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361. The New Neighbors: A User's Guide to Data on Immigrants in U.S. Communities

Author:
Randy Capps, Michael E. Fix, Dan Perez-Lopez, and Jeffrey S. Passel
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
Immigrant integration is now a key issue for communities across the nation. States and communities that had seen few immigrants as recently as 1990 are now welcoming new arrivals in unprecedented numbers. Although new immigrants continue to settle in the traditional U.S. centers of immigration—including California, Florida, New York, and Texas—the states with the currently fastest growing immigrant populations have not seen similar inflows for almost a century, if ever. According to the 2000 Census, these new destination states include North Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee (at the top of the list) and other states in the Southeast, as well as states across the Midwest and up into the Pacific Northwest.
Topic:
Demographics, Government, and Migration
Political Geography:
United States, New York, California, Georgia, Texas, and Florida

362. Budget Blues: The Fiscal Outlook and Options for Reform

Author:
William G. Gale, Alan J. Auerbach, Peter Orszag, and Samuel R. Potter
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
Establishing a sustainable fiscal policy is central to the nation's long-term economic prospects, but requires a clear understanding of how past and current policies affect future resources. The federal budget should, but does not, provide this information, both because the task is difficult and current accounting practices are deficient. This paper shows that adjusting the official budget for many accounting and economic issues implies a bleak fiscal outlook that presents policymakers with difficult choices. We also explore options to restore fiscal sustainability directly and to improve the budget process that governs fiscal decisions.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

363. Quo Vadis? Inequality and Poverty Dynamics across Russian Regions

Author:
Ruslan Yemtsov
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper analyses regional data on inequality and poverty in Russia during 1994-2000 using published series from the regionally representative Household Budget Survey. The paper finds that the share of inequality in Russia coming from the between-regions component is large (close to a third of the total inequality), growing, and accounts for most of the increase in national inequality over 1994-2000. The paper demonstrates an absence of interregional convergence in incomes across Russian regions using various techniques. On the other hand, the paper finds evidence of convergence in inequality within regions, trended towards an internationally high level. Based on these two findings, the paper projects dynamics of inequality and poverty in Russia over a ten-year time horizon. The projections show that if the observed trend continues, by 2010 the absolute majority of Russia's poor will be concentrated in a few permanently impoverished regions, while relatively more affluent regions will become virtually free of poverty. Finally, the paper relates fluctuations in inequality within regions to a set of factors classified into four broad categories: endowments and initial conditions, preferences, policies, and shocks. Among these factors short-run fluctuations of the unemployment rate are revealed as significant and strong signals of inequality.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

364. Opening the Convergence Black Box: Measurement Problems and Demographic Aspects

Author:
Carlos Azzoni, Naercio Menezes-Filho, and Tatiane Menezes
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper we address the issues involved with the use of microeconomic data, that is, household surveys, to compare the patterns of income growth among different regions instead of the commonly used aggregate data. In particular, we investigate the issues of aggregation of household income to regional income and the problem of demography. As returns to experience generally differ across regions, differences in the patterns of income growth across regions in the same time interval will differ across age groups, which means that convergence or divergence of aggregate income among regions will depend on the age structure of their population. We apply these concepts to the case of the states of Brazil, for which we have repeated cross sections from a rich household survey. We find that patterns of income growth vary a great deal across birth cohorts, depending on the economic returns to experience.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Brazil

365. Issues Matter: Social Attributes, Political Predispositions, and Issues Influence Voting

Author:
Robert B. Smith
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
To clarify the relative impacts of economic and social issues, this study analyzes a 1992 election night survey assessing how social attributes, ideological selfdesignation (liberal, centrist, conservative), party identification (Democrat, Independent, Republican), and the issues influenced the voters' choices. Residents of coastal regions, women, paid workers, and first time workers leaned toward a liberal ideology whereas ethnic minorities, older people, and poor people espoused a Democratic identification. Ideology had a direct effect on party identification, which had a very strong direct effect on vote. A latent structure analysis of the issues produced a Left-Center-Right classification. The Right is more ideologically consistent than the Left; Clinton got much of the Center's vote and this led to his victory. The issues, combined and separate, influenced the vote. The economic issue had a stronger effect on the Clinton vote than issues of health care reform, the environment, and lack of concern about a candidate's character. The character issue may be rooted in women's health issues: pro-life respondents may disparage the character of pro-choice candidates. The economic issue had little effect on the Perot vote (relative to that for Bush), whereas reform, the environment, and lack of concern about character distinguished Perot voters from Bush voters. Interactions among the issues indicated that Democratic advocacy of environmental protection somewhat weakened the effect of a negative campaign directed against Clinton's character.
Topic:
Demographics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

366. Global Human Development: Explaining Its Regional Variations

Author:
Robert B. Smith
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) ranks countries annually on its human development index (HDI), which combines a country's measures of longevity, literacy, and per capita income. This paper applies hierarchical modeling to quantify the factors that predict a country's HDI rank, explain the variability between regions, 2 R , and explain the variability between countries within a region, 2 c . It assesses the effects of nine civilizations: African, Buddhist, Hindu, Japanese, Latin, Moslem, Orthodox, Sinic, and Western. Civilization strongly predicts a country's rank on the HDI, but it does not provide the strongest causal explanation of the variability in the HDI quantified by 2 R and 2 c . Among the covariates studied here, present-day slavery (debt bondage, forced labor, chattel slavery, and prostitution) and the lack of political freedom explain much of the variability that is between regions, and corruption explains much of the variability among countries within a region. Additionally, countries with high rates of conflict and social unrest and debt have significantly worse positions on the HDI. Civilizations are best viewed as pointers to underlying social mechanisms like women's education that more directly determine development; its advance may enhance development
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Economics, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
United Nations

367. Population and Poverty Projections for Nicaragua 1995 - 2015

Author:
Lykke E. Andersen
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
The overall purpose of this project is to make detailed population and poverty projections that take into account expected demographic changes (in terms of fertility, mortality, migration, and education) as well as differentials in social mobility by household type. Such projections could be useful for a variety of purposes ranging from assessment of necessary social investments (education facilities, health facilities, pension systems, etc), projections of the size of the working age population who will demand jobs, targeting of poverty alleviation policies, projections of migration flows, to negotiations with external donors and creditors.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Migration, Poverty, Population, and Social Mobility
Political Geography:
Central America and Nicaragua

368. International — Pension Funding

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
This week's piece is on policy options for pension funding from an intergenerational risk-sharing perspective. Demographic and business-cycle trends point to a shortfall in pension provision for retiring generations over the medium term.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance

369. The Dispersal of Immigrants in the 1990s

Author:
Randy Capps, Michael Fix, and Jeffrey Passel
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
The U.S. immigrant population grew rapidly during the 1990s, with growth rates especially high across a wide band of states in the Southeast, Midwest, and Rocky Mountain regions. In many of these states, the foreign-born population more than doubled between 1990 and 2000.
Topic:
Demographics, Human Welfare, and Migration
Political Geography:
United States

370. The Defense Monitor: Population Growth and Water Resources in the Middle East

Author:
Rachel Stohl, Christopher Hellman, Tomas Valasek, Leigh Josey, and Nicholas Berry
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Political strife is nothing new in the Middle East. In fact, many of the present-day disputes date back 100 years or more. But the increasing scarcity of renewable water resources and the simultaneous high population growth add new urgency to the necessity to devise a settlement.
Topic:
International Relations, Agriculture, Demographics, and Environment
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East