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122. The Three Versions of Al Qaeda: A Primer
- Author:
- Clint Watts
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Al Qaeda today only slightly resembles the al Qaeda of yesteryear. Al Qaeda operatives or "al Qaeda-like" organizations stretch throughout North Africa, across the Middle East and into South Asia. This disparate string of organizations hosts a handful of al Qaeda's original Afghanistan and Pakistan veterans but mostly consist of newcomers inspired by al Qaeda's message -- disenfranchised young men seeking an adventurous fight in the wake of a tumultuous Arab Spring. Al Qaeda, or more appropriately jihadism pursued under al Qaeda's banner, has morphed in several waves over the course of more than two decades.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Canada, and Arabia
123. Seeking Solutions for Afghanistan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- The governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan have accepted a generous proposal from the government of Abu Dhabi to host a series of meetings facilitated by the East West Institute (EWI) to complement existing channels of communication between the two countries. Participants in the series, known as the Abu Dhabi Process, discuss areas of their relationship they believe will help build confidence, ensure greater stability, and enhance sustainable development in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The meetings are off-the-record, consultative in nature, and governed by the Chatham House Rule.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, War, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Abu Dhabi
124. Success, Lethality, and Cell Structure Across the Dimensions of Al Qaeda
- Author:
- Scott Helfstein and Dominick Wright
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- The death of Osama bin Laden on May 1, 2011 represents the culmination of a decade long fight to bring the perpetrators of the September 11 attacks to justice. Sustaining the effort needed to arrive at this point is a testament to the resilience of the counterterrorism community and nation, but it subsequently raises a series of questions regarding the future of al‐Qa'ida and the violent social movement spawned by bin Laden and fellow entrepreneurial jihadis. It is tempting to view his death as the end of a long struggle, but the violent extremists radicalized and mobilized by al‐Qa'ida's global jihadi narrative regard this as the end of the opening act. The terrorist threat that the United States and its allies face today has evolved in the years since September 11. Over that time, experts have engaged in heated debates over al‐Qa'ida's strategic center of gravity, with some stressing the importance of central leadership while others emphasize the threat from radicalized individuals unconnected with any formal organization. This seemingly academic debate about the nature of al‐Qa'ida is crucial to understanding the possible manifestations of the threat following bin Laden's death, as well as guiding the way forward for policymakers, practitioners, and the general public. The attached article tries to assess the threat al‐Qa'ida poses by looking across the different operational levels: the core, periphery, and movement. The core represents those in a hierarchical organization, marked by a leadership cadre tied to their followers. Those connected to the al‐Qa'ida network, but outside the control of core leadership, are the peripheral actors. For al‐Qa'ida, this is often best represented by affiliated or associated groups such as al‐Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) or al‐ Qa'ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). The final level is made up of those who are unconnected from the larger network, but motivated to action through the principles espoused by the ideological leaders. These individuals are part of a broader social movement that adheres to the narrative and perpetrates violent action, but remains distinct from the core or connected affiliates.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, War, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States
125. Osama bin Laden's Death Weakens al-Qaeda in Arab World
- Author:
- Elliott Abrams
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Elliott Abrams says that bin Laden's death is a further weakening of al-Qaeda's influence in the Arab world and helps the drive for democracy in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
126. Bin Laden's Symbolic Death Won't End Extremism
- Author:
- Steven Cook
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Steven Cook expects bin Laden's death to have a minimal impact on al-Qaeda, and says extremist activity targeting countries in the Middle East and the United States is likely to continue.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
127. After bin Laden: What's Next for Obama
- Author:
- James Lindsay
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- James Lindsay discusses how bin Laden's death will influence U.S. foreign policy, President Barack Obama's public opinion, and the war in Afghanistan.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
128. Osama bin Laden is Dead
- Author:
- Rohan Gunaratna
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
- Abstract:
- Now that Osama bin Laden is dead, the big question to ask is whether global terrorism will die with him. What did bin Laden leave behind?
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Globalization, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and United States
129. Counterrevolution in the Gulf
- Author:
- Toby C. Jones
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Saudi Arabia is pursuing a combination of domestic and regional policies that risk destabilizing the Persian Gulf and that risk undermining the United States interests there. Amid calls for political change, Saudi Arabia is failing to address pressing concerns about its political system and the need for political reform. Instead of responding favorably to calls for more political openness, the Kingdom is pursuing a risky domestic agenda, which ignores the social, economic, and political grievances that might fuel popular mobilization.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Democratization, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
130. Making Peace in Afghanistan: The Missing Political Strategy
- Author:
- Minna Jarvenpaa
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The proposition that a political settlement is needed to end the war in Afghanistan has gained increasing attention in recent months. Channels for preliminary talks with Taliban leaders have been sought and a High Peace Council created. However, despite upbeat military assessments, the insurgency has expanded its reach across the country and continues to enjoy sanctuary in Pakistan. Afghans increasingly resent the presence of foreign troops, and the Taliban draw strength from grievances by ordinary Afghans against their government. External money to supply military bases and pay for development projects often ends up fueling conflict rather than creating stability. For their part, President Karzai and many Afghan political elites lack genuine commitment to reform, calling into question the viability of a state-building international strategy and transition by 2014. Missing is a political strategy to end the conflict that goes beyond dealing with the Taliban; it must define the kind of state that Afghans are willing to live in and that regional neighbors can endorse. Knowing that such a settlement could take years to conclude does not diminish the urgency of initiating the process. Given doubts about Karzai's ability to manage the situation effectively, the international community needs to facilitate a peace process more pro-actively than it has. To be sustainable, the process will need to be inclusive; women's rights, human rights, and media freedoms cannot become casualties of negotiations. Afghanistan's international partners should commit to a peace process and lay the groundwork to appoint a mediator. This includes gauging the interests of parties, identifying actual participants in talks, and structuring an agenda. In the meantime, international military efforts must be realigned to avoid action that contradicts the ultimate aim of a peace settlement.
- Topic:
- NATO, Treaties and Agreements, War, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Taliban