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91. Is a military intervention in Mali unavoidable?

Author:
Roland Marchal
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
No clear settlement of the crisis in Mali seems possible in the short term, despite a UN Security Council resolution on October 12th paving the way for a military intervention by ECOWAS countries. The crisis is fed by various dynamics that need to be reconciled for peace to prevail. Firstly, the transition in Bamako is going nowhere, and further divisions in the government and the resurgence of the coup makers undermine the fragile progress witnessed in July. Unable to agree on a solution in Bamako, most political actors have developed a militaristic approach to any solution for the north. Secondly, Islamist and jihadist movements were able to gain control of northern Mali (two-thirds of the country) in a few months and have enforced new rules inspired by their understanding of Islam. Although protests erupted in several cities, the militants deepened their control over the region and its local and transnational economy and may have a constituency among the population. ECOWAS, supported by France, is willing to intervene militarily, but the fragmentation of the Malian army is a key weakness. Moreover, ECOWAS has not spelled out the actual aims of its intervention: mere territorial gains without addressing local and national grievances may mean the return of the status quo ante, which would be unacceptable to most people in northern Mali. As usual, the long-term political dimensions of the ECOWAS intervention are dismissed in favour of an immediate military victory that would be very fragile as a result.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Africa, France, and Northern Mali

92. Patterns of Violence in Iraq

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Sam Khazai
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Iraq is in an ongoing struggle to establish a new national identity, and one that can bridge across the deep sectarian divisions between its Shi'ites and Sunnis as well as the ethnic divisions between its Arabs and its Kurds and other minorities. At the same time, Iraq's leaders must try to build a new structure of governance, economics, and social order after a mix of dictatorship, war, sanctions, occupation, and civil conflict that began in the 1970s and have continued ever since.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Post Colonialism, Regime Change, Counterinsurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

93. Policy Considerations in Combating Terrorism: Decision‐Making Under Conditions of Risk and Uncertainty

Author:
Michele L. Malvesti
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In May 2011, in what is arguably the United States' most strategically significant counterterrorism (CT) mission to date, a U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) team crossed over 100 miles into Pakistan—a putative CT partner—without informing the host government, infiltrated a residential compound that stood in proximity to a military academy, and killed Usama bin Ladin, the leader of al‐Qa'ida and the individual ultimately responsible for the deadliest terrorist attacks on U.S. soil.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan and United States

94. Edges of Radicalization: Individuals, Networks and Ideas in Violent Extremism

Author:
Scott Helfstein
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This study argues that the spread of violent extremism cannot be fully understood as an ideological or social phenomenon, but must be viewed as a process that integrates the two forces in a coevolutionary manner. The same forces that make an ideology appealing to some aggrieved group of people are not necessarily the same factors that promote its transfer through social networks of self ‐ interested human beings.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency

95. Security Sector Governance in Pakistan: Progress, But Many Challenges Persist

Author:
C. Christine Fair
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The utility of the Pakistani army's domination over nearly all aspects of the state in Pakistan was brought into question following the US Navy SEAL raid on Osama bin Ladens hideout on May 2, 2011. Pakistanis wondered how these events could have occurred right under the military's nose. This issue paper examines the prospects for security sector governance in Pakistan and identifies the reforms that are necessary for Pakistan's government to make meaningful strides in this area. It begins by explaining the hegemonic role of the armed forces in the history of the state of Pakistan and the unique challenges of its contemporary security terrain before surveying security sector governance in several key areas: the security of Pakistan's growing nuclear arsenal; the all powerful intelligence agencies; disaster management; law enforcement; the criminal justice system and support to jihadist groups. While the report elucidates persistent shortcomings of security governance in all areas, it also highlights key areas of recent improvement, including disaster management and control of nuclear arms.
Topic:
Security, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, and South Asia

96. U.S. Foreign Policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Author:
Ahmed Rashid and Steve Coll
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
This World Leaders Forum program, titled "U.S. Foreign Policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan," will feature a conversation between Ahmed Rashid, Pakistani journalist and author, and Steve Coll, staff writer for The New Yorker and President, New America Foundation, followed by a question and answer session with the audience. Opening remarks will be made by Bill Grueskin, Dean of Academic Affairs and Professor of Professional Practice, Columbia School of Journalism.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islam, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency

