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2851. Bi-Annual Report: 01 July - 31 December 2004

Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons
Abstract:
In November 2001 the Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe adopted a Regional Implementation Plan on Combating the Proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons1 in South Eastern Europe, which provides a framework of approaches and measures to tackle SALW issues that can be adopted by the countries of the region and supported by international organisations and bi-lateral donors. The Implementation Plan included provision for the establishment of a regional clearinghouse to support its implementation, and on the basis of this mandate SEESAC was officially launched in Belgrade on the 08 May 2002 as a joint UNDP and Stability Pact initiative.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

2852. Economic Reforms, Democracy and Growth in Eastern Europe and Eurasia

Author:
Robyn Murphy, Ron Sprout, and Paul Pleva
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
This research analyses the interaction between economic reforms, reforms, and economic growth. One of the salient characteristics of the transition region has been two very distinct patterns between economic and democratic reforms: convergence of the two reform dimensions in the CEE countries and divergence Eurasia. Nevertheless, results from econometric tests (which attempt to control for possible intervening influences) suggest that economic and democratic reforms are mutually reinforcing throughout the region, even in Eurasia. We also found evidencthat: (1) economic reforms have a stronger impact on democratic reforms than the reverse; (2) economic reforms favorably affect economic growth; (3) democratic refavorably affect economic growth indirectly (via economic reforms) if not directly; and (4) while the feedback effects from economic growth to reforms are more ambiguous, there is some evidence that economic growth may actually stifle democratic reforms, and/or economic contraction may facilitate democratization.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Eurasia and Eastern Europe

2853. Education in Eastern Europe and Eurasia

Author:
Robyn Murphy, Ron Sprout, and Matt Petric
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
Conventional wisdom has been that educational aspects of human capital in the former Communist countries were largely an asset going into the transition. However, it has also been widely perceived that the type of education in the Communist countries (with emphases on memorization at the expense of analytical and critical thinking, and perhaps premature specialization if not over-specialization) may be ill-suited for the needs of a market economy This study analyzes trends in four cross-country surveys of education performance: the Trends in International Mathematics and Sciences Study (TIMSS); the International Adult Literacy Survey (IALS); the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS); and the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA). Salient “quantity” of education indicators (enrollment and expenditure trends) are also assessed and compared with the “quality” of education indicators from results of the cross-national performance surveys.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Education
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

2854. Overcoming the Security Council Reform Impasse: The Implausible versus the Plausible

Author:
Thomas G. Weiss
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Ralph Bunche Institute for International Studies, City University of New York
Abstract:
Anniversaries are a typical time to take stock and think about change. The United Nations (UN) roller coaster ride has been severe in the post-Cold War era – from the euphoria surrounding Security Council decision-making to use military force against Iraq in 1990-1991 when "renaissance" was the common multilateral refrain, to the current morass after severe divisions over the decision by the United States (U.S.) and United Kingdom (UK) to go to war in Iraq in 2003 with a return to the "dark ages" of unilateralism.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Development, and International Organization
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and United Kingdom

2855. Natural Resources and Contemporary Conflicts

Author:
Jean-François Gagné
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Raoul Dandurand Chair of Strategic and Diplomatic Studies, Université du Québec à Montréal
Abstract:
Natural resources are frequently associated with violence or at least with tensions: 85% of countries where wars (in most cases, civil wars) were under way in 2003 possessed abundant natural resources. While there are no precise figures on low-intensity conflicts, we do know that many ad hoc armed interventions, popular uprisings and other destabilizing events that have the potential to lead to larger flare-ups are also concentrated in resource-rich countries.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, and War

2856. A Flexible Finite-Horizon Identification of Technology Shocks

Author:
Neville Francis, Michael T. Owyang, and Jennifer T. Roush
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Recent empirical studies using infinite horizon long-run restrictions question the validity of the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis. These results have met with their own controversy, stemming from their sensitivity to changes in model specification and the general poor performance of long run restrictions in Monte Carlo experiments. We propose a alternative identification that maximizes the contribution of technology shocks to the forecast error variance of labor productivity at a long, but finite horizon. In small samples, our identification outperforms its infinite horizon counterpart by producing less biased impulse responses and technology shocks that are more highly correlated with the technology shocks from the underlying model. For U.S. data, we show that the negative hours response is not robust to allowing a greater role for non-technology shocks in the forecast error variance share at a ten year horizon.
Topic:
Development, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

2857. Working for Women, Worldwide

Author:
Paula J. Dobriansky
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In 1995, at one of the largest international conferences ever held, women from around the world, representing both governments and the private sector, gathered in Beijing to set forth a platform for the political, economic, and social empowerment of women.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Gender Issues
Political Geography:
United States and Beijing

2858. Financial Market Developments and Economic Activity during Current Account Adjustments in Industrial Economies

Author:
Steven B. Kamin, Sylvain Leduc, and Hilary Croke
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Much has been written about prospects for U.S. current account adjustment, including the possibility of what is sometimes referred to as a “disorderly correction”: a sharp fall in the exchange rate that boosts interest rates, depresses stock prices, and weakens economic activity. This paper assesses some of the empirical evidence bearing on the likelihood of the disorderly correction scenario, drawing on the experience of previous current account adjustments in industrial economies. We examined the paths of key economic performance indicators before, during, and after the onset of adjustment, building on the analysis of Freund (2000).
Topic:
Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

2859. International Risk-Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks

Author:
Sylvain Leduc, Giancarlo Corsetti, and Luca Dedola
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
A central puzzle in international finance is that real exchange rates are volatile and, in stark contradiction to efficient risk-sharing, negatively correlated with cross-country consumption ratios. This paper shows that a standard international business cycle model with incomplete asset markets augmented with distribution services can account quantitatively for these properties of real exchange rates. Distribution services, intensive in local inputs, drive a wedge between producer and consumer prices, thus lowering the impact of terms-of-trade changes on optimal agents' decisions. This reduces the price elasticity of tradables separately from assumptions on preferences.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

2860. An Assessment of the Impact of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention: 1991-2004

Author:
Alain P. Chaboud and Owen Humpage
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We analyze the short-term price impact of Japanese foreign exchange intervention operations between 1991 and 2004, using official data from Japan's Ministry of Finance. Over the period as a whole, we find some evidence of a modest "against the wind" effect, but interventions do not have value as a forecast that the exchange rate will move in a direction consistent with the operations. Interventions conducted between 1995 and 2002, which were large and infrequent, met with a much higher degree of success. For the most recent episode of intervention, in 2003 and 2004, despite the record size and frequency of the overall episode, it is difficult to statistically distinguish the pattern of exchange rate movements on intervention days from that of all the days in that particular subperiod, showing little effectiveness. Still, while the evidence of Japanese intervention effectiveness is modest overall, it appears to be stronger than that found using similar techniques for U.S. intervention operations conducted in the 1980s and 1990s.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan and Israel