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1011. Somalia: To Move Beyond the Failed State

Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Since 1991 Somalia has been the archetypal failed state. Several attempts to create a transitional set-up have failed, and the current one is on the brink of collapse, overtaken yet again by an Islamist insurgency, despite the support of an Ethiopian military intervention since December 2006. Over the last two years the situation has deteriorated into one of the world's worst humanitarian and security crises. The international community is preoccupied with a symptom - the piracy phenomenon - instead of concentrating on the core of the crisis, the need for a political settlement. The announced Ethiopian withdrawal, if it occurs, will open up a new period of uncertainty and risk. It could also provide a window of opportunity to relaunch a credible political process, however, if additional parties can be persuaded to join the Djibouti reconciliation talks, and local and international actors - including the U.S. and Ethiopia - accept that room must be found for much of the Islamist insurgency in that process and ultimately in a new government dispensation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

1012. Chemical and Biochemical Non-lethal Weapons: Political and Technical Aspects

Author:
Ronald g. sutherland
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The possibility that chemical or biological substances might be used for hostile purposes or as a method of warfare is of concern to those involved in ensuring that the international prohibition against chemical and biological warfare (CBW) is effectively implemented. The 1972 Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) and the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) are the principal international legal instruments against CBW. If any chemical or biological substance— including toxins and, in principle, various pharmacologically active drugs—were used for 'hostile purposes or in armed conflict' or as a 'method of warfare' it would constitute a violation of the BTWC and the CWC, respectively. The BTWC has weak verification mechanisms, while the CWC has quite strong verification mechanisms and procedures which are implemented by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), located in The Hague.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction

1013. Transparency in transfers of small arms and light weapons

Author:
Paul Holtom
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Intergovernmental and public transparency in international transfers of small arms and light weapons (SALW) lags behind transparency levels for other conventional weapons. In recent years, intergovernmental organizations, export control regimes and states have worked to provide more information to other states and the public on SALW transfers. In December 2003 the United Nations General Assembly invited member states to provide information on SALW transfers to the UN Register of Conventional Arms (UNROCA).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War

1014. The Impact on Domestic Policy of the EU Code of Conduct on Arms Exports The Czech Republic, the Netherlands and Spain

Author:
Mark Bromley
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
In the 17 years since the European Union (EU) first formulated common standards to be applied in arms export decision making, there has been a rapid expansion in the EU's role as a coordinator and generator of policy in an area that was previously the exclusive domain of national governments. Most relevant to this change has been the EU Code of Conduct on Arms Exports (EU Code of Conduct), which was adopted by the Council of the EU in June 1998 and will celebrate its 10th anniversary in June 2008. The Code takes the form of a Council declaration— it contains political commitments but is not legally binding. Under the Code, EU member states commit themselves to set 'high common standards which should be regarded as the minimum for the management of, and restraint in, conventional arms transfers' and 'to reinforce cooperation and to promote convergence in the field of conventional arms exports' within the framework of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). It lists eight criteria that member states agree to take into account when assessing applications for arms export licences. More importantly, the Code outlines reporting procedures and consultation mechanisms intended to ensure consistent interpretation of the criteria.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Spain, and Netherlands

1015. Brasil, Argentina y la integración regional durante la década de 1960 en el marco de las relaciones con Estados Unidos

Author:
Silvina María Romano
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
El siguiente trabajo se centra en las relaciones entre Argentina y Brasil y el rol que cada uno de estos países desempeñó en el marco del proceso de integración institucionalizado en la Asociación Latinoamericana de Libre Comercio (ALALC) a principios de 1960, teniendo en cuenta la incidencia del gobierno norteamericano en orden a su condición de potencia hegemónica continental. El centro de reflexión lo constituyen las relaciones entre Argentina y Brasil por ser los países de mayor gravitación en el Cono Sur, considerando que, históricamente, se han desarrollado de manera complementaria o, a veces, contradictoria con respecto a la política exterior de las grandes potencias, siendo Estados Unidos el gobierno que demostró mayor gravitación en la región durante el período abordado (Rapoport y Laufer, 2000).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, and Latin America

