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1611. Politics from the Barrel of a Gun: Small Arms Proliferation and Conflict in the Republic of Georgia

Author:
Spyros Demetriou
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Over ten years have elapsed since the Soviet Union collapsed in late 1991. Radical transitions from one political system to another are by definition conflict-prone, involving fierce competition between differing visions, fluid political affiliations, social activism, power vacuums, and severe economic crises—if not collapse. In such contexts of instability and uncertainty, the recourse to armed violence—as a form of expression and an instrument of power—is an attractive option. The collapse of the USSR engendered a radical transition culminating in the creation of 15 internationally recognized states. Although for the most part surprisingly peaceful, the transition to independence in four states—Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Moldova, and Georgia—was marked by widespread violence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:
Moldova, Soviet Union, and Georgia

1612. Stray Bullets: The Impact of Small Arms Misuse in Central America

Author:
Camilla Waszink, Robert Muggah, and William Godnick
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
This paper provides a review of the impact of small arms and light weapons in Central America in the years following the end of the armed hostilities of the 1980s and early 1990s. In this instance, 'Central America' refers to the Spanish-speaking countries of the isthmus—Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Panama.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:
Central America

1613. Good Fences Make Good Neighbours?: A Comparison of Consociational and Integrative Conflict Regulation Strategies in Post-Dayton Bosnia

Author:
Nina Fallentin Caspersen
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Based on conflict regulation in post-Dayton Bosnia, it will in this paper be analysed whether an integrative or a consociational approach is more effective in fostering stability following an ethnic war. I will compare the effectiveness of the approaches in fostering stability in post-Dayton Bosnia, and from this analysis seek to identify the empirical conditions that affect the effectiveness of the approaches and hence the conditions under which they should be prescribed. Whereas the ethnic groups in Lijphart's consociational approach constitute the basic units on which the political structure is built, Horowitz contends in his integrative approach that political structures must transcend the ethnic divisions, they must obliterate the divide. The Dayton Agreement that ended the war in Bosnia contains elements of both approaches and the balance between them has been changing in the course of its implementation. The case, therefore, constitutes a very suitable case for an empirical test. I will argue that due to the depth of divisions, the numerical balance between the groups, and the maximalist objectives of the parties, the consociational model has been more effective in fostering stability in Bosnia. Presently, a change to an integrative structure seems premature, but a mix of the approaches has been demonstrated to be able to foster moderation and the way forward could be a continued incremental change of the balance of this mix.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and Bosnia

1614. Transformation of UN Peacekeeping: Role of the International Community in Peace-building Statement

Author:
Julian Harston
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen, Konichiwa. It is a pleasure to address this symposium, The Role of Peace Keeping Operation in the Process of Nation Building – Peace -building Experience in East Timor- , jointly sponsored by the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) and the United Nations University (UNU), especially in light of East Timor's imminent admission to the United Nations as a Member State later this month. While East Timor's journey to statehood is a testament to the courage and determination of its people, it also reflects positively on the emergence of multi- dimensional United Nations peacekeeping operations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Asia

1615. Japan's Future Policies Towards the Middle East Peace Process: Recommendations

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The prospects for Middle East peace remain very dim. The Palestinians feel a growing sense of despair at the continuing occupation and the poor prospects for peace, while the Israelis are extremely uneasy about the escalation of terrorism and the ultimate destination of the Middle East peace process. A wide gap separates the two groups' views on the objectives of peace, and bridging this gap is a central issue in today's peace process. The trust that the parties managed to cultivate from the early 1990s has vanished like mist, and there is significant mutual distrust between Chairman Arafat and Prime Minister Sharon.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Middle East and Asia

1616. Developing and Applying EU Crisis Management. Test Case Macedonia

Author:
Ulrich Schneckener
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
Throughout the 1990s, the notion of conflict prevention had an impressive career. It reappeared on the international scene when UN Secretary-General Boutros-Ghali coined the term "preventive diplomacy" in this Agenda for Peace (1992). Since then, several international organizations or multilateral institutions, including the UN and its sub-organizations, the OSCE, the OAU, the OECD or the G-8, have published piles of papers and declarations committing themselves to the prevention of violent or armed conflicts, to change their policies accordingly (e.g. in the area of development or financial aid) and to develop new or to reform old tools, ranging from fact-finding or observer missions, special envoys, the use of sanctions, peace-building efforts, institution-building, reconciliation processes to humanitarian aid as well as long-term financial and economic assistance. Until now, however, many celebrated declarations hardly moved from rhetoric to substance, the "culture of prevention", as it has been called by UN Secretary-General Annan, is still to be developed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Development
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and United Nations

1617. Indonesia Backgrounder: How The Jemaah Islamiyah Terrorist Network Operates

Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As the Indonesian-led investigation proceeds, the Bali attack on 12 October 2002 looks more and more like the work of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI). But what exactly is Jemaah Islamiyah and how does it operate? It is one thing to describe, as many have by now, a network of Islamic radicals extending across Southeast Asia, led by Indonesian nationals, with a loose structure characterised by four territorial divisions known as mantiqis that cover peninsular Malaysia and Singapore; Java; Mindanao, Sabah, and Sulawesi; and Australia and Papua respectively.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, Australia, Singapore, Southeast Asia, and Papua

1618. Power and Wealth Sharing: Make or Break Time in Sudan's Peace Process

Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The latest phase of the negotiations in Machakos, Kenya closed on 18 November 2002 with the signing of an important new Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on power sharing and an extension of the earlier MOU on cessation of hostilities and unimpeded aid access. Significant progress was made during this phase. The Khartoum government and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) are slowly, painstakingly elaborating the structures of governance and wealth sharing arrangements through intense haggling – for example, what proportion of seats southerners will have in the legislative bodies and the oil revenues that will go to a Southern Reconstruction Fund.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Kenya, Sudan, and North Africa

1619. Salvaging Somalia's Chance For Peace

Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 27 October 2002, Somali political leaders gathered in the Kenyan town of Eldoret signed a new declaration that envisages an end to the protracted crisis in their country. After more than a decade as the only country in the world totally devoid of a functioning central government and no less than twenty unsuccessful national-level peace initiatives since 1991, the Eldoret Declaration has raised hopes that resolution of the Somali crisis may now be within reach.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Kenya, North Africa, and Somalia

1620. Old Games, New Rules: Conflict on the Israel-Lebanon Border

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Israel-Lebanon border is the only Arab-Israeli front to have witnessed continuous violence since the late 1960s and it could become the trigger for a broader Arab-Israeli conflict. Yet, in recent times it has been the object of very little international focus. Amidst raging warfare between Israelis and Palestinians and mounting war-talk surrounding Iraq, there is scant energy to devote to a conflict that, since Israel's May 2000 withdrawal from Lebanon, appears devoid of justification and which neither of its principal protagonists seems interested in escalating. But ignoring it could be costly. Neither its roots nor its implications have ever been purely local. Israel's withdrawal has lessened the immediate costs but in some ways rendered the problem more unpredictable. Stripped of its cover as an Israeli-Lebanese border dispute, it has laid bare both the underlying Israeli-Syrian confrontation and Iran's involvement in the conflict.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria