
Neva Goodwin and Jonathan Harris
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
Macroeconomic theory and policy are strongly based on the assumption that economic growth is a fundamental goal. The environmental realities of the twenty- first century compel a reassessment of macro theory in terms of the impact of current growth patterns on planetary ecosystems.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance