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511. Water and Conflict - Lessons Learned and Options Available on Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Water Governance

Author:
Helle Munk Ravnborg
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Over the last decade, water scarcity has increasingly been coupled with international security. Hitherto, the focus of concern has been transboundary water resources and international efforts have been devoted towards establishing institutions for cooperation on the management of such transboundary water resources. Such efforts appear to be successful in mitigating potential conflicts and therefore need to be sustained. At the same time, however, several observers point to the risk that local water conflicts will increase in numbers and intensity. This calls for improved understanding of the nature, extent and social, economic and political implications of such local water conflicts as well as better understanding of how to achieve effective water governance, i.e. a legislative, institutional and regulatory framework which promotes equitable access to and environmentally and economically sound management of water. These are some of the conclusions emerging from a Danida-funded study carried out by DIIS on Conflict Prevention and Mitigation in Water Resources Management, which are further expanded in this DIIS brief.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Environment

512. Are Events in Iraq after the Occupation an Ordinary Security Problem?

Author:
Nihat Ali Özcan
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
The US carried out the Iraqi occupation quickly, easily and with few casualties. It put an end to the security bureaucracy in the name of building new Iraq after the war. After a short while it faced unexpected resistance in the regions where Sunnite Arabs live. Insurgents have proved by their choice of targets and use of methods that they have a long-term and systematical resistance strategy. The insurgents could organize quickly because of effective tribal order, power of old security bureaucracy which kept its integrity after the war and refusal of foreign occupation. Insurgents want to control the public in order to get rid of weakness. Therefore, the keypoint of contention is who will control the public. While insurgents commonly use "terror" and "violence", occupiers try on the one hand to make insurgents ineffective, on the other, to win the "heart and brain" of the public. Security questions may spread to whole country in Iraq where there are ethnic and religious struggles. Iraqi Shiites may be involved in the conflict. Kurdish claims on Kirkuk may bring an ethnic conflict to the agenda. If the US administration can't provide stability in Iraq as soon as possible, Iraq may drift into a civil war.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Arabia, and Kirkuk

513. Reconsidering the Peace Corps

Author:
Lex Rieffel
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The Peace Corps is one of the smallest instruments in the foreign policy toolkit of the United States. It is a “boutique” agency with a superb reputation. The Bush administration has proposed doubling the number of Peace Corps volunteers working in developing countries to 14,000 by 2007, still below the 1966 peak of over 15,000 volunteers.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Agriculture, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States

514. Uncovered Interest Parity: It Works, But Not For Long

Author:
Jonathan H. Wright and Alain P. Chaboud
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The failure of uncovered interest parity can be ascribed to the existence of a risk premium. The size of this risk premium may shrink to zero over sufficiently small intervals of time. In contrast, because no interest is paid on intradaily positions and interest is instead paid discretely at the point when a position is rolled over from one day to the next, the size of the interest differential remains fixed over any interval that covers the time of the discrete interest payment. This is true no matter how short that interval is. Using a large dataset of high frequency exchange rate data, we run uncovered interest parity regression over different time intervals. We replicate the rejection of the uncovered interest parity hypothesis with daily data, but find results that are consistently much more supportive of the uncovered interest parity hypothesis over short windows of intradaily data that span the time of the discrete interest payment.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance

515. Beyond Greed and Grievance: Policy Lessons from Studies in the Political Economy of Armed Conflict

Author:
Heiko Nitzschke and Karen Ballentine
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
This policy report provides a synopsis of the key findings from case studies on the political economy of armed intra-state conflicts, commissioned by the International Peace Academy's program on Economic Agendas in Civil wars (EAC W ). These findings offer lessons for improved policies for conflict prevention and resolution. Combatants' incentives for self-enrichment and/ or opportunities for insurgent mobilization created by access to natural and financial resources were neither the primary nor sole cause of the separatist and non-separatist conflicts analyzed. Nevertheless, extensive combatant self-financing complicated and prolonged hostilities, in some cases creating serious impediments to their resolu-tion. In all cases, however, these factors interacted to varying degrees with long-standing socio-economic and political grievances, inter-ethnic disputes, and security dilemmas brought about by weak and unaccountable systems of governance. Conflict analysis should avoid "resource reductionist" models in favor of comprehensive approaches that not only account for the complex interrelationship between economic and political dynamics, but also incorporate the political economy of both rebellion and state failure. Improved understanding is required of the role that combatant access to resources can play in shaping a permissive opportunity structure for separatist and non-separatist conflicts relative to other socio-political factors. Different resource endowments affect different sorts of conflicts and benefit combatant parties in distinct ways, depending, inter alia, on the mode of exploitation and how proceeds are managed by the state. "Lootable" resources, such as alluvial diamonds and illegal narcotics are more likely to be implicated in non-separatist insurgencies. They prolong conflict by benefiting rebels and conflict-dependent civilians, compromising battle disci-pline, and by multiplying the number of peace spoilers. "Unlootable" resources, such as oil, gas, and deep-shaft mineral deposits tend to be associ-ated with separatist conflicts, which are often caused by ethno-political grievances over inequitable resource revenue-sharing and exclusionary government policies. Given the importance of lootable natural resources and easily captured diaspora remittances in sustaining many of today's armed conflicts, improved international regulatory efforts to curtail these resource flows are both warranted and necessary. Commodity control regimes need to be strengthened and also complemented by more comprehensive efforts that address the financial flows connected with those resources. However, even the most robust resource control regimes are unlikely to have a decisive or even fully positive impact. Where conflicts are motivated by a mix of political, security, ethnic, and economic factors, curtailing resource flows to combatants may weaken their military capacity but not their resolve to continue fighting. In addition, regulatory regimes may have adverse humanitarian effects by increasing civilian predation by rebels or by stifling civilian incomes. When designing and implementing regulatory regimes, policy-makers need to distinguish between those who exploit armed conflict for profit and power and those who participate in war economies to sustain their civilian livelihoods. The offer of "economic peace dividends" may co-opt belligerents into ceasefires or more formal peace processes. Critically, however, economic inducements are unlikely to achieve these results in the absence of a credible military threat and may risk the creation of "negative peace," where justice and sustainability are deeply compromised and the threat of renewed conflict remains high. Policy-makers need to identify and adequately integrate economic incentives of combatants into a wider set of political and strategic inducements for conflict resolution and peace-building. Today's insurgents increasingly engage in illegal economic activities either directly or through links with international criminal networks. However, insurgency groups have not equivocally transformed into mere criminal organizations as they retain- albeit to varying degrees- military and political goals. While improved interdiction and law enforcement are important policy tools, casting rebellion as a criminal rather than a political phenomenon may risk mischaracterizing legitimate grievances, thereby foreclosing opportu-nities for negotiated resolution, and may lend de facto legitimacy to state actors, regardless of their behavior and role in the conflict. Poor economic governance and state weakness are the critical mediating factors between resource abundance and vulnerability to armed conflict; the first engenders popular grievances, the second makes separatist and non-separatist insurgencies politically and militarily feasible. Policy responses need to focus on structural conflict prevention efforts by, inter alia, designing and supporting tools and strategies for more effective, equitable, and accountable systems of resource management, complemented by longer-term strategies of economic diversifica-tion and poverty reduction. Contemporary intra-state conflicts have strong regional and even global linkages. By increasing the number of potential war profiteers and peace-spoilers and multiplying the points of conflict, these broader dimensions not only affect the character and duration of hostilities, but also complicate the prospects for conflict resolution and post-conflict stability. Both conflict analysis and policymaking need to address these regional dimensions by strengthening the economic management capacities of formal regional organi-zations and ad hoc alliances, complementing- and thus strengthening- national and global conflict management strategies.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Political Economy

516. Reducing Threats at the Source: A European Perspective on Cooperative Threat Reduction

Author:
Ian Anthony
Publication Date:
11-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
While states are responsible for honouring any commitments to one another that they make, it has become obvious that they are not always capable of doing so. Where the failure to implement agreed undertakings reflects a lack of financial or technical capacity rather than a deliberate effort to undermine the terms of an agreement it is preferable for all parties to offer assistance rather than criticism and punishment. During the period after the end of the cold war a new type of international cooperation has appeared as states have been willing to render practical assistance to one another in order to reduce common threats. In broad terms military activities have been of three types: facilitating the dismantlement and destruction of weapons; the establishment of a safe and secure chain of custody over weapons or other items; and demilitarization and conversion projects.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

517. Combating Small Arms Light Weapons Proliferation: Scope for Action by the EU

Author:
Holger Anders
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
Illicit trafficking and misuse of small arms and light weapons (SALW)1pose serious threats to international peace and security. SALW proliferation facilitates and fuels violent conflicts, causes grave human suffering and contributes to armed banditry and crime. Moreover, the excessive availability of SALW on licit and black markets hinders conflict resolution and greatly undermines sustainable development.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation

518. Conflict Commodities: Addressing the Role of Natural Resources in Conflict

Author:
Natalie Pauwels
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Information Service
Abstract:
The role that the availability of lucrative natural resources including gem stones, minerals and timber plays in the incidence of violent conflict in several countries, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, is the subject of significant policy debate and academic research. Indeed, it is generally recognised that the trade in certain commodities has played a role in the continuation of several wars, providing resources to both rebels and governments to finance their military campaigns.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Environment, and War
Political Geography:
America

519. The Dignity of Difference: A Salute to Jonathan Sacks

Author:
Fred Dallmayr
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:
In the teeth of its modern despisers, religion has made a comeback in our time — for good or ill. Too often, the negative side is in the limelight. What Gilles Kepel has called the “revenge of God” on inspection usually turns out to be the ill will and vengefulness of religious communities and their leaders. The litany of contemporary religious clashes — or conflicts in good part spawned by religious motives — is long and depressing: Christians pitted against Muslims in Africa and the Balkans; Jews against Palestinians in the Near East; Hindus against Muslims in India and Kashmir; Hindus against Buddhists in Sri Lank, not to forget the old feud between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Globalization, Peace Studies, and Religion
Political Geography:
Africa, India, Kashmir, Sri Lanka, Palestine, Balkans, and North Ireland

520. Defusing a Ticking Bomb? Disentangling International Organisations

Author:
Indra Øverland
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This article examines how various organisations divide and coordinate their conflict prevention and development aid in the Samtskhe-Javakheti region of southern Georgia, and how that coordination might be improved. There have been numerous early warnings of impending violent conflict and calls for conflict prevention in Samtskhe-Javakheti. Counter-claims have, however, been asserted that the region's problem is in fact not one of potential violent ethnic conflict, but rather one of poverty and peripherality, and that exaggerated, uncoordinated early warning might in fact inflate conflicts that were not initially acute. At one point it seemed that the Samtskhe-Javakheti case would provide an example of uncoordinated and one-sided focus on conflict prevention and early warning on the part of international organisations, and its potentially detrimental consequences. An overview of the activities of the organisations, however, shows the contrary. A critical, sensitive and deconstructive perspective is already incorporated into their approach, and their activities are well coordinated. More formalised institutions are nonetheless needed to ensure the inclusion of large multilateral actors such as the World Bank and Council of Europe in the process, and consistent coordination in other regions too.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Georgia