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471. Decision-Making and Crisis Management in The Cuban Missile Affair

Author:
Anouar Boukhars
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
In what was the most serious "clash" during the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union came dangerously close to cataclysmic confrontation when the Soviets in an unprecedented dangerous move had begun a clandestine effort to establish a major offensive military presence in Castro's Cuba in October 1962. This potentially dreadful incident brought policy makers on both sides to seriously question their use of diplomacy and military force. Had it not been for the wisdom of the leaders of the two antagonistic countries, the US and the Soviet Union, no one could have speculated the harm that could have been inflicted on the whole world. This paper will therefore try to examine how the Cuban Missile Crisis came about and how well it was managed by the US and the Soviets political leadership. It will address the importance of the national security decision making in preventing this crisis from degenerating into a tragedy.
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
United States

472. Détente and Confrontation: The 1973 Israeli-Arab October War

Author:
Anouar Boukhars
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
Soviet-American relationship in the 1970's entered a new phase of controversial complexity. The 1970's were expected to mark a rupture with the antagonism of the cold war period. It was expected to be an era of détente where no efforts would be spared to avoid East-West confrontations. The two superpowers manifested their intentions to expand areas of cooperation and to reduce international tension. Both the US and the Soviets were eager to start a new promising, less volatile relationship. But this exuberance was soon to fade out with the explosive crises that were to occur in the periphery.
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
United States, America, Israel, and Arabia

473. A Two-level Game Analysis of the Complexities of Interstate Rivalry in the Maghreb

Author:
Anouar Boukhars
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
By drawing on current scholarly models of two-level game theory in the arena of international negotiations, I attempted to provide insight not only into the "why" of the current impasse in the Maghreb, but also into the "how" of resolving these issues. Putnam's celebrated two level game metaphor was the intellectual inspiration in this project. Despite its limitation, it was a useful model that provided some useful language for sorting out the current complexities and deadlock of the Maghreb.
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
Maghreb

474. French Military Doctrine in the 1990s

Author:
Sten Rynning
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The end of the Cold War and the disappearance of the strategic rationale for territorial nuclear deterrence have raised fundamental questions in relation to French military doctrine. Significant territorial threats have disappeared, and the main role for military instruments now lies on the peripheries of Europe or further beyond. For those who had invested faith in nuclear deterrence and strategic stability—and that concerns most actors not only in France but also elsewhere among NATO allies—this change of events has been a severe challenge. President Mitterrand symbolizes the pains of adjustment in many ways as he never seriously considered changing track and became instead an ardent opponent of profound reform.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, and Reform
Political Geography:
Europe and France

475. Japan's Uneasy Citizens and the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:
Sheila A. Smith
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War, U.S. and Japanese policy-makers have successfully reaffirmed the U.S.-Japan security alliance. Yet, even as they have done so, a series of events has revealed a deeper ambivalence in Japan about the terms of the alliance. These events began with the 1995 rape of a school girl in Okinawa by U.S. servicemen, focusing attention on the social costs to residents of hosting U.S. forces. In 1999 came North Korea's launch of a missile over Japan, raising doubts among many Japanese about their alliance partner's ability to protect them. Most recently, the outcome of the 2001 sinking of the Ehime Maru training ship by a U.S. nuclear sub seemed to many to sacrifice Japanese citizens' interests to those of the U.S. military. Taken independently, these developments may seem temporary set-backs to policymakers, but together they suggest that there is increasing impatience among Japan's citizens with the way the alliance is managed. This disconnect between the public and policymakers could, if untended, have serious implications for the U.S.-Japan alliance.
Topic:
Security, Cold War, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Asia, and North Korea

476. Future Visions for U.S. Defense Policy : Four Alternatives Presented as Presidential Speeches

Author:
John Hillen and Lawrence Korb
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War, our defense policy has been formulated on an ad hoc basis without a clear underpinning. This piecemeal way of doing things has caused problems and frustrations both at home and abroad. Our Congress, military, allies, adversaries, and potential adversaries are confused about the lack of consistency. You and your opponents expressed similar concerns during the campaign.
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
United States

477. Domestic Constraints On French Nato Policy

Author:
Anand Menon
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
French Politics, Culture Society
Institution:
Conference Group on French Politics Society
Abstract:
Since 1966 and even before, the policies pursued by France toward NATO have been both the object of a certain amount of Gallic pride and the source of considerable confusion, not to say irritation, among France's partners. Why have these policies been pursued? The aim of this article is to address this question by means of an examination of the domestic pressures and constraints that have helped to shape France's policies toward NATO. It reveals a striking paradox: the decision-making arrangements that developed around and emerged out of de Gaulle's single-minded quest to achieve international independence for France were specifically designed to provide him with the freedom to pursue policies of his own choosing. They increasingly came, however, to hamstring the efforts of French political leaders to do likewise, particularly when, in the aftermath of the Cold War, they came to realize that traditional Gaullist policies were no longer serving France as well as they once had.
Topic:
NATO, Cold War, and Development
Political Geography:
France

478. Redefining Sovereignty . The Use of Force After the End of the Cold War. New Options, Lawful and Legitimate?

Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The conference was organised by the Institute for International Affairs (IAI) with the support of the Centre for High Defence Studies (CASD), the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the NATO Office for Information and Press and the Thyssen Foundation. It was held in Rome, at the Centre for High Defence Studies, on 24 and 25 November 2000.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, Cold War, Human Rights, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Germany, and Rome

479. Middle East Missile Proliferation, Israeli Missile Defense, and the ABM Treaty Debate

Author:
Dore Gold
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
For most of the Cold War period, the spread of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction to the Middle East was severely constrained by the existence of a global regime of arms control agreements and export controls that was chiefly supported by both the U.S. and the Soviet Union. But in the last decade this regime has crumbled: In the Middle East, Iran and Iraq are seeking to build their own indigenous military-industrial infrastructure for the manufacture of intermediate-range (500-5,000 kilometers) missiles, and thus reduce their dependence on imports of whole missile systems, as was the case in the 1970s and 1980s. Intercontinental strategic-range systems are also planned. These efforts are being backed not just by other rogue states, like North Korea, but by no less than Russia itself, which has abandoned the cautiousness toward proliferation that was demonstrated by the former Soviet Union. Despite Washington's efforts to stop these trends through the United Nations monitoring of Iraq and limited sanctions against Iran, the build-up of Middle Eastern missile capabilities has only worsened, especially since 1998 which saw Iran's testing of the 1,300-kilometer-range Shahab-3 and the total collapse of the UN monitoring effort. Iraq has preserved considerable elements of its missile manufacturing infrastructure, continuing to produce short-range missiles, and with large amounts of missile components still unaccounted for. Nor did the administration stop the flow of Russian missile technology to Iran. "The proliferation of medium-range ballistic missiles," CIA Director George Tenet testified on March 21, 2000, "is significantly altering strategic balances in the Middle East and Asia." Clearly, the Middle East is far more dangerous for Israel than it was in 1991 at the end of the Gulf War. While diplomatic energies over the last decade have been focused on the Arab-Israeli peace process, a major policy failure has taken place that has left Israel and the Middle East far less secure. Not only will Israel's vulnerability increase, but on the basis of these planned missile programs, the vulnerability of Europe and the Eastern United States is likely to be far greater in the next five to ten years, as well. Thus, an entirely new strategic situation is emerging in the Middle East requiring far more intense efforts in ballistic missile defense on the part of the states of the Atlantic Alliance in order to assure their own security and enhance Middle Eastern regional stability. With Russia playing such a prominent role in the disintegration of key elements of the proliferation regime, Moscow's objections to robust missile defenses on the basis of the ABM Treaty should not serve as a constraint on the development and deployment of future missile defense systems. The Russian argument that the ABM Treaty is the cornerstone of global arms control rings hollow. The arms control regime for the Middle East has completely broken down and cannot reliably serve as the primary basis for protecting national security in the new strategic environment of this region. The most promising way of assuring the defense of Israel, the U.S., and the Western alliance is through a concerted effort to neutralize the growing missile threat with robust missile defenses, combined with the deterrence capabilities that they already possess.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Cold War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Soviet Union

480. Russia — Intelligence Influence

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
08-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The recent increase in arrests on espionage charges and expansion of activity by Russia's security and intelligence agencies appears to be signalling a reversion to aggressive Cold War tactics. They are seeking to increase their political influence and appear to be testing the limits of the 'civilised' intelligence competition which has evolved in the last decade. While Moscow has the means and apparent will to intensify intelligence competition, its clumsy and outdated methods threaten the country's commercial interests and could harm broader foreign policy goals.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Cold War
Political Geography:
Russia