1016. Restoring Georgia's Sovereignty in Abkhazia

Author:
David L. Phillips
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This report evaluates the international community's response to the conflict in Abkhazia. It recommends a package of immediate measures to the Georgian and Abkhaz sides to prevent the escalation of violence. As part of a multi-year strategy, it also suggests steps that Georgians, Abkhaz, and international stakeholders can take to lay the ground for future negotiations. In addition, the report proposes a diplomatic initiative by the United States and the European Union (EU) that would restore Georgia's sovereignty, while preserving the interests of Abkhaz.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Sovereignty, and War
Political Geography:
Russia, Eastern Europe, Georgia, and Abkhazia

1017. Syrian–Israeli Peace: A Possible Key to Regional Change

Author:
Paul Salem
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Peace between Syria and Israel is a real possibility—it was almost achieved twice before in 1995–1996 and 1999–2000. Both sides have indicated their interest through indirect talks hosted by Turkey. Syrian–Israeli peace would have positive effects on U.S. interests in the Middle East, including Lebanon, Iraq, and other tracks of the Arab–Israeli peace process. The downsides of U.S. mediation are limited. The two sides cannot and will not reach a peace treaty without U.S. leadership. The Obama administration should develop an integrated policy including pressure, incentives, and robust diplomacy to make this possibility a reality. The pressure would be to keep Syria out of Lebanon and Iraq. This would mean continued support for UN Security Council resolutions on Lebanon and the International Hariri Tribunal, as well as continued U.S. sanctions as long as Syria violates its neighbors' sovereignty. The incentives should include the return of the Golan Heights, ending Syria's political isolation, U.S. help in securing World Trade Organization accession, and encouraging foreign direct investment.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, Lebanon, and Syria

1018. Stabilizing Afghanistan: Threats and Challenges

Author:
William Maley
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Afghanistan cannot be stabilized by quick fixes. The United States, NATO, and their allies need to make a sustained commitment for the long term. Instead of a simple “surge,” there needs to be a much clearer focus on bringing security to Afghans' daily lives. Only once this is achieved will Afghanistan's government have real reservoirs of legitimacy. Afghanistan has not been served well by its 2004 Constitution, which created a dysfunctional system of government that relies too much on the president alone. The United States should support systemic reforms, first through the development of an effective executive office to support the Afghan president. Counternarcotics policies in Afghanistan must take account of domestic socioeconomic complexities, and be based on long-term development projects that increase the returns from cultivating different crops. Serious thought needs to be given to encouraging more Muslim states to contribute personnel to support the promotion of human security and development in Afghanistan. Pakistan needs to be pressured discreetly but very strongly to arrest the Afghan Taliban leadership in Pakistan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

1019. Fragility, Instability, and the Failure of States: Assessing Sources of Systemic Risk

Author:
Monty G. Marshall
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
A public debate over the threat posed by weak, fragile, failing, and failed states and what can or should be done about them has become increasing visible and vocal since the attacks of September 11, 2001. As President George W. Bush declared in his 2002 National Security Strategy report: “America is now threatened less by conquering states than ... by failing ones.” This debate has grown particularly acute as the United States' prolonged military response to the war on global terrorism in Afghanistan and Iraq has revealed the difficulties of controlling militancy and extremism by direct military intervention and enforced democratic change. The challenges associated with weak or failing states have garnered increase d attention by the policy community, but major differences about how to assess the level of risk in any given case remain.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Development, Diplomacy, Government, and International Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and America

1020. Evaluating Iraq's Provincial Reconstruction Teams While Drawdown Looms: A USIP Trip Report

Author:
Sam Parker and Rusty Barber
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Since their 2005 inception in Iraq, PRTs have struggled to fully define their mission, overcome structural problems, learn to work alongside their military counterparts and assist Iraqis down the path to self-governance and stability so that U.S. forces can withdraw. While the concept was born in the Afghan conflict, PRTs in Iraq bear little resemblance to their Afghan cousins, which are led and largely staffed by military officers. PRTs in Iraq are largely civilian-led and are required to address a host of issues including local governance, economic and women's development, health, agriculture, rule of law and education. In this respect, they resemble mini development task forces, harnessing civilian expertise sourced from the U.S. and augmented by military civil affairs officers.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Economics, Health, Terrorism, War, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Middle East