97. The Koran Desecration and the Role of Religion in Conflict

Author:
Qamar ul Huda
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The recent desecration of the Koran and Islamic writings caused violent unrest in Afghanistan and raises concerns about essential training in culture and religion for U.S. personnel. Basic knowledge of religious actors and their roles in peacebuilding and conflict management is still barely factored in by policymakers and advisers to U.S. government. There needs more effort by local, regional, and international religious leaders to promote nonviolent and tolerant reactions even in midst of incendiary events. An assessment is needed to evaluate whether efforts at promoting inter-cultural sensitivity are working or not, and identifying processes for mitigating tensions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Religion, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

98. Health in Post-Conflict and Fragile States

Author:
Leonard S. Rubenstein and Rohini Jonnalagadda Haar
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The populations of states experiencing severe instability or unable to meet the basic functions of governance—referred to as fragile states—as well as those embroiled in conflict make up one-sixth of the world's population and suffer from far poorer health than their counterparts in other states at comparable stages of development. During many armed conflicts, health facilities and health workers come under attack, and infrastructure is often destroyed, inducing health workers to leave and undermining management capacity, thus further depleting health system competence to meet basic needs. Evidence is emerging that effective and equitable health services may be a central contributor to state legitimacy. All too often, health interventions in fragile and conflict-affected states are limited to humanitarian relief, which does not advance either health systems development or state legitimacy. Two decades of experience in development of health systems in fragile and conflict-affected states have shown a need to address weaknesses in policy, leadership, management capacty, human resources for health, supplies, service delivery, and data collection and evaluation through World Health Organization's (WHO) building blocks for health services. The military's record of engagement in civilian health systems development is poor, and its efforts to use health interventions to promote stability have not proven fruitful. Its most appropriate role in civilian health in fragile and conflict-affected states is to provide or support health services in highly insecure areas. Donors have not made health systems development in such states a priority in global health programs. Investments are often seen as politically or financially risky, and as having lower potential payoffs. Given the poor health indicators in these states, however, health devel¬opment in fragile and conflict-affected states should be a higher priority. Donors need to confront directly whether the goal of health development is stabilization or population health. Research is warranted on the relationships between health and armed conflict and between health development and state building.
Topic:
Development, Health, Terrorism, Counterinsurgency, and Fragile/Failed State

99. The United States, Russia, Europe, and Security: How to Address the "Unfinished Business" of the Post–Cold War Era

Author:
Isabelle François
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In 2012, the U.S. Department of Defense published Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense. In this strategy document, the Defense Department outlines the new focus of U.S. efforts on threats emanating primarily from South Asia and the Middle East, spelling out the U.S. commitment to address them by working with allies and partners, acknowledging Europe as the “home to some of America's most stalwart allies and partners.” It clearly states that the United States “has enduring interests in supporting peace and prosperity in Europe as well as bolstering the strength and vitality of NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization], which is critical to the security of Europe and beyond.” Moreover, the document characterizes engagement with Russia as important and reiterates U.S. commitment to continue efforts toward building a closer relationship in areas of mutual interest, encouraging Russia to be a contributor across a broad range of issues. The strategic environment will therefore remain one of partnership with Europe and Russia as nations work out the consequences of a rebalancing of forces in the near future.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

100. Letters from Abbottabad: Bin Ladin Sidelined?

Author:
Nelly Lahoud, Don Rassler, Stuart Caudill, Liam Collins, Gabriel Koehler-Derrick, and Muhammad al-`Ubaydi
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This report is a study of 17 declassified documents captured during the Abbottabad raid and released to the Combating Terrorism Center (CTC). They consist of electronic letters or draft letters, totaling 175 pages in the original Arabic and 197 pages in the English translation. The earliest is dated September 2006 and the latest April 2011. Some of the letters are incomplete and/or are missing their dates, and not all of the letters explicitly attribute their author(s) and/or indicate the addressee. In addition to Bin Ladin, the recognizable individuals who appear in the letters either as authors or as recipients are `Atiyyatullah and Abu Yahya al-Libi, both of whom are al-Qa`ida leaders; Adam Yahya Gadahn, the American al-Qa`ida spokesman and media advisor; Mukhtar Abu al-Zubayr, the leader of the Somali militant group Harakat al-Shabab al-Mujahidin; Abu Basir (Nasir al-Wuhayshi), the leader of the Yemen-based al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP); and Hakimullah Mahsud, the leader of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Given the small collection of documents released to the CTC, it is impossible to construct a coherent evolution of al-Qa`ida or its current state. “Letters from Abbottabad” is an initial exploration and contextualization of 17 documents that will be the grist for future academic debate and discussion.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan