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2451. Flying Geese or Sitting Ducks: China's Impact on the Trading Fortunes of other Asian Economies

Author:
Alan J. Ahearne, John G. Fernald, John W. Schindler, and Prakash Loungani
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper updates our earlier work (Ahearne, Fernald, Loungani and Schindler, 2003) on whether China, with its huge pool of labor and an allegedly undervalued exchange rate, is hurting the export performance of other emerging market economies in Asia. We continue to find that while exchange rates matter for export performance, the income growth of trading partners matters far more. This suggests the potential for exports of all Asian economies to grow in harmony as long as global growth is strong. We also examine changes in export shares of Asian economies to the U.S. market and find evidence that dramatic changes in shares are taking place. Many of these changes are consistent with a 'flying geese' pattern in which China moves into the product space vacated by the Asian NIEs or with greater integration of trade across Asia in the production of final goods. Nevertheless, China's dramatic gains in recent years do increase the pressure on Asian economies, particularly in ASEAN and South Asia, to seek areas of comparative advantage.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, and Asia

2452. The Fate of the Earth in the Balance - The Metaphysics of Climate Change

Author:
Steven F. Hayward
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
A close reading of Al Gore's views on the linkages between environmental issues and broader social and philosophical currents reveals their problematic political and policy implications. Gore derives our environmental problems from deeper metaphysical and psychosocial currents, a path that will foreclose a number of productive policy approaches to the problem of climate change.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Environment, and Politics

2453. What Could Go Wrong?

Author:
Harry Harding
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
China has done remarkably well in its development over the last twenty-five years. It has achieved and sustained high rates of economic growth, lifting millions out of poverty. It has achieved a significant place in the international economy. It is widely regarded as a major power, not only in Asia but also increasingly on a global stage. Looking ahead, however, things could go wrong – possibly quite seriously wrong – for China, and if China experiences serious problems, its size and its expanded role in the world mean that there could be serious consequences for the broader international community as well.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2454. China Succeeding Beyond Expectations

Author:
Albert Kiedel
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
What are the implications if China sustains nine-percent growth through 2010? This is the basic question posed by conference organizers. The relevant time frame is what matters most. If China merely maintains nine-percent growth until the year 2010, the implications are not great. Too much is left unknown about what comes after 2010. Even with nine-percent growth over the next five years, China in 2010 will still be at a relatively low level of performance, both overall and in per-capita terms. But if sustaining nine-percent growth to 2010 means that China has launched on-going reforms that will continue to engineer institutional changes needed for a market economy's successful commercial and political management, then the resulting successful development trajectory in the rest of the century will generate profound and, from today's perspective, unexpected consequences.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2455. Transatlantic Transformation: Building a NATO-EU Security Architecture

Author:
David C. Gompert, Jan M. Lodal, Leslie S. Lebl, Walter B. Slocombe, and Frances G. Burwell
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Since 1989, the security environment facing the United States and its European allies has changed beyond recognition. The Soviet Union has disintegrated, as has the division of Europe between East and West, and new threats have arisen. The disintegration of Yugoslavia in the 1990s demonstrated that instability and war emerging from failing states could affect the peace and security of Europe. After 2001, global terrorism became the priority threat, especially when linked with the prospect of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Development
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia

2456. Markets As Conversations: Markets' Contribution To Civility, The Public Sphere And Civil Society At Large

Author:
Victor Pérez-Diaz
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The author restates a traditional, broad and composite view of civil society, of increasing relevance at a time of ever greater complexity in a non-state centered world; and he explores the relations between markets, associations and politics as parts of that interconnected whole. Markets as conversations shape people's dispositions and help developing a set of civil and civic virtues, bracketed together under the rubric of civility. The paper examines the scope and limits of these civilizing effects on politics and the public sphere.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Markets

2457. The European Union as a "Green Normative Power"? EU Leadership in International Biotechnology Regulation

Author:
Robert Falkner
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper examines the transformation of the European Union (EU) from a laggard to a leader in the international politics of biotechnology regulation. The emergence of EU leadership in global environmental politics during the 1990s seems to support recent arguments about the distinctive nature of the EU as a "normative power" in international relations. However, as this paper argues, this perspective lacks historical depth and fails to capture tensions between competing principles and conflict among domestic interest groups in Europe. The paper calls for a more critical reading of the normative power argument and identifies shifts in the domestic political economy of agricultural biotechnology as the key factors behind the EU's support for a precautionary international regime on trade in genetically modified organisms.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

2458. Democratization in Postcommunist Europe: Illiberal Regimes and the Leverage of International Actors

Author:
Milada Anna Vachudova
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The European Union (EU) may be presiding over the most successful democracy promotion program ever implemented by an international actor. Among postcommunist states with a credible EU membership perspective, we can see a significant – though far from complete – convergence toward liberal democracy. This is all the more interesting since ten years ago many of these states had illiberal or authoritarian regimes. I focus in this article on the sources of political change in previously illiberal regimes before and after "watershed elections," especially in the Western Balkans. I argue that over time the EU's leverage strengthened the hand of liberal forces against illiberal ones by way of four mechanisms: creating a focal point for cooperation, providing incentives for adapting, using conditionality, and serving as a credible commitment for reform. Consequently, most political parties have eventually changed their agenda to make it compatible with the state's bid for EU membership. I investigate the domestic conditions that have caused these mechanisms to function only weakly in Serbia and Bosnia.
Topic:
Democratization and Development
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Serbia

2459. From Competition to Constitution: Races to Bottoms and the Rise of "Shadow" Social Europe

Author:
Éloi Laurent
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
In this paper, I examine how the specific nature of economic integration in the European Union has affected member states' redistribution policies over the last two decades. More precisely, I attempt to detail the effect of social-tax competition between member states within social models, processes that I label “races to bottoms.” In this framework, I identify the emergence of an informal set of rules effectively constraining national redistribution policies in different ways, given the diversity of tax-social compacts in the EU. Because these rules are implicit and their effect generally underestimated, I gather them under the notion of “shadow” social Europe. Having empirically assessed the impact of this dynamic on the “continental,” the “Nordic,” the “eastern” and the “liberal” social-tax compact, I finally try to present a normative perspective and some policy options on this matter.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe

2460. Natural Unemployment, the Role of Monetary Policy and Wage Bargaining: A Theoretical Perspective

Author:
Stefan Collignon
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper models unemployment as a general equilibrium solution in labor and capital markets, while the natural rate hypothesis explains unemployment simply as a partial equilibrium in the labor market. It is shown that monetary policy can have long-run effects by affecting required returns on capital and investment. If monetary policy is primarily concerned with maintaining price stability, the interaction between wage bargaining and the central bank's credibility as an inflation fighter becomes a crucial factor in determining employment. Different labor market institutions condition different monetary policy reactions. With centralized wage bargaining, a central bank mandate focusing primarily on price stability is sufficient. With an atomistic labor market, the central bank must also consider output as a policy objective.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe